Severe Thunderstorm Warning 48, NWS Grand Forks, ND

563 
WWUS53 KFGF 111941
SVSFGF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Eastern ND/Grand Forks ND
241 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2019

NDC073-081-112015-
/O.CON.KFGF.SV.W.0048.000000T0000Z-190611T2015Z/
Ransom ND-Sargent ND-
241 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2019

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 315 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN RANSOM AND NORTHWESTERN SARGENT COUNTIES...

At 240 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Englevale, or
39 miles south of Valley City, moving southeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Ping pong ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind 
         damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Englevale.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Prepare immediately for large hail and deadly cloud to ground
lightning. Seek shelter inside a well-built structure. Stay away from
windows.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4636 9804 4638 9804 4642 9790 4631 9765
      4620 9795
TIME...MOT...LOC 1940Z 322DEG 7KT 4635 9792 

HAIL...1.50IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

CJ

079 
WWUS53 KFGF 112010
SVSFGF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Eastern ND/Grand Forks ND
310 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2019

NDC073-081-112020-
/O.EXP.KFGF.SV.W.0048.000000T0000Z-190611T2015Z/
Ransom ND-Sargent ND-
310 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2019

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN RANSOM AND
NORTHWESTERN SARGENT COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 315 PM CDT...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer pose an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  However small
hail, gusty winds and heavy rain are still possible with this
thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 4636 9804 4638 9804 4642 9790 4631 9765
      4620 9795
TIME...MOT...LOC 2010Z 322DEG 7KT 4630 9787 

$$

CJ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
103 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 102 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2019

Front has moved from just south of Cooperstown to Mayville to
south of Baudette. There has been quite a bit of convective
development along that boundary as we continue to heat, as surface
based CAPE values climb to near 1000 J/kg. Shear is still not very
impressive, but cannot rule out a cell pulsing up to severe for a
brief period this afternoon along and ahead of the front. Best
chances for 1 inch hail and 60 mph wind gusts will be south of
highway 2.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2019

Fairly quiet across the FA early this morning. There are a couple
areas that are a little more active, one over eastern South Dakota
and another over northwest North Dakota. The area over South
Dakota is being driven by a short wave and the low level jet.
Think the SD activity will trend into southern MN this morning,
staying south of the FA. For this FA, will be watching what
happens more with the activity over northwest ND. A short wave and
front are expected to move southeast through the FA today, from
northwest ND. SPC kept the marginal risk for severe weather today,
mainly over southeast ND into adjacent areas of west central MN.
Lots of uncertainty is associated with this, so confidence is
pretty low with this severe threat today.

One of the reasons for the low confidence is that there is
already a decent amount of cloud cover across the area, which
could restrict heating today. Moisture is fairly limited as well,
with surface dew points in the 40s to low 50s and 00z observed
BIS/ABR soundings showing precipitable water values around 0.60
inches. Finally, shear values look to remain on the weaker end as
well. So think some stronger thunderstorms may be possible, but
severe storms would be isolated. The front will move through the
FA during peak heating, so prime time for storms would be in the 2
to 8 pm time frame. There may be some lingering showers and weak
storms after 8 pm tonight, but think most activity will fade away
just after midnight. Another thing to watch by late afternoon into
the early evening will be a short period of gusty winds behind
the cold front. Stuck in some gusts up to about 35 mph or so,
mainly along and west of the Red River Valley.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2019

Wednesday looks to stay quiet, with surface high pressure moving
back into the area. Temperatures will remain on the cool side, but
it looks to be fairly sunny in the morning, with a little more
cloud cover by the afternoon.

Northwest flow aloft prevails Wednesday night into Thursday morning.
Slight precipitation chances remain in the forecast for portions of
the FA to the east of the Red River, mainly Thursday afternoon, and
later as the next shortwave pushes across the region. Shower and
thunderstorm chances will become more widespread as we head into
Friday as an axis of FGEN in the 925mb to 700mb layer provides lift
during the afternoon and evening. A few strong to severe storms will
be possible as CAPE values will be in the 1500 to 2500 J/Kg range
(GFS). There remains a rather large spatial and temporal
disagreement between the global models at this time, however, and
changes to the forecast will likely occur.

This model disagreement diverges further as we go further into the
future; however, the ECMWF, FV3, and GFS Operational models all
agree upon the basic pattern where we continue to see a rather deep
H5 low over the Hudson Bay region and a tendency for ridging across
the western US. This will favor a pattern where regular trough
passages are expected across the northern Plains and upper
Midwest.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 102 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2019

VFR conditions as obs show our cumulus and other clouds have been
pretty high based so far. Some of the high resolution models bring
in some sub 3000 ft ceilings with the convection, but not overly
impressed and think with the dew points in the 40s the storm bases
will be higher. Kept 3500 ft or more as storms roll through,
although there could be some brief reductions to visibility. Have
VCTS even at sites behind the front like KGFK and KDVL as showers
should see an uptick in vertical development this afternoon.
Strongest cells will be along and ahead of the front, impacting
KBJI and KFAR. Some gusty winds this afternoon and evening behind
the cold front, so have some mention of over 20 kts. Winds and
convection will both diminish after sunset and conditions will be
fairly quiet overnight into tomorrow morning.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...Godon
LONG TERM...Godon/Lynch
AVIATION...JR

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
349 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2019

