Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1048 AM EDT Sat May 4 2019

.UPDATE...

A line of strong thunderstorms has entered into the northwest
corner of the forecast area and are slowly pushing to the
northeast, producing heavy rain and frequent lightning.
Elsewhere, precipitation has been slow to move into the area and
hi-res solutions have backed off on precipitation through the
morning. As a result, have increased PoPs across far northern
Georgia and reduced PoPs across the remainder of the area through
the early afternoon. Otherwise, only minor changes have been made
to temperatures, dewpoints, and winds based on the latest trends.

King

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 740 AM EDT Sat May 4 2019/

SHORT TERM /Today through Sunday/...
Broad, somewhat shallow, upper trough works its way across the
region today through Sunday. Still seeing sufficient instability,
dynamics and mid-level winds for increased chances for a few strong
to severe thunderstorms today into this evening. Best chances today
remain across the north where better dynamics and a weak frontal
boundary will help to enhance lift. Primary threat remains strong,
damaging winds and some marginal hail. For Sunday, focus shifts into
central Georgia, however diminishing instability and forcing
minimizes the risk for stronger thunderstorms.

20

LONG TERM /Sunday Night through Friday/...
The long term begins with an exiting system and drier air
spreading over the CWA. Models are in very good agreement with
this. We will see one good day of drying before moisture starts
returning ahead of the next in a series of short waves approaches
on Tuesday. Models differ somewhat on timing and strength of these
short waves for the latter half of the long term, however the
result will be increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms each
day.

17

AVIATION...
12Z Update...

VFR conditions are expected to predominate across the forecast area
through the first half of this forecast period, outside of areas of
convection. Will see some local to scattered areas of MVFR or lower
visibilities through 14Z, however only brief impacts at any TAF
sites. MVFR ceilings are expected to develop across the far north
after 00Z and spread south through the remainder of the overnight
period into Sunday morning. Isolated showers/thunderstorms remain
possible through 14Z, becoming more widespread in coverage after.
Light west to southwest winds will increase to 5-10kt by 16-18Z.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...

Medium.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          81  64  81  60 /  60  70  40  10
Atlanta         80  65  79  61 /  70  70  40  10
Blairsville     75  59  75  53 /  70  70  40   5
Cartersville    79  63  78  56 /  70  70  40  10
Columbus        82  66  82  64 /  60  70  30  10
Gainesville     78  63  78  60 /  70  70  40   5
Macon           83  65  81  61 /  50  60  50  20
Rome            79  62  78  57 /  70  70  40   5
Peachtree City  81  63  80  57 /  70  70  40  10
Vidalia         85  69  84  67 /  40  60  60  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...King
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...20

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1042 AM EDT Sat May 4 2019

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-051445-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
1042 AM EDT Sat May 4 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

A few severe storms are possible across north and central
Georgia this afternoon and tonight.

A strong storm system will move across Georgia today and tonight.
This will bring scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
to north and central Georgia.

A few storms could be severe just about anywhere across north and
central Georgia, although the main focus will be north of a line
from Preston to Macon to Louisville. The best time for severe
storm development will be from around noon today until midnight
tonight.

The main hazards from the severe storms will be damaging winds and
hail up to 1 inch in diameter.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday...

There remains a chance of thunderstorms Sunday as the Saturday
storm system exits. Although a few storms could be strong with
gusty winds, severe storms are not expected on Sunday.

There is a chance of thunderstorms across parts of central Georgia
and also the northeast mountains Tuesday afternoon...and then for
all of north and central Georgia Wednesday through Friday. A few
storms could be strong with gusty winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not requested but spotters are encouraged
to submit reports of severe weather through the web by going to
weather.gov/atlanta.

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