Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
321 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2019

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Tuesday Night/...
Main concern is yet another round of strong/severe convection. As
mentioned earlier, timing a bit delayed from previous events last
weekend due to some extensive high/mid clouds. Even within these
thick high clouds, convection firing in far northern GA as of
this writing and expected to increase along zone of leftover
moisture from earlier MCS in MS/AL currently extending from north
GA to central AL. CAPE currently already at 3500 J/kg with steep
lapse rates over WC GA with 0-6km bulk shear weak but still
around 15-20kts. Damaging wind again main threat in this pattern
with heavy rain also a concern.

The good news is once the storms diminish this evening, we should
have a mostly sunny day Tuesday with only a small chance of
SHRA/TSRA over far western areas in the afternoon.

SNELSON

.LONG TERM /Wednesday through Monday/...
Extended period begins with a weak zonal flow in the mid levels
across the southern portion of the US as we transition out of the
active pattern that has dominated the region since late last week.
Wednesday and Thursday appear to be the lowest pop days of the
extended as come ridging tries to develop and dry air in the mid
levels suppresses storm development.  By Late Thursday into the
weekend, easterly flow returns along with moisture increase which
will coincide with increased afternoon convection back to near
normal levels. The ECMWF is a little more aggressive with cutting off
a weak upper low over the mid MS valley by Friday with only a weak
reflection on the GFS.  Regardless, with no real suppression
mechanism going into the weekend, climo to slightly above climo
afternoon and evening pops will be possible for the remainder of the
extended.

Stellman

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
VFR conditions but expect sct SHRA/TSRA after 19Z at most
airports. Should dissipate after 00Z. W winds will gust to 22kt
this afternoon with stronger gusts possible in TSRA, decreasing
after 00Z. VFR conditions with no SHRA/TSRA expected Tuesday.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium confidence on TSRA timing.
High confidence on all other elements.

SNELSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          70  90  68  91 /  50  10   5  10
Atlanta         71  88  70  89 /  50  10   5  20
Blairsville     64  82  60  84 /  40  10   5  20
Cartersville    68  89  66  89 /  40  10   5  20
Columbus        74  92  72  93 /  40  20  10  20
Gainesville     69  87  67  87 /  50  10   5  10
Macon           72  93  70  94 /  40  10  10  20
Rome            68  89  66  89 /  30  10  10  20
Peachtree City  70  90  68  90 /  50  20   5  20
Vidalia         75  94  72  95 /  20  10   5  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...SNELSON
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...SNELSON

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
504 AM EDT Mon Jun 24 2019

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-251000-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
504 AM EDT Mon Jun 24 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected again
today. A few strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible with
the primary hazards being damaging wind gusts, large hail,
locally heavy rainfall and frequent lightning strikes.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday...

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected across the area
Tuesday through Sunday, primarily in the afternoon and evening
hours. An isolated severe thunderstorm cannot be ruled out.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

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