Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
325 PM EDT Thu May 9 2019

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Friday Night/...

...Severe Storms Possible Through This Evening...

Continue to monitor progression of of squall line through far east
Alabama and now moving into our western tier. This is about 2
hours ahead of schedule from the previous hi res guidance and
there is some risk of this activity outracing its forcing but that
would not likely occur until its gets closer to Atlanta metro.
Until then, expect continued strong to locally severe activity for
the next couple of hours with this line. Southern portion of the
line is feeding more on enhanced instability than mid level
forcing. This instability axis does stretch into our southwest
zones so could see some enhanced storm development there.

Models march this activity right on through central GA this
evening with just stray showers left in its wake for the remainder
of the overnight period. Low clouds will certainly develop with
the moisture in place but fog will be limited by slightly elevated
winds during the night time period. That said, some of the wind
sheltered locations and areas that receive abundant rainfall could
see more significant reductions to visibility.

With most of the shortwave energy remaining to the west for
Friday, it has all the makings of a typical summer day across the
area. CAPE values will approach 2000 J/KG with precipitable water
around 1.5 inches, all leading to generally mid range chance pops
favored during the afternoon. Downdraft CAPE looks higher than
previous days so could see some higher chances for stronger
downdrafts with some of the activity.

As we head into late Fri night and Sat morning, should see a
rapid increase in pops as strong shortwave moves through Alabama.
Based on setup, could see some training of cells through Sat
morning and perhaps transition to more of a heavy rainfall and
flood threat.

Deese

.LONG TERM /Saturday through Thursday/...

Only tweaks to the long term based on the latest guidance.
A wet and stormy Saturday and Sunday is still expected.

BDL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 151 PM EDT Thu May 9 2019/

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1102 AM EDT Thu May 9 2019/

LONG TERM /Friday Night through Wednesday/...
A stationary boundary across the southeast states will contribute to
unsettled weather for the weekend.

A stalled frontal boundary across northern GA will provide focus for
several rounds of convection through the weekend. At the beginning
of the period, the old frontal boundary should be situated just
south of the GA/NC/TN line. The models do push the boundary a bit
northward later Saturday into Sunday as a wave of low pressure moves
northeast along the boundary. The stronger wave of low pressure will
help drag the boundary through the remainder of the CWFA late Sunday
into early Monday. High pressure builds in for the remainder of the
long term period. Overall, there have been no major timing changes
to the forecast.

Not confident on how far north of the GA/TN/NC state line the
boundary will move, but the front should be close enough to the far
northern portion of the CWFA should retain the highest pops. In
addition, the axis of heaviest QPF remains in just about the same
place as yesterdays runs...mainly along and north of a Douglasville
to Atlanta to Athens line. However, the QPF values have increased,
especially across the highest elevations. Storm Total QPF from
Friday Night through Monday ranges from 1-2 inches north of
Interstate 20 with some locally higher amounts of 3-4 inches across
the higher terrain. South of I-20, values of an inch or less are
likely.

High pressure and drier conditions are anticipated for Tuesday
through Thursday. A brief return to more normal temps Monday and
Tuesday quickly moderate for the latter half of the week back to
above normal values.

NListemaa

AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...

Winds at ATL have been flirting with SSW at ATL but this looks to
be fleeting and have kept them on the east side for now. VFR
conditions for now but a complex of storms and MVFR cigs poised
over Alabama will be headed for the terminals late this afternoon
into the evening hours. After 22Z looks to be the most favorable
timing for now and will include a TEMPO for all sites with MCN and
AHN just a few hours later with the TEMPO. Low cigs to develop in
the wake of this activity and have added in a period of IFR for
Friday morning for most sites.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
Medium on TSRA timing and IFR.
High on remaining elements.

Deese

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          65  84  66  79 /  70  40  70  80
Atlanta         67  84  67  79 /  70  40  70  80
Blairsville     61  78  61  73 /  60  40  70  80
Cartersville    65  82  65  78 /  80  50  70  80
Columbus        68  87  68  85 /  60  50  40  60
Gainesville     65  81  65  76 /  60  40  70  80
Macon           66  87  67  85 /  60  40  50  60
Rome            64  83  64  78 /  80  50  70  80
Peachtree City  65  85  65  80 /  70  50  60  70
Vidalia         68  88  68  88 /  30  40  40  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Deese
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...Deese

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1000 AM EDT Thu May 9 2019

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-101000-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
1000 AM EDT Thu May 9 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and
Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight...

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected over portions of
north and central Georgia this afternoon into tonight.
A few storms will be strong and possibly severe over portions
of north and west Georgia. The main hazards will be strong and
possibly damaging winds, frequent lightning and heavy rain.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday...

There is a chance of thunderstorms across the area
Friday into early Monday, with the greatest coverage on Saturday
and Sunday. A few storms could be strong and possibly severe with
gusty winds and frequent lightning. Heavy rainfall will also be
possible, especially across far north Georgia where localized
flooding could occur.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
310 PM EDT Thu May 9 2019

GAZ001-092000-
Dade GA-
310 PM EDT Thu May 9 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN DADE COUNTY UNTIL 400 PM
EDT...

At 309 PM EDT...National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
line of strong thunderstorms along a line extending from Orme to
Pisgah...and moving northeast at 35 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind and enhanced risk of a brief tornado.

  IMPACT...While winds should result in minor damage to tree limbs
           and blowing around of light...unsecured objects...the
           leading edge of this line of storms has also exhibited
           areas of localized rotation. A brief tornado could
           quickly form.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Morganville, Hooker, Cole City and Wildwood.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately.

LAT...LON 3498 8537 3488 8543 3493 8549 3487 8558
      3488 8559 3495 8560 3498 8560
TIME...MOT...LOC 1909Z 237DEG 31KT 3501 8577 3468 8583

WIND...50MPH

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
408 PM EDT Thu May 9 2019

GAZ004-005-012-020-092045-
Whitfield GA-Gordon GA-Bartow GA-Murray GA-
408 PM EDT Thu May 9 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN WHITFIELD...GORDON...
NORTHERN BARTOW AND SOUTHWESTERN MURRAY COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM EDT...

At 408 PM EDT...a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from near Sugar Valley to Calhoun to near Kingston...and
moving northeast at 35 mph.

  HAZARD...40 mph wind and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Calhoun, Adairsville, Resaca, Fairmount, Ranger, Carters,
Sonoraville, Ramhurst, Oostanaula, Redbud, Folsom, Audubon, Pine Log,
Sugar Valley, Oakman, Funkhouser, Nickelsville and North Georgia
Speedway.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. Motorists should
slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3475 8471 3463 8465 3448 8466 3446 8465
      3444 8466 3436 8465 3435 8465 3426 8502
      3435 8502 3435 8501 3439 8501 3439 8502
      3445 8502 3458 8507 3460 8506
TIME...MOT...LOC 2008Z 247DEG 32KT 3463 8502 3448 8496 3427 8498

WIND...40MPH