Severe Thunderstorm Warning 67, NWS Grand Forks, ND

704 
WWUS53 KFGF 300417
SVSFGF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1117 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2019

MNC007-089-135-300445-
/O.CON.KFGF.SV.W.0067.000000T0000Z-190630T0445Z/
Marshall MN-Roseau MN-Beltrami MN-
1117 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2019

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1145 PM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN MARSHALL...SOUTH CENTRAL ROSEAU AND NORTHWESTERN
BELTRAMI COUNTIES...

At 1117 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Gatzke, or 23
miles northeast of Thief River Falls, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

This severe storm will be near...
  Gatzke around 1125 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4842 9639 4863 9571 4840 9550 4832 9632
TIME...MOT...LOC 0417Z 269DEG 32KT 4840 9589 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

AM

057 
WWUS53 KFGF 300436
SVSFGF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1136 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2019

MNC007-089-135-300445-
/O.EXP.KFGF.SV.W.0067.000000T0000Z-190630T0445Z/
Marshall MN-Roseau MN-Beltrami MN-
1136 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2019

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN MARSHALL...SOUTH
CENTRAL ROSEAU AND NORTHWESTERN BELTRAMI COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 1145
PM CDT...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  However small hail
and heavy rain are still possible with remaining thunderstorms.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 500 AM CDT for
north central and northwestern Minnesota.

Remember, a Severe Thunderstorm Warning still remains in effect for
southeastern Marshall County and northwest Beltrami County. 

LAT...LON 4842 9639 4863 9571 4840 9550 4832 9632
TIME...MOT...LOC 0435Z 255DEG 42KT 4845 9559 

$$

AM

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1003 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 953 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2019

Strong capping and lack of strong surface heating (due to
morning/afternoon convection) prevented a significant portion of
the area from destabilizing this evening. Current focus is on an
area of weak surface convergence from Hallock MN to Carrington ND
where new cells have eroded capping sufficiently enough to
maintain updrafts beyond the freezing level. Updated rain chances
to focus on the evolution of this region as it progresses
eastward. However, these storms are moving northeast toward
northwest MN where SPC mesoanalysis shows strong shear and
instability weaken considerably, so may be difficult for semi-
discrete storms to maintain strength long enough to reach severe
limits. Most likely scenario at this point seems to be one in
which storms merging into a MCS with severe wind threat given
strong 850mb jet nosing up the RRV.

UPDATE Issued at 634 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2019

Updated aviation discussion for 00z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2019

The exiting mesoscale convective complex brought severe weather to
parts of ND and even a little into NW MN this morning/early
afternoon. The rain cooled air from the thunderstorms put a damper
on heating today, thus cancelled the heat advisory for all
counties except the far SW. Severe storms still look to be
likely this evening with a growing tornado threat in the western
zones. The latest Supercell Tornado Parameter (STP) has an area
up to 9 over southcentral ND...and the favorable conditions are
expected to drift east over the next few hours. The SPC has a 10%
tornado area in the far west in their Enhanced Risk. Discrete
supercells are expected right away with hail/wind/tornado all a
concern across eastern ND, esp the Devils Lake to Valley City area.
Models hint the storms may morph into a line and move east...most
likely across the northern Red River Valley and into NW MN.
Although the best chance the line will affect the north...it is
possible the whole area will see this line of storms later
tonight.

Temps stay warm tonight...with lows in the upper 60s. After that a
few showers/storms may affect the far south tomorrow, but most of
the activity should be to the south of the area. Highs will be
mostly in the 80s on Sunday.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2019

The overview is that the large scale pattern over the Northern
Plains will become more westerly early next week as ridge breaks
down and upper low drops out of the Arctic into northern Manitoba
through the first part of the week. Eventually southwest flow will
redevelop for a time, but there is little change in 500 heights, so
temps through the extended will tend to be near (or slightly below)
normal in the upper 70s/lower 80s for highs.

These pattern shifts will keep an active storm track within the
vicinity of our CWA, resulting in several opportunities for shower
and thunderstorm chances through the extended period. A period of
potentially better severe chances is Tue and Tue night where strong
synoptic forcing in the form of an upper jet streak, mid level
shortwave trough, and surface cold front are shown to drop near or
over our CWA. At least elevated instability would be supported with
adequate deep unidirectional shear to suggest the threat of hail and
damaging wind.

