Severe Thunderstorm Warning 106, NWS Grand Forks, ND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1025 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1025 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2019

Linear MCS extends along Theta-E gradient with ML CAPE still
around 2500 J/KG ahead of this line (as well as DCAPE 1000-1200
J/KG), which could continue to support potential for severe wind,
though mid level lapse rates are showing a decreasing trends.
Expanded watch into southeast ND and further south in MN where
this instability axis has set up as there could be a window for
severe through 1AM for these locations. We should still see a
weakening trend in intensity of thunderstorms as instability
continues to decrease after midnight through the early morning
hours.

There is a definite cutoff on regional radar in showers further
north and CAMs consensus seems to indicate a possible lull in
activity tonight over our CWA as current showers/thunderstorms
transition south and east and next round arrives towards sunrise
with upper low approaching. Adjusted timing/coverage tonight
through Tuesday to better reflect this trend.

UPDATE Issued at 751 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2019

MCS propagating eastward with multiple reports of severe wind
60mph+. Due to faster propagation now east of previous flood
watch that was cancelled. Some segments in north and far south of
line tending to slow down and with high rain rates localized
flood threat can't be ruled out, but not widespread enough over
or over a large enough part of our CWA to require new flash flood
watch issuance. Will handle with advisories/warnings as needed
when isolated conditions line up. Fast propagation and severe
wind history necessitated issuance of new Severe Thunderstorm
Watch across our MN counties generally north of Highway 200
downstream of previous watch. Wind will be primary threat, though
isolated marginal hail can't be ruled out.

UPDATE Issued at 610 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2019

Adjustments made to account for current thunderstorm
coverage/timing, which is in line (generally) with HREF and
consensus of CAMs as broken thunderstorm clusters (some showing
linear properties on smaller scale) are beginning to expand and
shift east/southeast. Environment is still highlighted by very
moist/buoyant air mass with borderline shear values ("best" shear
in our west). Severe threat associated with clusters will
continue mainly wind within organized segments (isolated hail
threat) and with instability axis ahead of these clusters
extending further south and east decision was made after
coordination to expand watch in ND and into far northwest MN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2019

The Mesoscale discussion issued at 205pm covers the severe threat
over the next several hours.

Regarding the excessive rainfall threat...will issue a flash flood
watch for the Devils Lake basin. Storm movement is parallel to
the boundary so will have training of storms. Rainfall rates will
be intense given the high PWAT environment. The boundary is
expected to remain stationary for several hours until the cold
pool becomes sufficiently strong to lead to more forward
propagation of the convection (thus decreasing the flash flood
threat). Limited the flash flood watch to the Devils Lake basin in
effect until 9pm.

Upper low propagates into central North Dakota by Tuesday
afternoon. Anticipate several rounds of thunderstorms through
Tuesday night. Will need to monitor areas for excessive rainfall
given prolonged period of rainfall potential. Also, cold core
tornado setup (along with marginal hail/wind) possible Tuesday
afternoon where narrow axis of instability sets up.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2019

Showers and storms will diminish during the day on Wednesday in
wake of departing surface system...and high pressure builds over
the region. Return flow on Thursday and Friday will bring
increased warmth and moisture. A weak trof will provide enough low
level convergence to trigger convection again on Friday.

Expect some unsettled weather to return over the weekend...with near
normal temperatures...to end the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 701 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2019

Thunderstorm complex organizing in eastern ND and isolated to
scattered activity ahead of this will spread east and southeast
through the evening and overnight. Should see a period of
potential severe wind gusts through mid evening before activity
weakens. Scattered activity then lingers overnight before
reorganizing during the day Tuesday and increasing in coverage
once again. Strong winds gusts with severe storms can't be ruled
out at terminals (gusts 50kt or higher) through mid evening with
at least isolated hail threats. MVFR CIGS and IFR VIS possible
with most intense thunderstorm activity.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

UPDATE...DJR
SHORT TERM...TG/Lee
LONG TERM...Hopkins
AVIATION...DJR

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1035 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2019

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-091200-
West Polk-Norman-Clay-Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-
West Marshall-East Marshall-North Beltrami-Pennington-Red Lake-
East Polk-North Clearwater-South Beltrami-Mahnomen-
South Clearwater-Hubbard-West Becker-East Becker-Wilkin-
West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant-Towner-Cavalier-
Pembina-Benson-Ramsey-Eastern Walsh County-Eddy-Nelson-
Grand Forks-Griggs-Steele-Traill-Barnes-Cass-Ransom-Sargent-
Richland-Western Walsh County-
1035 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Isolated thunderstorms possible over northeastern North Dakota
and northwest Minnesota during the late morning and early
afternoon period. These storms will remain weaker but could
produce lightning and brief heavy rainfall.

Stronger thunderstorms are expected to develop during the mid to
late afternoon over north central North Dakota between Devils Lake
and Minot. These initial scattered storms will bring a threat of
hail greater than 2 inches, wind gusts up to 70 mph, and possibly
a tornado. By the evening hours, these storms will form into a
line and move east and southeast into much of eastern North Dakota
and northwest Minnesota. As the storms transition into a line,
the main threats will be hail around 1 inch, wind gusts to 70 mph,
and excessive rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Showers and thunderstorms are expected Tuesday, ending Wednesday.
Locally heavy rainfall the main threat. There is also a risk for
isolated severe storms Tuesday afternoon with hail, wind, and a
tornado potential threats. Periodic thunderstorm chances exist
through the late week as well.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
854 PM CDT MON JUL 8 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0735 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 SSE EAST GRAND FORKS  47.90N 97.00W
07/08/2019  E60 MPH          Polk               MN   STORM CHASER

            6 INCH DIAMETER TREES AND LIMBS DOWN

&&

KNUTSVIG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
904 PM CDT MON JUL 8 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0855 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 S BROOKS              47.77N 96.00W
07/08/2019  M55 MPH          Red Lake           MN   MESONET

&&

KNUTSVIG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
907 PM CDT MON JUL 8 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0858 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 NNE PRAIRIE ROSE      46.83N 96.83W
07/08/2019  E70 MPH          Cass               ND   STORM CHASER

&&

KNUTSVIG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
909 PM CDT MON JUL 8 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0739 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 S GRAND FORKS         47.90N 97.07W
07/08/2019  E60 MPH          Grand Forks        ND   BROADCAST MEDIA

            5 INCH TO 6 INCH BRANCHES DOWN

&&

KNUTSVIG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
939 PM CDT MON JUL 8 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0932 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 NW FOSSTON            47.59N 95.76W
07/08/2019  M0 MPH           Polk               MN   ASOS

            FOSSTON ASOS REPORTED 60 MPH WIND

&&

KNUTSVIG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
947 PM CDT MON JUL 8 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0932 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 NW FOSSTON            47.59N 95.76W
07/08/2019  M60.00 MPH       Polk               MN   ASOS

            FOSSTON ASOS REPORTED 60 MPH WIND

&&

KNUTSVIG