Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
321 PM EDT Thu Jul 11 2019

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Friday Night/...

18Z special sounding shows the very dry air above 600mb evident on
the 12Z sounding remains in place over the region. Below that, very
moist air mass persists with a very tropical looking lapse rate.
This is keeping a tall, "skinny", CAPE profile over the area. Having
a hard time generating much lightning over all but the far north
where slightly steeper lapse rates are evident and a stalling
surface front is helping to enhance lift a little bit. This weak
front will get hung up along our northern border through the short-
term forecast period in the face of strong southerly low-level flow.
Except for this persistent, very moist southerly flow, the tropical
system in the Gulf of Mexico is not expected to have significant
impacts on the forecast area through Friday night. Best chances for
precipitation will still be somewhat diurnally oriented, but I am
keeping at least slight chance POPs through the overnight periods.
Stationary boundary across the far north and the possible
interaction with some of the outer bands of the Gulf tropical system
across the far south will see highest POPs across those regions.

20

.LONG TERM /Saturday through Thursday/...

Only tweaks to the long term based on the latest guidance.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
What is forecast to be Hurricane Barry is expected to be making
landfall somewhere along the Louisiana coastline to start the long-
term forecast period on Saturday. While model guidance as well as
the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center have both
shifted slightly eastward this morning, the forecast for the local
area remains largely the same with primary impacts remaining west of
the state. Abundant moisture characterized by PWs of 2+" will
interact with a weak stationary front lingering over north Georgia
to produce a good coverage of showers and thunderstorms on Saturday
while the tropical system moves inland across LA/MS. Based on this
forecast track, scattered convective coverage can again be expected
on Sunday.

The aforementioned weak front will dissipate by early next week as
the remnants of Barry track north of the area across the Ohio Valley
as it becomes absorbed into westerly flow and around the ridge over
the Southeast. As the remnants progress north of the area through
midweek, chance PoPs will be maintained as increased moisture works
back towards to area.

RW

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...

Most areas already up to VFR conditions and I expect VFR conditions
to predominate through 06Z, outside of scattered convection. MVFR or
lower ceilings redevelop across region between 06Z and 12Z, lasting
through 14-16Z. South to southwest winds 4-8kt through 00Z,
diminishing somewhat overnight, generally 4kt or less. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms through 02Z, diminishing to isolated by
06Z. Coverage of showers and thunderstorms increases again to
scattered by 16-18Z Friday.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...

Medium on ceilings, especially timing and duration of MVFR ceilings
tomorrow morning.

High on remaining elements.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          73  90  73  87 /  40  50  50  60
Atlanta         75  88  73  86 /  40  50  50  70
Blairsville     68  82  67  82 /  60  60  50  60
Cartersville    73  90  72  88 /  50  50  50  70
Columbus        75  89  74  86 /  30  60  50  60
Gainesville     73  86  73  85 /  50  50  50  60
Macon           74  90  73  87 /  30  60  40  60
Rome            73  90  72  88 /  50  50  50  70
Peachtree City  74  89  73  86 /  40  50  40  70
Vidalia         75  91  74  90 /  30  60  50  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...20

Hazardous Weather Outlook...Corrected
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
720 AM EDT Thu Jul 11 2019

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-120815-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
720 AM EDT Thu Jul 11 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and
Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms can be expected, especially
during the afternoon and evening hours. Some strong to isolated
severe thunderstorms will be possible. The main hazards will be
strong to possibly damaging wind gusts, frequent lightning and
heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday...

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms can be expected each day with
the greatest thunderstorm chances during the afternoon and
evening hours. Strong to isolated severe storms will be possible
and could produce strong gusty winds, frequent lightning and
heavy rainfall. Heavy rainfall could lead to localized flooding
in flood prone areas.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected through tonight, but spotters
are encouraged to report any wind damage, heavy rainfall or
flooding.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
707 PM EDT Thu Jul 11 2019

GAZ006>008-112330-
Gilmer GA-Union GA-Fannin GA-
707 PM EDT Thu Jul 11 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN GILMER...WESTERN UNION
AND SOUTHEASTERN FANNIN COUNTIES UNTIL 730 PM EDT...

At 706 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Pisgah, or 11 miles
east of Ellijay...moving northeast at 15 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Morganton, Dial, Margret, Pisgah, Stover Creek Shelter, Hurst and
Roy.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3479 8402 3459 8426 3467 8439 3490 8424
TIME...MOT...LOC 2306Z 212DEG 14KT 3469 8429

WIND...40MPH