Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
212 PM EDT Sat May 11 2019

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1200 PM EDT Sat May 11 2019/

UPDATE...
Current scattered shower and thunderstorm activity is relegated
largely to far north Georgia in vicinity of the surface front that
will continue to slowly backtrack northward today. Additionally,
an MCV is currently tracking east-northeastward across south-
central Alabama. Further convective development is expected to
occur this afternoon ahead of this MCV as it encounters surface
CAPE already in the 1500-2000 J/kg range across the state. The
activity associated with the MCV will gradually push eastward
through this evening. Additional development is expected to occur
to the west across Mississippi/Alabama this afternoon and evening
as the next impulse approaches. Some strong to severe
thunderstorms remain possible this afternoon and evening with
damaging wind gusts remaining the primary threat. Locally heavy
rainfall can also be expected with PWs above 1.5"

RW

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 754 AM EDT Sat May 11 2019/

UPDATE...

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 450 AM EDT Sat May 11 2019/

SHORT TERM /Today through Sunday/...

To begin the short term period, the forecast area remains underneath
persistent southwesterly flow aloft. A shortwave embedded within the
flow is moving northeastward from south Mississippi and towards
Georgia. Thunderstorms out ahead of this disturbance have been
moving across north Georgia during the overnight hours and another
round is currently entering into the northwest corner of the CWA.
Some thunderstorms associated with this line may be strong and could
be capable of producing gusty winds, frequent lightning, and small,
sub-severe criteria hail. PoPs will remain categorical across far
north Georgia during the morning and through the rest of the day
Saturday, and likely PoPs will also build in across central Georgia
starting around mid-morning as thunderstorms redevelop across the
area.

MLCAPE values are expected to peak around 2000 J/kg this afternoon.
Sufficient deep shear will also be in place during this time to
support some organized convection as the upper-level shortwave
approaches the area, although a focused lifting mechanism will be
lacking which will limit how organized the storms will be. At this
time, the primary severe threat appears to be damaging wind gusts,
although some large hail is also possible with some isolated storms.
PWATs across the area will be in the 1.3 to 1.7 range, and the axis
of the heaviest precipitation is expected to be along and north of
the I-85 corridor. The highest totals are anticipated in the higher
elevations of the far northeast, where 2-3 inches are possible
throughout Saturday. The airmass will remain moist and summer-like
throughout the day on Sunday. Models are furthermore indicating
another strong mid/upper level disturbance and associated surface
front moving through the area throughout the day on Sunday, which
will bring categorical PoPs across the area. With moderate
instability and increased deep-layer shear, there is once again the
potential for some thunderstorms to be strong to severe on Sunday.

King

LONG TERM /Sunday Night through Friday/...

Aside from the departing frontal system that stalls near the
extreme southern part of the CWA late Sunday into Monday with
lingering low end pops for showers or storms, the majority of the
fcst period looks to be benign and ridge dominated. A weak upper
wave and attendant backdoor sfc front could bring a slight chance
of showers or storms to north GA late Wednesday into Thursday,
though guidance still has some timing and moisture discrepancies.

Min temps will actually be rather cool in the upper 40s to low
50s for most areas Monday through Wednesday, then moderate back
to near or slightly above normal for the end of the work week.

Baker

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
An active TAF period will be characterized by periods of shra and
tsra. Shra and tsra will initially continue to increase this
afternoon with the most likely time frame for tsra at ATL area
sites from around 18-22z. Overall shower coverage is expected to
diminish somewhat this evening with shra potential again
increasing by Sunday morning. Additional tsra coverage will again
increase by 14-16z Sunday. Patchy MVFR cigs this afternoon are
expected to continue to gradually increase to VFR in the 040-050
range before MVFR cigs become likely again by 06z Sunday. Winds
will remain SW 05-08kts before increasing to 10-13kts with gusts
to 15-18 kts after 15z Sunday.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium confidence on cigs as well as shra/tsra timing.
High confidence on winds.

RW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          79  66  77  59 /  70  70  80  50
Atlanta         80  66  76  59 /  60  60  80  50
Blairsville     72  61  70  53 /  70  80  80  60
Cartersville    78  65  76  57 /  70  70  80  50
Columbus        84  68  80  63 /  50  50  80  50
Gainesville     76  65  74  58 /  70  70  80  50
Macon           84  67  81  63 /  60  50  70  60
Rome            79  65  77  57 /  70  80  80  50
Peachtree City  81  66  77  59 /  60  50  80  50
Vidalia         88  69  85  67 /  60  60  70  60

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...RW
AVIATION...RW

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1141 AM EDT Sat May 11 2019

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-121545-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
1141 AM EDT Sat May 11 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Scattered thunderstorms are expected today into tonight across
north and central Georgia. A few storms could be strong to severe.
The primary hazards with the strongest storms will be damaging
winds, large hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall.

