Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
229 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2019

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Saturday Night/...
Convection has developed already this afternoon in the
moist/unstable airmass in place. The best instability is currently
along the AL/GA state line. PWATS remain high, just under two
inches. With average BL flow 10kt or less, slow moving heavy rainers
are anticipated. The pattern should not change much for tomorrow,
with PWATS just slightly higher. A modified sounding for this
afternoon would show a decent inverted V structure, so an isolated
damaging wind gust cannot be ruled out. Forecast soundings for
tomorrow afternoon show the same setup. As usual, frequent lightning
strikes will also be a hazard. Mid to late afternoon should be the
greatest cover of storms.

With the atmos so moist/unstable, have a hard time removing all pops
from the forecast overnight. Have left in isolated shra/tsra tonight
and tomorrow night.

Apparent T values remain just below 105 degrees, for now both
this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon. Any slight change in T or
Td values could require the issuance of a Heat Advisory...mainly
along and south of Athens to Columbus.

NListemaa

.LONG TERM /Sunday through Friday/...
Only tweaks to the long term based on the latest guidance.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
The long term period begins with high pressure southwest of the area,
with a trough approaching from the west. At this point, models look
to close the low as it pushes south into our area. This will help to
enhance chances for precipitation on Sunday through Wednesday. This
system will continue to be the focus through the end of the long
term as the low moves into the Gulf on Wednesday and remains there
before moving back inland later in the forecast. Being this far out
in the forecast, this system will continue to be monitored for any
tropical development. Overall, showers and thunderstorms are
expected daily, although mainly in the afternoons and evenings. At
least chance pops have been included most afternoons with some areas
of likely pops included on Sunday through Tuesday. Precipitable
water values are also expected to be fairly high through several
days of the long term period, with values ranging from about 1.8 to
2.5 inches at times. As a result, heavy rain will be possible with
any thunderstorms. Otherwise, high temperatures through the extended
will be a few degrees above average with temps in the upper 80s to
lower 90s. Low temperatures are still running about 2 to 7 degrees
above normal with temps in the mid 60s to lower 70s. Heat indices
will also continue to be monitored through the extended as several
days are showing heat indices approaching heat advisory criteria
(105 degrees).

Reaves

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
Convection has started to develop early this afternoon and will
continue through the evening hours. The tempo group will likely
have to be extended for ongoing convection. The clouds are a bit
pessimistic for the first couple of hours but bkn VFR conditions
are expected for the majority of the afternoon. Winds are also an
issue, they have been light east all morning. Outside of any
thunderstorms, winds should flop back over to the west side with
speeds 5kt or less for the afternoon. May go vrb overnight with
bkn/ovc IFR.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Med confidence all elements.

NListemaa

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          73  90  72  91 /  60  50  40  40
Atlanta         74  90  74  90 /  50  40  40  60
Blairsville     67  84  66  84 /  50  50  40  60
Cartersville    71  92  71  91 /  50  30  30  70
Columbus        76  93  75  93 /  50  40  30  60
Gainesville     72  88  72  89 /  60  40  40  60
Macon           74  91  74  93 /  60  50  50  50
Rome            72  92  71  91 /  40  30  30  60
Peachtree City  73  91  72  91 /  50  40  30  60
Vidalia         74  90  74  92 /  60  50  50  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...NListemaa
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...NListemaa

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
930 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2019

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-061000-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
930 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and
Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight...

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected this afternoon
and evening. Scattered strong thunderstorms can be expected and
isolated severe storms are also possible. The most likely hazards
will be damaging winds, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall.
Small hail will also be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday...

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected each day with
most storms in the afternoon and evening hours. Some strong storms
can be expected and isolated severe storms cannot be ruled out.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
306 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2019

GAZ034-035-047-051930-
Walton GA-Barrow GA-Gwinnett GA-
306 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN WALTON...BARROW AND
NORTHEASTERN GWINNETT COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM EDT...

At 306 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Harbin, or near
Winder...moving southeast at 15 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Lawrenceville, Winder, Suwanee, Buford, Auburn, Dacula, Bethlehem,
Carl, Fort Yargo State Park, Bold Springs, County Line, Windsor,
Harbin, Russell and Hog Mountain.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3403 8369 3392 8362 3391 8364 3390 8363
      3389 8363 3386 8381 3398 8406 3405 8405
      3411 8399
TIME...MOT...LOC 1906Z 294DEG 12KT 3397 8383

WIND...40MPH

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