Severe Thunderstorm Warning 143, NWS Grand Forks, ND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
128 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 128 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2019

Additional adjustments to account for decrease in coverage of
showers. Cold front is just now moving into Devils Lake area,
while rest pf CWA remains worked over from earlier activity.
Additional shower/storm development still possible through the
afternoon (mainly south and east), but severe coverage still
uncertain. Latest CAMs still show potential for stronger storm
development into our southeast CWA in proximity of the better CAPE
axis. BL flow remains out of the north in our south which
traditionally would be a drier direction, however Tds remain in
the mid to upper 60s further north ahead of cold front. Any
clearing could aid in further destabilization, but favorable mid
level lapse rates remain along and south of warm front and this
may not make it into our CWA now that surface pattern has been
locally disrupted. Will continue to monitor south of Highway 200
in MN (south of (I-94 in ND) for any severe potential before 4PM.

UPDATE Issued at 1110 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2019

Adjustment made to account for current trends on radar, with
scattered showers north and widespread showers south transitioning
east in wake of diminished MCS that passed south. Warm front to
our south acting as focus for more organized showers/convection,
with axis of better instability along/south of this front. Morning
severe activity has been remaining south feeding off axis of
better instability with any non-deviant motion within mean flow
showing quick weakening as it approaches our south where
environment is worked over and not as favorable. While we can't
rule out stronger activity this morning clipping our far south
(particularly if there is splitting left movers), but this is a
tough call based on environment and trends so far. Better severe
potential still sets up this afternoon, with potential for warm
front to bulge northward into our south-southeast CWA by early
afternoon. Clearing is uncertain though which lowers confidence on
later activity. Very strong deep layer shear expected to persist
potential is there for a few stronger storms or even supercells to
quickly develop this afternoon. As cold front continues to
progress eastward window narrows and by late afternoon threat
should be over. Will need to monitor evolving trends.

UPDATE Issued at 648 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2019

No changes at this update.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 348 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2019

Water vapor loop indicate an upper low over the southern ALTA/SASK
border and a second upper low was over nw WA.

An mid level trough over se MT will move across the southern Red
River Valley this afternoon. Atmosphere forecast to be quite
unstable south of the area and over the far southern zones this
afternoon. Warm frontal boundary over SD and southern MN will move
north into central MN this afternoon.

More stable air moves in from the west over the northern part of the
forecast area today. Model soundings indicate some cooling occurs in
the lower layers while some warming occurs aloft. Not so in the far
southern Red River Valley where moisture increases in the lower
layers and some drying occurs aloft. Low level jet over southwest MN
shifts to the east this afternoon.

The next short wave will move across northeast SD late Fri night and
Sat morning and produce a threat for showers/thunder in the far
south Fri night.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 348 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2019

Saturday night through Sunday...Flow begins to transition to
northwesterly across the Northern Plains. There is decent agreement
on a reinforcing shortwave coming across ND on Sunday, but the
operational GFS breaks out quite a bit of precip while the ECMWF
doesn't have much at all. Not a lot of moisture to work with and the
operational GFS is a wet outlier on the GEFS plumes, so will keep
precip out for the time being. Temps will be a bit cooler than
average with highs in the 70s.

Monday through Thursday...Strong upper ridge builds over the
Northern Rockies, leaving our region in dry northwesterly flow.
Temps will be warming back up to near to above average as the ridge
axis slowly shifts eastward. There are signs of the ridge breaking
down with a shortwave coming over the top of it by the end of the
period, but confidence is not very high on timing. Kept the minimal
POPs that the blend gave us.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 128 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2019

Showers transitions along Highway 2 corridor this afternoon, with
mainly impacts KTVF to KBJI (only vicinity at KFGF). Can't rule
out a few showers developing further south towards KFAR through
21Z, but confidence was too low to introduce to TAF. Thunderstorms
may redevelop this afternoon south of I-94 mainly in west central
MN, but confidence is decreasing for our area and even it they
did develop impacts appear unlikely at KFAR. A cold front is
moving into DVL area with west-northwest winds 15-20kt, but most
terminals will tend to be light and variable (maybe shifting to
the west around 10kt briefly before sunset).

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

UPDATE...DJR
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JR
AVIATION...DJR

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
135 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2019

MNZ030-031-040-191900-
East Otter Tail MN-Grant MN-West Otter Tail MN-
135 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL OTTER TAIL AND
NORTHEASTERN GRANT COUNTIES UNTIL 200 PM CDT...

At 135 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Dalton, or 11 miles southeast of Fergus Falls, moving northeast at 35
mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Ashby around 140 PM CDT.
  Underwood around 150 PM CDT.
  Clitherall, Battle Lake and southern Glendalough State Park around
  200 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

Persons in campgrounds should consider seeking sturdy shelter until
this storm passes.

&&

LAT...LON 4611 9615 4639 9586 4619 9540 4610 9566
      4611 9577 4607 9577 4604 9585
TIME...MOT...LOC 1835Z 238DEG 31KT 4614 9594

CJ

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