With moderate to heavy rain persisting across the northern tier,
there may be an emerging flash flood risk as well once the next
batch of storms develop later today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday...

Showers and thunderstorms can be expected Sunday into early
Monday. Some storms could be strong to severe Sunday. The primary
hazards with the strongest storms will be damaging winds, large
hail, frequent lightning, and heavy rain with localized flooding.
A few brief spin up tornadoes are also possible.

There will be a slight chance of thunderstorms late Wednesday
night into Thursday across north Georgia.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1142 AM EDT SAT MAY 11 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0728 AM     TSTM WND DMG     LEAF                    34.58N  83.67W
05/11/2019                   WHITE              GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            UPDATED REPORT FROM WHITE COUNTY EMA. TWO CHICKEN
            HOUSES SUSTAINED SOME ROOF DAMAGE ALONG HWY 115 JUST
            WEST OF DUNCAN BRIDGE ROAD. ADDITIONAL TREES WERE
            UPROOTED, ONE ON A HOUSE, NEAR THE CHATTAHOOCHEE BAPTIST
            CHURCH. TIME UPDATED BASED ON RADAR.

&&

CORRECTED EVENT TIME...LOCATION...REMARKS

EVENT NUMBER FFC1900233

DJN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1239 PM EDT Sat May 11 2019

GAZ006-008-111715-
Union GA-Fannin GA-
1239 PM EDT Sat May 11 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR UNION AND EASTERN FANNIN COUNTIES
UNTIL 115 PM EDT...

At 1239 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Margret, or 12 miles
southeast of Blue Ridge...moving northeast at 45 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Blairsville, Dial, Hemp, Owltown, Margret, Track Rock, Nottely Dam,
Hurst, Ivy Log, Jones Creek and Gaddistown.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. Motorists should
slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3492 8389 3483 8380 3465 8419 3477 8429
      3499 8417
TIME...MOT...LOC 1639Z 235DEG 40KT 3475 8416

WIND...50MPH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
131 PM EDT SAT MAY 11 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0424 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 E PLAINVILLE          34.41N  85.01W
05/11/2019                   GORDON             GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTS DAMAGE TO GAS STATION METAL
            CANOPY. PORTIONS OF THE ROOF WERE PEELED OFF.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1900236

DEESE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
202 PM EDT Sat May 11 2019

GAZ104>106-111830-
Crisp GA-Dooly GA-Sumter GA-
202 PM EDT Sat May 11 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN CRISP...SOUTHWESTERN
DOOLY AND SOUTHEASTERN SUMTER COUNTIES UNTIL 230 PM EDT...

At 202 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Cobb, or 13 miles west
of Cordele...moving northeast at 25 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Cobb, Drayton and Georgia Veterans Memorial St Pk.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3192 8401 3198 8407 3217 8395 3201 8377
TIME...MOT...LOC 1802Z 225DEG 20KT 3198 8400

WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
209 PM EDT Sat May 11 2019

GAZ061-073-074-111845-
Washington GA-Baldwin GA-Hancock GA-
209 PM EDT Sat May 11 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN WASHINGTON...EASTERN
BALDWIN AND SOUTHERN HANCOCK COUNTIES UNTIL 245 PM EDT...

At 208 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Scottsboro, or near
Milledgeville...moving northeast at 15 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Milledgeville, Deepstep, Midway-Hardwick, Devereux, Beulah,
Underwood, Hardwick, Allenwood and Scottsboro.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3298 8312 3300 8312 3301 8315 3300 8315
      3300 8316 3299 8318 3297 8317 3297 8318
      3298 8320 3297 8324 3307 8328 3322 8307
      3302 8295
TIME...MOT...LOC 1808Z 240DEG 13KT 3304 8320

WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
221 PM EDT Sat May 11 2019

GAZ083-084-111845-
Wilkinson GA-Twiggs GA-
221 PM EDT Sat May 11 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WILKINSON AND EASTERN TWIGGS
COUNTIES UNTIL 245 PM EDT...

At 220 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Jeffersonville...
moving northeast at 20 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Jeffersonville, Irwinton, McIntyre and Nicklesville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3264 8332 3268 8337 3290 8325 3269 8302
TIME...MOT...LOC 1820Z 228DEG 19KT 3268 8331

WIND...40MPH