Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
740 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2019

...00Z Aviation Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Saturday Night/...
Convection has developed already this afternoon in the
moist/unstable airmass in place. The best instability is currently
along the AL/GA state line. PWATS remain high, just under two
inches. With average BL flow 10kt or less, slow moving heavy rainers
are anticipated. The pattern should not change much for tomorrow,
with PWATS just slightly higher. A modified sounding for this
afternoon would show a decent inverted V structure, so an isolated
damaging wind gust cannot be ruled out. Forecast soundings for
tomorrow afternoon show the same setup. As usual, frequent lightning
strikes will also be a hazard. Mid to late afternoon should be the
greatest cover of storms.

With the atmos so moist/unstable, have a hard time removing all pops
from the forecast overnight. Have left in isolated shra/tsra tonight
and tomorrow night.

Apparent T values remain just below 105 degrees, for now both
this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon. Any slight change in T or
Td values could require the issuance of a Heat Advisory...mainly
along and south of Athens to Columbus.

NListemaa

.LONG TERM /Sunday through Friday/...
Only tweaks to the long term based on the latest guidance.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
The long term period begins with high pressure southwest of the area,
with a trough approaching from the west. At this point, models look
to close the low as it pushes south into our area. This will help to
enhance chances for precipitation on Sunday through Wednesday. This
system will continue to be the focus through the end of the long
term as the low moves into the Gulf on Wednesday and remains there
before moving back inland later in the forecast. Being this far out
in the forecast, this system will continue to be monitored for any
tropical development. Overall, showers and thunderstorms are
expected daily, although mainly in the afternoons and evenings. At
least chance pops have been included most afternoons with some areas
of likely pops included on Sunday through Tuesday. Precipitable
water values are also expected to be fairly high through several
days of the long term period, with values ranging from about 1.8 to
2.5 inches at times. As a result, heavy rain will be possible with
any thunderstorms. Otherwise, high temperatures through the extended
will be a few degrees above average with temps in the upper 80s to
lower 90s. Low temperatures are still running about 2 to 7 degrees
above normal with temps in the mid 60s to lower 70s. Heat indices
will also continue to be monitored through the extended as several
days are showing heat indices approaching heat advisory criteria
(105 degrees).

Reaves

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z Update...

VFR conditions expected outside of scattered convection through 06Z.
Convection diminishes to isolated by 06Z with MVFR to IFR ceilings
spreading from east to west across the majority of the forecast area
between 06Z and 14Z. Conditions improve to mostly VFR by 16Z-18Z.
Convection increases in coverage again after 16Z tomorrow, becoming
widespread 18Z through 00Z. Winds will be variable in direction,
generally less than 5kt through 14Z, becoming southwest to west
after.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...

Medium confidence.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          73  90  72  91 /  60  50  40  40
Atlanta         74  90  74  90 /  50  40  40  60
Blairsville     67  84  66  84 /  50  50  40  60
Cartersville    71  92  71  91 /  50  30  30  70
Columbus        76  93  75  93 /  50  40  30  60
Gainesville     72  88  72  89 /  60  40  40  60
Macon           74  91  74  93 /  60  50  50  50
Rome            72  92  71  91 /  40  30  30  60
Peachtree City  73  91  72  91 /  50  40  30  60
Vidalia         74  90  74  92 /  60  50  50  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...NListemaa
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...NListemaa

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
930 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2019

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-061000-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
930 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and
Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight...

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected this afternoon
and evening. Scattered strong thunderstorms can be expected and
isolated severe storms are also possible. The most likely hazards
will be damaging winds, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall.
Small hail will also be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday...

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected each day with
most storms in the afternoon and evening hours. Some strong storms
can be expected and isolated severe storms cannot be ruled out.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
755 PM EDT FRI JUL 05 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0650 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 E DOUGLASVILLE        33.75N  84.72W
07/05/2019                   DOUGLAS            GA   SOCIAL MEDIA

            TREE DOWN NEAR I-20 WESTBOUND AND SR 92

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1900551

NJM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
759 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2019

GAZ081-094-060030-
Peach GA-Crawford GA-
759 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PEACH AND SOUTHEASTERN CRAWFORD
COUNTIES UNTIL 830 PM EDT...

At 759 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was near Sandy Point, or 7
miles east of Roberta. This storm was nearly stationary.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Fort Valley, Byron, Powerville, Miami Valley and Lakewood.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3254 8392 3261 8394 3267 8391 3269 8377
      3267 8376 3260 8374 3251 8377
TIME...MOT...LOC 2359Z 268DEG 2KT 3270 8389

WIND...50MPH

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