Severe Thunderstorm Warning 44, NWS Grand Forks, ND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
240 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2019

Thunderstorms firing ahead of and along a cold front moving
across eastern North Dakota and northwest Minnesota this
afternoon. MU CAPE of 2000 to 3000 J/kg combined with shear of 20
to 45 knots will support severe storms this afternoon and evening.
So far this afternoon the main threats have been heavy rain and
high winds of up to 75 mph. There is also potential for some small
to medium sized hail this afternoon and evening. Some more
discrete multicellular storms remain possible this afternoon, but
the overall trend is moving towards more of a linear convective
mode. Storms expected to continue firing along the cold front as
it moves farther into Minnesota tonight. Thunderstorms will
continue into the overnight, but severe threat should lessen to
diminish around sunset.

Thunderstorms will continue overnight into Sunday morning, mainly
across Minnesota. Some of these storms may still be strong, but
severe will be less likely. After the cold front and thunderstorms
pass Sunday will be quieter and cooler day with high temperatures
in the upper 60s to around 70.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2019

Monday through Wednesday...Northwesterly flow behind this weekend's
system and high pressure will start out the work week cooler than
average and dry. A clipper system moving down into SD late Monday
night and into Tuesday will bring the return of some thunderstorm
chances. At this point shear does not look too impressive for severe
potential but a lot could change in the next few days. A cold front
moving through and high pressure building in for Wednesday will
bring a drying trend, but highs look to stay below 70 with a pretty
cold air mass moving into the region.

Thursday through Saturday...12Z operational GFS run has an upper low
dropping out of Canada, bringing some more precip and unseasonably
cool temps. The ECMWF is warmer with more of an open wave, and the R-
climate percentiles does not show anything indicating that much of a
cold trend. With not a lot of certainty will continue with the
blended solution, with some chance POPs towards the end of the week
and temps near or slightly above seasonal averages.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1249 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2019

Scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms early this evening
with thunderstorms becoming more widespread later this afternoon
into this evening. These showers and thunderstorms are firing
along a cold front moving across eastern North Dakota and
northwest Minnesota. This front will lead to a shift in winds from
the south to the northwest. Gusty winds around 20 to 25 knots this
evening possible with isolated higher gusts possible in
thunderstorms. Ceilings and visibility will remain VFR with some
occasional reductions to MVFR or even IFR in thunderstorms today.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...NC
LONG TERM...JR
AVIATION...NC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
313 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2019

NDZ006-007-014-015-024-090815-
Towner-Cavalier-Benson-Ramsey-Eddy-
313 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Isolated thunderstorms this afternoon could become strong,
especially east of the Devils Lake Basin. Damaging wind gusts and
hail up to one inch in diameter will be the primary threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Another round of thunderstorms is possible Tuesday into Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation not likely.

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ008-016-026>030-038-039-
049-052>054-090815-
West Polk-Norman-Clay-Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-
West Marshall-East Marshall-North Beltrami-Pennington-Red Lake-
East Polk-North Clearwater-South Beltrami-Mahnomen-
South Clearwater-Hubbard-West Becker-East Becker-Wilkin-
West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant-Pembina-
Eastern Walsh County-Nelson-Grand Forks-Griggs-Steele-Traill-
Barnes-Cass-Ransom-Sargent-Richland-Western Walsh County-
313 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected this
afternoon with risks to include damaging wind gusts and up to
ping pong ball sized hail. A tornado or two cannot be ruled out.
Peak risk will occur between 2pm and 6pm.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Another round of thunderstorms is possible Tuesday into Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Eastern ND/Grand Forks ND
244 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2019

MNZ003-027-029>031-NDZ053-082045-
West Becker MN-East Otter Tail MN-Clay MN-Wilkin MN-
West Otter Tail MN-Richland ND-
244 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN CLAY...WESTERN OTTER
TAIL...WILKIN...SOUTHWESTERN BECKER AND NORTHEASTERN RICHLAND
COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM CDT...

At 244 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles north of Muskoda to Barnesville to near
Brushvale. Movement was east at 25 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Fergus Falls, Detroit Lakes, Wahpeton, Breckenridge, Barnesville,
Pelican Rapids and Hawley.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for
northwestern and west central Minnesota...and southeastern North
Dakota.

LAT...LON 4626 9685 4695 9663 4704 9572 4665 9571
      4611 9603
TIME...MOT...LOC 1944Z 270DEG 22KT 4696 9640 4666 9642 4636 9660

CJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
311 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0220 AM     TSTM WND DMG     FINLEY                  47.51N 97.84W
06/08/2019                   Steele             ND   EMERGENCY MNGR

            DAMAGE IN THE TOWN OF FINLEY FROM THUNDERSTORMS TO A
            COUPLE OF BARNS AND AN OLD GARAGE.

&&

JR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
323 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0208 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 NNW FARGO             46.90N 96.83W
06/08/2019  M75 MPH          Cass               ND   ASOS

            PEAK WIND OF 65 KNOTS MEASURED AT THE FARGO /KFAR/
            AIRPORT.

&&

GGUST

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
324 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0256 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 N ADA                 47.31N 96.51W
06/08/2019  M58 MPH          Norman             MN   MESONET

            PEAK WIND MEASURED BY THE NDAWN SENSOR NEAR ADA.

&&

GGUST

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