Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
306 PM EDT Fri May 10 2019

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Saturday Night/...

Well it has certainly turned out to be a quieter day than models
had projected a couple of days ago as post shortwave environment
from yesterday is much much drier. Precipitable water values have
increased to over an inch but just barely north of I20. As a
result of this and subtle ridging ahead of next shortwave, the
only area with any showers at all currently is over our far SE
zones. Lots of events going on this evening including some
graduations and really just anticipate slight chance to low end
chance pops or hit and miss typical summertime activity.
Thunderstorms looking harder to come by, but there still remains a
good instability axis for the SE sections so could get some
enhanced vertical growth in storms later this afternoon.

Otherwise, watching MCV to the west which some hi res was showing
developing into a strong squall line just like last evening. Based
on trends and newer hi res coming in, this looks less likely and
should just see a line of showers and maybe an embedded
thunderstorm for far western portions after midnight based on
current timing.

Shortwave to move across late in the overnight period and should
see a large area of light to moderate rain developing through Sat
morning. Still look on target for categorical pops but the
placement north or south of this axis remains in question as does
the degree of instability we are able to get in the afternoon. At
this time, it appears best chances for high QPF looks to be across
the far northern tier with around an inch for through Sat.
Redevelopment of thunderstorms looks most likely along the
southern end of this rain shield to affect portions of Central GA
Sat afternoon.

Deese

.LONG TERM /Sunday through Friday/...

Only tweaks to the long term based on the latest guidance.
A wet and stormy Sunday can still be expected.

BDL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 348 AM EDT Fri May 10 2019/

LONG TERM /Saturday Night through Thursday/...
The latter half of the weekend is still progged to be wet, but the
first part of next week will feature dry weather and slightly below
normal temps. The temps will slowly moderate through the remainder
of the week and small chances for pops will also return.

Stalled frontal boundary will continue near northern Ga through
Sunday. Along and south of this boundary, the summer-like abundantly
moist airmass will provide the fuel for waves of showers and
thunderstorms. Several perturbations in the flow aloft will move
east in the flow aloft, providing ample lift and helping to steepen
mid level lapse rates. Currently, the steepest mid level lapse rates
coincide with decent surface instability and a mid level shortwave
Saturday night. With no change in airmass on Sunday and models
are also progging another stronger mid/upper level disturbance
moving through during the day, the potential for severe weather
will increase. The front and a surface low pressure wave should
move though on Monday. A much drier and cooler airmass will settle
across the area for the first half of the week. A slow moderation
in temps should occur by the end of the week.

Thunderstorms could become more organized around any mid/upper level
disturbance that moves through. If this occurs, the potential for
severe weather will increase. The main hazards from severe
thunderstorms would be damaging wind gusts. However, large hail
and an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. The exact rounds of
shra/tsra will be hard to time, so interested parties should
remain weather aware since outdoor activities are becoming more
and more popular.

NListemaa

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...

After a LIFR start, conditions have improved markedly across the
area with almost SKC conditions at CSG and ATL. Complex over
Mississippi will make VERY slow progress toward the local area and
have only included a low confidence TEMPO aft 04Z for most of the
ATL terminals. More sustained and substantial SHRA activity will
move in late tonight into Saturday morning to go along with MVFR
cigs. This could transition into TSRA by Sat afternoon but will
let next shift have a closer look. Winds will be tricky as they
have gone SSW at ATL but should go back SE overnight and than SSW
tomorrow.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
Medium on TSRA chances tonight.
High on remaining elements.

Deese

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          66  79  65  78 /  40  80  70  80
Atlanta         67  79  66  76 /  40  80  70  90
Blairsville     61  72  61  71 /  60  90  80  90
Cartersville    65  78  65  75 /  60  80  80  90
Columbus        68  83  68  80 /  40  60  70  80
Gainesville     65  75  65  74 /  50  80  80  90
Macon           67  84  67  80 /  40  70  70  70
Rome            65  78  64  76 /  60  80  80  90
Peachtree City  66  81  65  77 /  40  80  70  90
Vidalia         67  88  69  87 /  40  60  60  70

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Deese
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...Deese

Hazardous Weather Outlook...Corrected
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1150 AM EDT Fri May 10 2019

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-111000-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
1150 AM EDT Fri May 10 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and
Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight...

Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon into
tonight across north and central Georgia. A few storms
could be strong to severe. The primary hazards with the
strongest storms will be damaging winds, frequent lightning
and heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday...

Showers and thunderstorms can be expected Saturday into early Monday.
Some storms could be strong to severe Saturday and Sunday. The
primary hazards with the strongest storms will be damaging
winds and frequent lightning. Large hail will also be possible.
Heavy rain with localized flooding will be possible and
most likely over north Georgia. An isolated tornado will be
possible and most so on Sunday.

There will be a slight chance of thunderstorms Wednesday night and
Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

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