Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
320 PM EDT Tue Jul 23 2019

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Wednesday Night/...

Better precipitation chances already starting to shift into the
southern and eastern reaches of the forecast area along and ahead of
the low-level convergence zone. Drier airmass hanging back to the
northwest of the forecast area, but poised to move into the northwest
this afternoon. Will keep the general POP trends relatively unchanged
with likely/categorical POPs shifting into the southeast this
afternoon and chance POPs diminishing from the northwest as we head
into the evening. Southeast corner of the forecast area warmed nicely
with decent sunshine through the morning, so a few strong to
marginally severe storms still possible this afternoon. Threat should
be shifting east of the area as we head into the evening. Clouds
diminish across the north and west this evening, but linger through
the overnight period across central Georgia. Frontal boundary stalls
across south Georgia by tomorrow. Drier airmass makes good progress
into the area from the northwest, ending precipitation chances across
the majority of the area by tomorrow morning. Uncertainty concerning
whether or not the drier airmass completely clears the area persists,
and I have kept the low POPs across the southeast corner of the
forecast area through the day tomorrow, however confidence is low.

Biggest change will be the mild (at least for late July) temperatures
over the next 36 hours. Noticeably cooler temperatures expected
through the short-term forecast period.

20

.LONG TERM /Thursday through Tuesday/...

Not a bad way to start off the extended when talking about near
record or record low temperatures.  Per NBM guidance both Columbus
and Macon should be close Thursday AM with dewpoints in the upper
50s to low 60s area wide.  In the upper levels, 500mb trof will
dominate the eastern half of the country for the first part of the
extended into the weekend.  Surface front which pushes through the
state today will become stationary across the northern Gulf coast
and North Florida.  This pattern starts to break down by Saturday as
the Bermuda ridge starts to build back in and a moist flow off the
Gulf returns to the region.  With the return flow comes an increase
in diurnal showers and storms to near climo levels each afternoon
beginning Saturday and remaining in place through Tuesday.  The
pattern overall returns to more summertime-like for the second half
of the extended and temps return to near normal Saturday through
Tuesday as well.

Tropics...The only possible fly in the ointment with the forecast is
the fact that a late July front will push through the region and
stall across the northern Gulf this week and weekend.  GEFS and EPS
surface pressure probs aren't at the moment too keen on anything
developing along the old boundary, however, the 06z NAM did attempt
to develop a small feature late Friday into Saturday in the Northern
Gulf.  The 12z run of the NAM has backed off.  Nonetheless...it will
be something to watch and NHC has posted a 20% prob across the
region in the 5 day outlook.

Stellman

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...

Still a mixture of mainly MVFR and VFR conditions across the
forecast area. Should see predominately VFR conditions by mid to
late afternoon, outside of scattered to widespread convection.
Atlanta metro TAF sites and KAHN should see predominately VFR
conditions through the forecast, outside of brief MVFR or lower
conditions accompanying any brief periods of convection through the
afternoon. Will see MVFR or lower ceilings redeveloping across
central Georgia overnight, including the KMCN and KCSG TAF sites.
Both should see VFR conditions return by 12-16Z tomorrow. West to
northwest winds 7-12kt, becoming north to northeast 5-8kt between
00Z and 06Z most areas.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...

Medium through the early evening, especially concerning ceiling
trends and precipitation chances. High after this evening.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          65  86  64  88 /  20   0   5   0
Atlanta         67  83  64  87 /  20   5   0   0
Blairsville     57  80  57  79 /  10   0   5   5
Cartersville    63  84  62  88 /  10   0   0   0
Columbus        68  86  65  90 /  50   5   0   5
Gainesville     64  83  63  85 /  10   0   5   5
Macon           67  86  64  90 /  60  10   5  10
Rome            63  84  62  89 /   5   0   0   0
Peachtree City  66  84  63  87 /  20   5   0   0
Vidalia         69  85  67  89 /  80  30  10  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...20

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
102 PM EDT Tue Jul 23 2019

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-241715-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
102 PM EDT Tue Jul 23 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Widespread showers and thunderstorms continue to develop along a
cold front as it pushes southward across the area this afternoon.
By this evening, activity should be confined to central Georgia.
A few storms could be strong to severe with the main threats of
heavy rain, cloud to ground lightning and gusty winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday...

Most of the area should be dry on Wednesday through Friday, with
just some isolated thunderstorm potential across the Interstate 16
corridor. Chances increase slightly for the weekend area wide,
though there is still uncertainty this far out in the forecast on
the amount of coverage.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested but spotters are encouraged
to submit reports of severe weather or flooding through the web
by going to weather.gov/atlanta.

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>