Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
320 AM EST Sun Dec 1 2019

.SHORT TERM /Today through Monday/...

Line of showers and embedded thunderstorms continues to move
through the area tonight and continues to be characterized by a
high shear and low CAPE environment. In fact, surface based CAPE
has been nearly non existent with this activity with the
exception of a sliver moving into West Central GA. MUCAPE has been
a different story and has been higher than model projections
across the northern tier. This has allowed for some isolated
robust cores to develop and likely leading to some small hail.
Winds however have remained above the surface for the most part
with no reports of severe wx at this time. With the surface based
CAPE to the south, not out of the question to see an additional
strong storm today but shear should be on the decrease later this
morning.

The entire line should be exiting the area by early afternoon with
much drier conditions filtering in. Flow however, especially
across Central GA remains largely zonal and cold air advection
will remain limited. So low to mid 60s will be the rule from the
Northern metro to all points southward today, even in the post
frontal environment. Winds will be gusty this afternoon with
values in excess of 20 mph quite common.

Attention will then turn to the wintry potential for the far
northern portions on Monday. Strong upper level closed low will
move into the Mid Atlantic states and extending into the local
area. Much will depend on whether we see mostly light snow
showers or a mix across NE GA as far as accumulations go. Right
now, going with a mix for a good portion of the period which would
still yield a quarter of an inch or so in total accumulation.
Should it be primarily snow however, a half inch or maybe even a
little more on the highest peaks would be in the offing. look to
be short of advisory criteria for now but will let day shift take
a fresh look at things.

Deese

.LONG TERM /Monday Night through Saturday/...

The long term period begins with the exiting upper low and drying
conditions. Will be quite cold for Mon day night with upper 20s
for the far north and right around freezing for everyone else in
the forecast area. Will see a clipper type system move through
Tuesday night with lift enhanced across the northern half of the
forecast area. At this time, it appears moisture will be too
shallow for any precip from this system but this will need to be
monitored closely with subsequent forecasts.

Additional dry conditions anticipated in the wake of the Clipper
system and should persist through Thu night. A southern stream
upper level system will then develop and move across the Tennessee
Valley for Friday, Surface low reflection over the lower
Mississippi Valley will result in deep layer moisture advecting
northward out of the Gulf. Will carry likely pops for the north
and west portions for Friday afternoon. At this time, instability
appears limited enough to warrant just SHRA for now and no TS.

A third system looks to affect the area late in the period with
more instability present as surface low tracks well north into the
Northern Plains states. Will carry likely pops with this system
as well but also include Isolated TS for now.

Deese

&&

.AVIATION... 06Z UPDATE...

Line of SHRA and embedded TSRA continues to move through the
terminals. This will eventually lead to cigs dropping to MVFR with
even some indications of IFR possible although will not carry in
the current set. Clearing conditions expected later this morning
but winds will continue to increase. Gusts in excess of 20 kts
will be common at all sites.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
High on all elements.

Deese

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          66  38  49  32 /  60   5   5   0
Atlanta         63  37  44  32 /  40   5   5   5
Blairsville     58  31  37  27 /  30  30  30   5
Cartersville    63  36  43  30 /  30  10   5   5
Columbus        68  40  49  33 /  50   5   5   5
Gainesville     62  37  44  32 /  50  10   5   0
Macon           69  40  50  32 /  80   5   5   0
Rome            62  36  43  31 /  20  10   5   5
Peachtree City  65  37  46  31 /  40   5   5   5
Vidalia         71  42  53  32 /  70   5   5   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Deese
LONG TERM....Deese
AVIATION...Deese

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
343 AM EST Sun Dec 1 2019

GAZ044-052>054-066-067-010915-
Fayette GA-Coweta GA-Troup GA-Heard GA-Meriwether GA-South Fulton GA-
343 AM EST Sun Dec 1 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN FAYETTE...COWETA...
NORTHERN TROUP...SOUTHEASTERN HEARD...NORTHWESTERN MERIWETHER AND
SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH FULTON COUNTIES UNTIL 415 AM EST...

At 343 AM EST...a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from near Roscoe to Paran...and moving east at 40 mph.

  HAZARD...Winds up to 40 mph.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Newnan, LaGrange, Fayetteville, Franklin, Peachtree City, Tyrone,
Palmetto, Hogansville, Grantville, Moreland, Sharpsburg, Turin, East
Newnan, Corinth, Dunaway Gardens, Cannongate, Harrisonville,
Hillcrest, Wares Crossroads and Glenn.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately.

LAT...LON 3354 8479 3348 8442 3306 8498 3313 8524
      3320 8525
TIME...MOT...LOC 0843Z 282DEG 35KT 3352 8479 3319 8525

WIND...40MPH