Severe Thunderstorm Warning 122, NWS Grand Forks, ND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
259 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2019

Main impact in the short term forecast is continued chances for
severe weather, both this evening and again on Monday.

This afternoon, visible satellite data shows an unstable airmass
across much of northwest and west central MN. As a weak shortwave
trough aloft passes into the region amidst ridging aloft, moderate
instability, dew points in the 60s to mid 70s, and marginal to
moderate shear, there will continue to be potential for isolated
severe weather development across much of the region. Best chance
for severe weather late this afternoon and this evening will be for
southeast ND and west central MN where mid afternoon satellite data
shows capping is weakest with evidence of isolated to scattered
agitated and glaciated cumulus having already developed. All threats
are possible with isolated to scattered thunderstorms occurring this
evening, including locally heavy rainfall and a tornado or two.

Potential for severe weather will taper off later this evening and
for much of the overnight period. Short term models suggest a
complex of storms will be able to develop across portions of the
southern Canadian prairie overnight. This complex may move into or
brush the forecast area from the north late tonight, mainly
affecting areas north of US Hwy 2. This complex would be propagating
ahead of the main surface low and could pose a small threat for
additional severe weather.

With temperatures only falling into the 60s overnight amidst strong
warm air advection and dew points in the 60s, some guidance shows
potential for patchy fog overnight and early Monday. Monday will
once again be hot and humid with heat index values nearing 100
degrees for portions of the region, especially southeast ND and west
central MN.

Another round of severe weather will be possible for much of the
region (all but the Devils Lake basin) again on Monday as a surface
low propagates eastward across MB, draping a cold front from
northeast to southwest across the forecast area. Marginal bulk
effective shear and moderate instability developing east of the Red
River Valley and along and ahead of the associated surface trough
will bring potential for strong to severe scattered thunderstorms
in Monday afternoon and evening.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2019

Warm and active weather continues with zonal flow/shortwaves
moving over top of upper ridge remains in place through next
weekend. The period will start out in a lull between systems early
on Tuesday but activity looks to pick up again by the evening.
Deterministic models are in pretty good agreement on a fairly wet
mid-week with a few significant shortwaves approaching. QPF
M-climate seems to agree with some high percentile values for
Wednesday and Wednesday night. Shortwaves become impossible to
resolve by the end of the week and into the weekend, but pattern
continues to be active. With the ridge just to our south or
southeast somewhat warmer than average temperatures will remain
with highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 110 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2019

Isolated to scattered severe TSRA are expected to develop across the
southern Red River Valley and areas east in west central MN this
afternoon and early evening, so added low VFR cigs and VCTS mention
when this is most likely for KFAR and KBJI. Elsewhere, cannot rule
out isolated TSRA near other TAF sites but likelihood of this
occurring is lower. Otherwise expect VFR cigs and vsbys across the
region for much of the afternoon and night. Guidance has started to
hint at fog development with southerly winds and high low level
moisture content late tonight and early Monday, but confidence is
low so will leave out of TAF at this time.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...BP
LONG TERM...JR
AVIATION...BP

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
305 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2019

NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-054-152015-
Towner-Cavalier-Pembina-Benson-Ramsey-Eastern Walsh County-Eddy-
Nelson-Grand Forks-Griggs-Steele-Traill-Western Walsh County-
305 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
evening. The main hazards will be large hail up to ping pong ball
size and damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph. Isolated tornadoes and
localized very heavy rainfall are also possible.

The Maple River near Mapleton, the Sheyenne River near Harwood,
and several points along the Red River mainstem between Fargo and
Grand Forks remain high due to the recent rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Periodic thunderstorms are possible throughout the next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required this evening and again on
Monday afternoon and evening.

MNZ001-004>009-013>016-152015-
West Polk-Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-West Marshall-
East Marshall-North Beltrami-Pennington-Red Lake-East Polk-
North Clearwater-
305 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northwest
Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
evening. The main hazards will be large hail up to ping pong ball
size and damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph. Isolated tornadoes and
localized very heavy rainfall are also possible.

The Maple River near Mapleton, the Sheyenne River near Harwood,
and several points along the Red River mainstem between Fargo and
Grand Forks remain high due to the recent rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible Monday afternoon and
evening. The main hazards will be large hail up to ping pong ball
size and damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph. Isolated tornadoes and
localized very heavy rainfall are also possible.

Periodic thunderstorms are possible throughout the rest of the
week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required this evening and again on
Monday afternoon and evening.

MNZ002-003-017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ038-039-049-052-053-152015-
Norman-Clay-South Beltrami-Mahnomen-South Clearwater-Hubbard-
West Becker-East Becker-Wilkin-West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-
Wadena-Grant-Barnes-Cass-Ransom-Sargent-Richland-
305 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
evening. The main hazards will be large hail up to ping pong ball
size and damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph. Isolated tornadoes and
localized very heavy rainfall are also possible.

The Maple River near Mapleton, the Sheyenne River near Harwood,
and several points along the Red River mainstem between Fargo and
Grand Forks remain high due to the recent rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible Monday afternoon and
evening. The main hazards will be large hail up to ping pong ball
size and damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph. Isolated tornadoes and
localized very heavy rainfall are also possible.

Periodic thunderstorms are possible throughout the rest of the
week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required this evening and again on
Monday afternoon and evening.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1034 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2019

NDZ016-026-027-054-141615-
Nelson ND-Eastern Walsh County ND-Western Walsh County ND-
Grand Forks ND-
1034 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN GRAND FORKS...
NORTHEASTERN NELSON AND SOUTHWESTERN WALSH COUNTIES UNTIL 1115 AM
CDT...

At 1033 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Lankin, or 27 miles west of Grafton, moving east at 25 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Lankin around 1035 AM CDT.
  Dahlen around 1045 AM CDT.
  Fordville around 1055 AM CDT.
  Pisek around 1100 AM CDT.
  Forest River Colony and Conway around 1105 AM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Grand Forks.

&&

LAT...LON 4829 9757 4808 9768 4820 9811 4837 9802
TIME...MOT...LOC 1533Z 290DEG 20KT 4826 9796

Hopkins

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
1053 AM CDT SUN JUL 14 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0737 AM     HAIL             2 N SARLES              48.97N 99.00W
07/14/2019  E1.00 INCH       Cavalier           ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TIME ESTIMATED ON RADAR.

&&

JR