Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
940 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2019

.UPDATE...

Area under a bit of a lull in precipitation coverage and intensity
this evening. Adjusted POPs and weather to reflect these trends.
However, with little change to the overall pattern over the region,
did not drop POPs below chance anywhere through the overnight
period. Also adjusted hourly temperatures/dew points to reflect
current trends and tweaked overnight low temperatures accordingly.

No changes planned to the current Flash Flood Watch area or time
span. Current configuration covers the areas with the highest
rainfall totals over the past 48 hours pretty well.

20

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 745 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2019/

UPDATE...

Decided to add a few counties along the southeastern edge of the
current Flash Flood Watch. 48-hour rainfall totals of 2-5 inches
stretch as far southeast as Columbus, Macon and Warrenton, with the
potential for additional rounds of heavy rainfall over the next 24
hours.

20

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 245 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2019/

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Sunday Night/...

The main concern continues to be the potential for rounds of
heavy rain. Showers and storms are developing over se AL and
riding the flow up the I-85 corridor into the the ATL metro
area and n GA, where it is less unstable at this time.
This pattern and the potential for future rounds of heavy rain
prompted the need for a Flash Flood Watch for much of north and
portions of west central GA.

This is due to a moist upper level low pressure system over the
OH/TN valleys pumping deep moisture over the area with disturbances
riding in the flow. The upper system is forecast to weaken some and
drift over the forecast area through the period. In time, this
should diminish the heavy rainfall potential although a moist
airmass will continue over the area.

Forecast low temperatures are running about 4-10 degrees above
normal across much of the area tonight and similar for Sunday night.
Forecast high temperatures are running about 2-7 degrees below
normal on Sunday.

Overall confidence is medium.

BDL

LONG TERM /Monday through Saturday/...

No big changes made to the long term. Overall pattern still the same
with the upper low deepening over the southeast states and becoming
a broad trough before moving off the Atlantic Coast. Likely or
higher pops still look reasonable across much of the area. Surface
boundary seems to stall across GA for the first of the week as a
wave develops on the boundary across south GA. Pops taper off
through the end of the week and Friday and Saturday look dry.
Rainfall totals for the period through Wednesday still range from
two to four inches with some areas near five mainly northeast...and
this is in addition to what has already fallen today.

41

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 356 AM EDT Sat Jun 8 2019/

LONG TERM /Sunday Night through Friday/...

Rain, Rain, Go Away! That will be the feeling by the time we start
the long term period, but there's no relief in site until Thursday.

By Monday morning, the low-pressure system that will be anchored
over the Southeastern U.S. will be partially swept up by a shortwave
trough moving through the Eastern CONUS. A cold front will also be
moving into the area Monday morning as well but is expected to stall
through the forecast area. While most of the energy will be swept
up, some remnant of the low-pressure will remain and continue to
pump moisture from the Gulf into the forecast area.

A second shortwave trough will dig into the area by Wednesday night,
which will sweep up the rest of the low-pressure system, push a cold
front completely through the forecast area and replace the current
airmass with a dry area of high pressure. There will still be a 15%
to 30% chance for rain on Thursday as the rain move out of the area
but afterwords clear skies are expected for the first time all week.
Highs in the upper 70s and 80s expected through the week.

Thiem

AVIATION...
00Z Update...

Ample rainfall across the forecast area throughout the day has left
a mixture of mainly MVFR/IFR conditions across the north with
MVFR/VFR across the south. I expect most of the northern half of the
area, including the Atlanta Metro and KAHN TAF sites, will be
consistently IFR or lower by 06Z with a mixture of MVFR/IFR across
the south through the overnight period. Ceilings and visibilities
should begin improving after 12Z with MVFR most areas by 14-16Z and
a mixture of MVFR/VFR by 18Z. Scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms overnight, with increasing coverage and intensity
through the daytime hours Sunday. Winds will be somewhat variable,
but predominately east to southeast, 3-8kt.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...

Medium.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          67  80  69  83 /  70  80  70  80
Atlanta         69  81  70  83 /  70  80  60  80
Blairsville     64  77  63  77 /  70  80  70  80
Cartersville    68  81  68  83 /  70  80  60  80
Columbus        72  84  71  85 /  60  80  60  80
Gainesville     67  78  68  82 /  70  80  70  80
Macon           69  83  69  86 /  60  80  60  80
Rome            70  83  68  83 /  60  80  60  80
Peachtree City  71  82  68  84 /  60  80  60  80
Vidalia         72  86  71  88 /  70  80  50  80

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Sunday evening for the following
zones: Baldwin...Banks...Barrow...Bartow...Bibb...Butts...
Carroll...Catoosa...Chattahoochee...Chattooga...Cherokee...
Clarke...Clayton...Cobb...Coweta...Crawford...Dade...Dawson...
DeKalb...Douglas...Fannin...Fayette...Floyd...Forsyth...Gilmer...
Gordon...Greene...Gwinnett...Hall...Hancock...Haralson...
Harris...Heard...Henry...Jackson...Jasper...Jones...Lamar...
Lumpkin...Madison...Marion...Meriwether...Monroe...Morgan...
Murray...Muscogee...Newton...North Fulton...Oconee...
Oglethorpe...Paulding...Pickens...Pike...Polk...Putnam...
Rockdale...South Fulton...Spalding...Talbot...Taliaferro...
Taylor...Towns...Troup...Union...Upson...Walker...Walton...
Warren...White...Whitfield...Wilkes.

&&

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...20

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1205 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2019

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-091615-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
1205 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

...A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for much of north and a
portion of central Georgia through Sunday evening...

Several waves of numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms
will form across the forecast area this afternoon and tonight. A
few of the storms could be strong with heavy rain, gusty winds,
and lightning possible. Two to three inches of rain will be
possible today and tonight with locally higher amounts possible
where heavy rain persists for prolonged periods of time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday...

...A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for much of north and a
portion of central Georgia through Sunday evening...

Several continuous waves of showers and thunderstorms are
expected through Thursday with the greatest coverage Saturday
through Monday. Any thunderstorms will be capable of gusty winds,
lightning and heavy rain. Flooding could be a growing concern as
we approach the weekend with continued rounds of showers and
storms. Please monitor updates for any changes.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
645 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2019

GAZ061-073-074-084-082315-
Wilkinson GA-Washington GA-Baldwin GA-Hancock GA-
645 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN WILKINSON...
WASHINGTON...SOUTHEASTERN BALDWIN AND SOUTHEASTERN HANCOCK COUNTIES
UNTIL 715 PM EDT...

At 645 PM EDT...a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from near Scottsboro to 8 miles southwest of Deepstep to
near Hebron to near Oconee...and moving northeast at 35 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Sandersville, Tennille, Oconee, Deepstep, Downs, Warthen, Hebron and
Linton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3277 8292 3276 8295 3281 8299 3285 8305
      3289 8309 3293 8318 3298 8326 3321 8293
      3321 8283 3315 8274 3302 8259
TIME...MOT...LOC 2245Z 234DEG 30KT 3301 8316 3296 8309 3292 8303 3288
8299 3283 8295

WIND...40MPH

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