Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
305 PM EDT Sat Jul 13 2019

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Sunday Night/...

Moist tropical airmass with tall skinny CAPE allowing for scattered
showers/storms this afternoon into evening with enhanced moisture
bands well east of the landfalling TS Barry centered over the LA
coast. High PWATs near 2 inches will allow for very efficient
rainfall with any convection, which has trended close to the main hi-
res consensus as a zone across the northeast half of the CWA pushing
NEWD. The area farther south across central GA had earlier
cloud/shower coverage and less available conditional instability
with the solar sheltering so has overall more isolated/diminished
coverage, though development could quickly regenerate given this
environment. Should see an overall lull in precip overnight.

For Sunday, thermal profiles indicating some drier low/mid levels
resulting in some lower PWATs and expected less overall coverage of
showers/storms, though will carry generally chance pops for
diurnally enhanced convection.

Near normal temps thru fcst period.

Baker

&&

.LONG TERM /Monday through Saturday/...

No major changes made to the extended forecast. The long term
portion of the forecast begins with what will most likely be
Tropical Depression Barry inland to our west. As Barry continues to
progress inland, high pressure builds over the rest of the
southeastern states and the remnants of Barry are expected to track
over the high pressure before becoming swept up into the westerly
flow north of the local forecast area. The primary impacts from the
storm are still expected to be west of the area, but with tropical
moisture overspreading the local area and PW values around 2 inches
at times, showers and thunderstorms will be possible through the
extended with periods of heavy rain possible at times. Increased
moisture across the area will also help to enhance coverage of
showers and thunderstorms across the area through the extended. QPF
values over the next 7 days are around a quarter of an inch to about
2 inches, with the highest amounts across northern Georgia. Locally
higher amounts will be possible.

Temperatures through the extended are expected to be in the 80s to
the 90s across the area, with a warming trend as we approach next
weekend. Overnight low temperatures will be on a warming trend as
well but overall will be in the mid 60s to mid 70s, up to about 7
degrees above average.

Reaves/01

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
Area of SHRA/TSRA with greater coverage close to the northern
sites this afternoon with possible associated MVFR cigs/vsbys
(might be an hour or two later for southern sites). Precip
tapering off overnight and lingering alto deck then again
SHRA/TSRA chances for Sunday afternoon but expected less overall
coverage than today. CSG could have morning MVFR vsbys with BR or
FG. Winds mainly on west side 7-10 kts, light to calm overnight,
then 4-6 kts Sunday. Higher VRB gusts possible with any TSRA.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium on overall precip coverage.
High on all else.

Baker

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          72  89  71  91 /  60  30  20  20
Atlanta         73  89  73  89 /  50  30  20  30
Blairsville     66  81  65  83 /  60  50  30  30
Cartersville    71  87  71  90 /  60  40  30  30
Columbus        74  92  74  92 /  40  40  20  30
Gainesville     71  86  72  88 /  60  40  20  30
Macon           73  93  73  94 /  40  30  20  20
Rome            71  89  71  89 /  60  40  30  30
Peachtree City  72  90  72  90 /  50  30  20  30
Vidalia         74  94  74  96 /  40  30  20  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Baker
LONG TERM....Reaves/01
AVIATION...Baker

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1121 AM EDT Sat Jul 13 2019

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-141530-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
1121 AM EDT Sat Jul 13 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Scattered thunderstorms can be expected, especially during the
afternoon and evening hours. Some strong thunderstorms will be
possible. The main hazards will be strong wind gusts, heavy
rainfall, and frequent lightning. Heavy rainfall could lead to
localized flooding in flood prone areas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday...

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms can be expected each day with
the greatest thunderstorm chances during the afternoon and
evening hours. Strong to isolated severe storms will be possible
and could produce strong gusty winds, frequent lightning and
heavy rainfall. Heavy rainfall could lead to localized flooding
in flood prone areas.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected through tonight, but spotters
are encouraged to report any wind damage, heavy rainfall or
flooding.

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