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-120900-
West Polk-Norman-Clay-Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-
West Marshall-East Marshall-North Beltrami-Pennington-Red Lake-
East Polk-North Clearwater-South Beltrami-Mahnomen-
South Clearwater-Hubbard-West Becker-East Becker-Wilkin-
West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant-Towner-Cavalier-
Pembina-Benson-Ramsey-Eastern Walsh County-Eddy-Nelson-
Grand Forks-Griggs-Steele-Traill-Barnes-Cass-Ransom-Sargent-
Richland-Western Walsh County-
349 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from 2 pm to
8 pm today, especially from southeast North Dakota into adjacent
areas of west central Minnesota. Quarter size hail and wind gusts
up to 60 mph are the main threats with these storms. In addition,
north wind gusts up to 35 mph are possible late this afternoon
into the early evening, especially along and west of the Red River
Valley.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

There are periodic chances for thunderstorms from Thursday night
through Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Eastern ND/Grand Forks ND
132 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2019

MNZ002-003-022-027-NDZ030-039-111915-
West Becker MN-Clay MN-Mahnomen MN-Norman MN-Traill ND-Cass ND-
132 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN CLAY...NORMAN...
SOUTHWESTERN MAHNOMEN...NORTHWESTERN BECKER...NORTHEASTERN CASS AND
SOUTHEASTERN TRAILL COUNTIES UNTIL 215 PM CDT...

At 132 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Gary to near Perley to near Hunter.
Movement was southeast at 25 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Ada, Twin Valley, Halstad, Ulen, Waubun, Hendrum and Argusville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Grand Forks.

&&

LAT...LON 4715 9566 4714 9566 4696 9626 4704 9699
      4733 9732 4739 9665 4735 9608 4715 9562
TIME...MOT...LOC 1832Z 308DEG 20KT 4733 9622 4719 9667 4725 9721

CJ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Eastern ND/Grand Forks ND
134 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2019

MNZ002-015>017-022>024-111915-
Mahnomen MN-South Clearwater MN-Norman MN-Hubbard MN-East Polk MN-
North Clearwater MN-South Beltrami MN-
134 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN HUBBARD...NORTHEASTERN
NORMAN...SOUTHEASTERN POLK...SOUTHEASTERN BELTRAMI...MAHNOMEN AND
SOUTHERN CLEARWATER COUNTIES UNTIL 215 PM CDT...

At 134 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Pinewood to near Rindal. Movement was east
at 10 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Shevlin around 135 PM CDT.
  Pinewood and Solway around 150 PM CDT.
  Wilton around 215 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by these storms include Camp Thunderbird
East and Camp Thunderbird West.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Grand Forks.

&&

LAT...LON 4741 9467 4735 9467 4715 9564 4735 9609
      4751 9613 4773 9442 4741 9442
TIME...MOT...LOC 1834Z 275DEG 10KT 4760 9518 4751 9608

CJ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Eastern ND/Grand Forks ND
136 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2019

NDZ029-030-038-039-111915-
Steele ND-Traill ND-Barnes ND-Cass ND-
136 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN CASS...SOUTHWESTERN
TRAILL...BARNES AND SOUTHEASTERN STEELE COUNTIES UNTIL 215 PM CDT...

At 135 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Hunter to Oriska to 7 miles south of
Eckelson. Movement was southeast at 20 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Valley City, Casselton, Arthur, Hunter, Tower City, Page and Sanborn.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Grand Forks.

&&

LAT...LON 4663 9841 4675 9844 4688 9844 4726 9793
      4733 9728 4704 9696 4669 9751 4663 9775
TIME...MOT...LOC 1835Z 323DEG 15KT 4726 9726 4694 9778 4683 9832

CJ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Eastern ND/Grand Forks ND
156 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2019

MNZ003-027-NDZ039-111930-
West Becker MN-Clay MN-Cass ND-
156 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL CLAY...NORTHWESTERN
BECKER AND SOUTHEASTERN CASS COUNTIES UNTIL 230 PM CDT...

At 156 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Averill, or 10 miles northeast of Fargo, moving east at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Fargo, Moorhead, West Fargo, Dilworth, Horace, Casselton and Hawley.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Grand Forks.

&&

LAT...LON 4682 9599 4673 9697 4674 9747 4704 9699
      4715 9573 4715 9567 4714 9566 4713 9566
TIME...MOT...LOC 1856Z 269DEG 20KT 4696 9664

CJ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Eastern ND/Grand Forks ND
214 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2019

MNZ017-022>024-028-112015-
East Becker MN-Mahnomen MN-South Clearwater MN-Hubbard MN-
South Beltrami MN-
214 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN HUBBARD...SOUTHEASTERN
BELTRAMI...NORTHEASTERN MAHNOMEN...NORTHEASTERN BECKER AND SOUTHERN
CLEARWATER COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM CDT...

At 213 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
eastern Upper Rice Lake, or 19 miles west of Bemidji, moving east at
20 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Bemidji, Plantagenet Lake, Lake George, Wilton, Lavinia, Rice Lake
and Roy Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Grand Forks.

&&

LAT...LON 4741 9467 4729 9466 4710 9522 4740 9583
      4750 9535 4749 9519 4751 9518 4754 9442
      4741 9442
TIME...MOT...LOC 1913Z 288DEG 19KT 4740 9528

CJ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Eastern ND/Grand Forks ND
231 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2019

NDZ049-052-112015-
Sargent ND-Ransom ND-
231 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL RANSOM AND NORTHWESTERN
SARGENT COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM CDT...

At 231 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Lisbon, or 35 miles southeast of Valley City, moving southeast at 10
mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Lisbon, Sheldon, Englevale, Elliott, Anselm and Venlo.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Grand Forks.

&&

LAT...LON 4619 9794 4637 9803 4650 9771 4663 9748
      4647 9728 4643 9728 4631 9749
TIME...MOT...LOC 1931Z 320DEG 11KT 4646 9766

CJ