Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
509 PM EDT Tue Sep 10 2019

.UPDATE...
Tweaked pops a bit for better coverage across the eastern portions
of the metro area. Also went from areal to coverage for this
evening. Otherwise, no major changes.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 309 PM EDT Tue Sep 10 2019/

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Wednesday Night/...

To begin the short term period, a strong upper-level ridge is
building northward over the southeastern CONUS, which will keep hot
and relatively humid conditions in place over north and central
Georgia throughout the rest of Tuesday and Wednesday. As the upper
ridge has continued to build and rotate across the region, a weak
frontal boundary previously stalled across central Georgia has
become re-oriented from northwest to southeast. This boundary is
acting as a focusing mechanism for diurnally-driven convection. With
deeper moisture steadily increasing underneath the ridge, the
coverage of showers and thunderstorms will be more widespread this
afternoon and early evening, with chance PoPs across the western
half of the forecast area in the vicinity of the boundary, and
slight chance PoPs across the eastern half.

Convection has begun to rapidly develop and will continue to
increase in coverage in the mid-afternoon hours. Widespread
organized severe weather is not expected through the remainder of
this afternoon. However, with SBCAPE values of about 3000 J/kg and
strong low-level lapse rates, it is possible that a few storms
this afternoon could become strong to marginally severe, with
gusty winds being the primary threat. Sub-severe hail, frequent
lightning, and locally heavy rainfall are also possible with any
strong to severe thunderstorms that occur.

The influence of the strong upper-level ridge will keep temperatures
unseasonably warm throughout the short term period. High
temperatures this afternoon will range from 8-14 degrees above
climatological normals, with most areas reaching into the mid to
upper 90s. High temperatures on Wednesday will be slightly cooler
than today, but still 7-12 degrees above normal, mainly reaching
into the mid 90s. Low temperatures mainly in the upper 60s and low
70s will similarly be will above average. Hot afternoon temperatures
combined with increasing humidity will lead to heat index values
between 100 and 103 for much of central and portions of north
Georgia through the rest of the afternoon. Heat indices are
currently expected to remain outside of Heat Advisory thresholds,
but could nonetheless still be dangerous extended exposure or
exertion while outdoors.

King

LONG TERM /Thursday through Tuesday/...

Medium-range models continue to be in fairly good agreement
concerning the larger-scale features through the extended forecast
period. However, there remains a good bit of divergence concerning
the smaller-scale details, especially with respect to the wave
skirting the bottom of the ridge across Florida and the northern
Gulf of Mexico. For now at least, GFS/ECMWF/Canadian models all
taking the wave west toward the central gulf coast or Mississippi
delta. Also a decent bit of variance with the depth of the surface
trough/low. All of this ultimately plays a significant part in the
impacts over the forecast area. Current trends put the main impacts
west of the state, but spread ample moisture into the region. we
should see increasing precipitation chances and at least slightly
lower maximum temperatures by the weekend and into the first half of
next week. This is handled well by the current extended forecast
grids and minimal changes were made with this forecast cycle.

20

CLIMATE...

Records for 09-10

               Max Temperature         Min Temperature
  Station      High        Low         High        Low
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     103 1925     69 2017     75 1939     47 1924
   KATL      97 1925     65 1882     76 1925     49 1969
   KCSG     101 1945     72 1944     76 1964     54 1956
   KMCN      98 1954     69 2017     75 1939     52 1969
                1925                                1966
                1915                                1956

Records for 09-11

               Max Temperature         Min Temperature
  Station      High        Low         High        Low
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     100 1925     65 2017     73 1983     47 1924
   KATL      96 2010     62 1891     75 2010     48 1976
   KCSG      99 2002     65 2017     77 2010     48 1956
   KMCN      98 2016     69 2017     74 2008     46 1956
                1962                    1925

Records for 09-12

               Max Temperature         Min Temperature
  Station      High        Low         High        Low
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     100 1925     67 2017     73 2014     48 1917
   KATL      94 1900     64 2017     75 1925     47 1940
   KCSG      99 1921     72 1935     76 2010     50 1956
                                        1927
   KMCN      97 1962     71 1935     75 2008     48 1940
                1925        1898        1925
                1915

Records for 09-13

               Max Temperature         Min Temperature
  Station      High        Low         High        Low
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     100 1927     67 2006     73 1979     50 1917
   KATL      95 1991     66 1902     75 2018     50 1902
   KCSG      99 1927     68 1959     75 2018     52 1940
                1915                    1973
   KMCN      96 1991     71 1959     75 1979     50 1969
                1911

AVIATION...
18Z Update...
Mainly VFR ceiling and visibility conditions are expected through
the TAF period. A SCT cu field at 050-060 has formed and will
remain in place through the remainder of the afternoon. Some
isolated convection has begun to develop over western Georgia, and
is expected to rapidly increase in coverage, with scattered
SHRA/TSRA anticipated in the mid to late afternoon over west and
central Georgia. A TEMPO group is therefore in place for TSRA from
19-23Z for all sites except AHN. Winds will be primarily SE this
afternoon at 5-8 kts, with the exception of gusty winds with any
thunderstorms that occur. Winds will then shift to E at less than
5 kts after 01Z and remain into the morning hours Wednesday.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
High confidence on all elements.