Looking ahead to Independence Day and Friday, increasing southwest
flow will raise the possibility for more shower and thunderstorm
activity. Details in these later periods are still uncertain though
and will be refined with time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 634 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2019

Expect VFR conditions early this evening, during a break before
another round of thunderstorms builds east into the region from
central ND. Exact timing of storms is still uncertain but most
probable scenario is laid out in TAFs. KDVL will see the earliest
impacts with TSRA and potential for hail and damaging wind gusts in
the 01-04z timeframe. TSRA will spread east toward GFK, TVF, and
perhaps FAR around midnight and into northwest and west central MN
between 06-12z. Ahead of storms, expect generally south winds at 10-
20 kts with gusts up to 30 kts. After the cold front passes through
overnight, winds will become northwest with VFR conditions gradually
returning from northwest to southeast on Sunday.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

UPDATE...BP
SHORT TERM...Knutsvig
LONG TERM...WJB
AVIATION...BP

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
657 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2019

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-010000-
West Polk-Norman-Clay-Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-
West Marshall-East Marshall-North Beltrami-Pennington-Red Lake-
East Polk-North Clearwater-South Beltrami-Mahnomen-
South Clearwater-Hubbard-West Becker-East Becker-Wilkin-
West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant-Towner-Cavalier-
Pembina-Benson-Ramsey-Eastern Walsh County-Eddy-Nelson-
Grand Forks-Griggs-Steele-Traill-Barnes-Cass-Ransom-Sargent-
Richland-Western Walsh County-
657 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across central ND
this evening and move east across eastern ND this evening and
into northwestern MN overnight. Hail over 2 inches in diameter,
damaging winds over 75 mph, and tornadoes are all expected
tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Thunderstorms will be possible throughout much of the next week
with the best chances on Tuesday and Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
927 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2019

MNZ004-005-007-008-300330-
East Marshall MN-Kittson MN-Roseau MN-West Marshall MN-
927 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN MARSHALL...KITTSON
AND SOUTHWESTERN ROSEAU COUNTIES UNTIL 1030 PM CDT...

At 926 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles northwest of Noyes to near Lancaster to
near Strandquist. Movement was east at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail will be possible with these storms.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Strandquist and Newfolden around 930 PM CDT.
  Lake Bronson around 940 PM CDT.
  Middle River and Lake Bronson State Park around 950 PM CDT.
  Strathcona around 955 PM CDT.
  Haug, Gatzke and Leo around 1030 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Grand Forks.

&&

LAT...LON 4883 9619 4839 9567 4834 9646 4878 9690
      4897 9724 4900 9723 4900 9646
TIME...MOT...LOC 0226Z 263DEG 19KT 4908 9727 4880 9678 4844 9636

AM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1038 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2019

MNZ004-005-300400-
Kittson MN-Roseau MN-
1038 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN KITTSON AND
NORTHWESTERN ROSEAU COUNTIES UNTIL 1100 PM CDT...

At 1037 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Caribou, or 25 miles west of Roseau, moving east at 50 mph.

Nickel size hail will be possible with this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Pinecreek around 1100 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Grand Forks.

&&

LAT...LON 4893 9556 4878 9629 4899 9653 4900 9648
      4900 9566
TIME...MOT...LOC 0337Z 255DEG 42KT 4896 9631

AM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1039 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2019

MNZ005-008-009-300415-
East Marshall MN-North Beltrami MN-Roseau MN-
1039 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN MARSHALL...SOUTHWESTERN
ROSEAU AND NORTHWESTERN BELTRAMI COUNTIES UNTIL 1115 PM CDT...

At 1039 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Middle River, or 22 miles north of Thief River Falls, moving east at
50 mph.

Nickel size hail will be possible with this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Middle River around 1040 PM CDT.
  Gatzke around 1100 PM CDT.
  Casperson and Torfin around 1110 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Grand Forks.

&&

LAT...LON 4825 9612 4854 9638 4878 9584 4836 9546
TIME...MOT...LOC 0339Z 255DEG 42KT 4843 9619

AM