King

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          70  93  69  95 /  20  10   5  10
Atlanta         72  93  72  95 /  30  10   5  10
Blairsville     64  87  64  88 /  20  40  20  20
Cartersville    70  95  69  96 /  30  10   5  20
Columbus        73  95  72  95 /  30   5   5  10
Gainesville     70  92  70  95 /  20  20   5  20
Macon           71  94  69  95 /  30   5   5  10
Rome            70  95  70  96 /  30  10   5  20
Peachtree City  71  94  70  96 /  30  10   5  10
Vidalia         72  93  71  92 /  20  10   5  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...NListemaa
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...King

Hazardous Weather Outlook...Updated
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1130 AM EDT Tue Sep 10 2019

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-110945-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
1130 AM EDT Tue Sep 10 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central
Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Very warm temperatures combined with increasing humidity will result
in heat index values between 100 and 103 today for much of central
and portions of north Georgia. Try to avoid overexposure to outside
activities and drink plenty of water to stay hydrated.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon into
the early evening, mainly west of a Homer to Atlanta to Macon line.
A few strong storms are possible with brief gusty winds, locally
heavy rain, and frequent cloud-to-ground lightning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday...

Above normal temperatures will persist through Friday. The
combination of temperatures in the 90s coupled with high humidity
will result in heat indices in the upper 90s to around 100 degrees.
Try to avoid overexposure to outside activities and drink plenty of
water to stay hydrated.

Isolated to scattered, mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms
will be possible through Friday. By this weekend, there is the
potential to see more widespread thunderstorms. A few strong storms
are possible with brief gusty winds, locally heavy rain, and
frequent cloud-to-ground lightning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
609 PM EDT TUE SEP 10 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     HAIL             1 NNE BROOKHAVEN        33.87N  84.33W
09/10/2019  E0.70 INCH       DEKALB             GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            REPORTS OF DIME SIZED HAIL IN BROOKHAVEN GA.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1900735

TV

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
610 PM EDT Tue Sep 10 2019

GAZ032-033-043-044-102245-
North Fulton GA-Douglas GA-Cobb GA-South Fulton GA-
610 PM EDT Tue Sep 10 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH FULTON...NORTHEASTERN
DOUGLAS...SOUTHWESTERN COBB AND NORTHERN SOUTH FULTON COUNTIES UNTIL
645 PM EDT...

At 610 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Sweetwater Creek State
Park, or 7 miles east of Douglasville...moving southwest at 5 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Atlanta, Douglasville, Smyrna, Austell, Lithia Springs, Sweetwater
Creek State Park, Six Flags Over Georgia, Sandtown and Mableton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3387 8459 3377 8445 3365 8462 3376 8474
TIME...MOT...LOC 2210Z 038DEG 5KT 3374 8461

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...50MPH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
611 PM EDT TUE SEP 10 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     HAIL             1 ESE DUNWOODY          33.94N  84.32W
09/10/2019  E0.70 INCH       DEKALB             GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            DIME SIZED HAIL REPORTED IN DUNWOODY GA.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1900736

TV

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
614 PM EDT Tue Sep 10 2019

GAZ067-068-102245-
Meriwether GA-Pike GA-
614 PM EDT Tue Sep 10 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN MERIWETHER AND PIKE
COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM EDT...

At 614 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Hilltop, or near
Zebulon...moving west at 10 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Zebulon, Molena, Meansville, Gay, Alvaton, Hilltop, Lifsey Springs
and Imlac.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3312 8430 3304 8430 3300 8461 3318 8461
      3316 8442
TIME...MOT...LOC 2214Z 089DEG 9KT 3310 8446

WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
617 PM EDT Tue Sep 10 2019

GAZ057-102245-
Henry GA-
617 PM EDT Tue Sep 10 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN HENRY COUNTY UNTIL
645 PM EDT...

At 617 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was near Luella, or near
McDonough...moving west at 10 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
McDonough, Hampton, Locust Grove, Blacksville and Luella.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3343 8430 3344 8429 3347 8429 3344 8409
      3339 8407 3334 8411 3335 8425 3335 8431
TIME...MOT...LOC 2217Z 099DEG 9KT 3339 8421

WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
621 PM EDT Tue Sep 10 2019

GAZ092-104-102245-
Schley GA-Sumter GA-
621 PM EDT Tue Sep 10 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN SCHLEY AND SUMTER
COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM EDT...

At 621 PM EDT...a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from near New Era to near Methvins...and moving west at 10
mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Americus, Leslie, Andersonville, De Soto, Desoto, Lamar, New Era, La
Crosse, Huntington, Pennington, Friendship, Maddox, Methvins and
Bumphead.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3215 8443 3221 8414 3219 8413 3219 8411
      3211 8400 3210 8400 3209 8398 3207 8399
      3206 8398 3205 8398 3205 8397 3204 8396
      3191 8412 3192 8421
TIME...MOT...LOC 2221Z 074DEG 8KT 3215 8415 3208 8405

WIND...40MPH