Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
334 PM EDT Mon Mar 25 2019

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Tuesday Night/...

Tricky forecast for the start of the short term with if and how much
possible strong to severe convective development occurs late this
afternoon into evening with upper wave/cold pool pushing in from the
west and if any sfc destabilization happens. Some rather dense cloud
coverage has limited warming/instability across north GA for the
time being and even though a pocket of some clearing is advecting in
from the west, some stratocu is quickly filling in. That being
said... hi-res models are consistent with scattered initiation
across AL here in the next few hours that continue into north and
part of central GA and it wouldn't take much CAPE given the very low
freezing level and aforementioned cooling aloft/steepening lapse
rates to generate thunderstorms capable of hail. Will be holding
steady on the forecast given these factors, and may just be a bit
delayed than previous thoughts.

Wedge front builds in Tuesday and has enough forcing and CAM
agreement to warrant slight to low end chance pops for shower
development. Decent inversion aloft will keep things capped so not
including thunder mention. A secondary much weaker upper shortwave
looks to push across western and central GA late Tuesday into the
overnight so have held onto some slight shower chances
accordingly.

Cooler temps expected Tuesday in the upper 50s to low 60s for most
areas given wedge, and lows Tuesday night will be back in the low
40s to upper 30s.

Baker

&&

.LONG TERM /Wednesday through Monday/...

No significant weather impacts expected in the long term period.
Main concerns are timing of precip and chance of convection
associated with next system, currently progged for Sunday and
beyond.

Pattern at start of period characterized by NW flow aloft over the
southeast CONUS with shortwave trough east of southeast U.S.
Atlantic coast. Wed and Thurs will be great days to be outside, with
clear skies and warm daytime temps and cool morning temps. Could see
some areas of far northeast GA approach freezing temps Tues and Wed
night.

By Thurs large shortwave centered over Hudson's Bay with flow
extending well into OH/TN valley, Could see some clouds over north
GA in the westerlies. Flow becomes WSWly aloft Friday with warming
and increasing high clouds. At this point, 12Z models diverge
somewhat but in better agreement than prev cycles. GFS/CMC faster
while EC slower, but all bring in precip Sat/Sun. Too far out to
indicate likelihood of convection or precip amounts with any
confidence. Did see that GFS has much more intense evolution of
second shortwave behind the weekend system which greatly modulates
precip amounts and PoPs. Have continued Slt Chc/Chc pops thru Mon
based on lack of model consensus and large discrepancy of fcst
impacts (i.e. if you want to see heavy rain and the washing of
pollen, bet on the GFS).

Until then, with rainfall with today's system mainly expected over
north GA, drought conditions over middle GA will continue to expand.

SNELSON

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 342 AM EDT Mon Mar 25 2019/

LONG TERM /Tuesday Night through Sunday/...

A secondary closed upper low behind the main trough could lead to
some wraparound cloud coverage and additional light showers and
graupel (the latter due to very cold temperatures in the core of the
system) on Tuesday. These conditions should be coming to an end by
Tuesday night as the extended period begins. Upper-level ridging
will then build in to the southeastern CONUS on Wednesday and an
associated surface high will simultaneously move east of the
Appalachians. High pressure will then progressively build southward
from this high across the forecast area during the later half of the
work week. Clearing skies and dry conditions will be anticipated to
return on Wednesday and lead to gradual warming through the end of
the week. High temperatures mainly 5-10 degrees below climatological
normals on Wednesday gradually increasing to 4-8 degrees above
climatological normals by Saturday.

The next system approaches the area during the coming weekend as an
upper level longwave trough moves eastward from the Great Plains
towards the Atlantic Coast. At the surface, a low pressure system is
expected to drop a cold front into the the Mississippi Valley by
Saturday night. This front is expected to push southeastward towards
the forecast area Sunday as the low quickly retreats to the
northeast. Model guidance is trending towards better agreement, but
still remains somewhat inconsistent with the handling of this system
as the front approaches Georgia. Latest GFS presents a faster, drier
solution with precipitation ahead of the front entering the area
late Saturday night and clearing the forecast area Sunday night,
while the latest ECMWF presents a slower, wetter solution with
precipitation entering Sunday morning and lingering until the front
clears Monday morning. Sufficient instability is possible across
central Georgia during the daytime on Sunday to support thunderstorm
development, so included a slight chance of thunderstorms across the
southern portion of the forecast area at that time. Will continue to
monitor severe weather potential in ensuing forecasts for severe
potential as model guidance continues to come into better
agreement.

King

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
Initial VFR conditions with mainly cigs in 4-6 kft range. Upper
wave will increase shower and possible TS chances this afternoon
into evening so have tempo group around 19z to 23z (a bit later
for southern/eastern sites). Should have some MVFR cigs either
with precip or later tonight into Tuesday morning and also a
return of some more isolated showers with a wedge front building
in from the NE. Winds initially SW 8-10 kts (possible gusts for
ATL) then NW tonight and NE after 15z Tuesday.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Low on precip coverage and TS chance this afternoon/evening.
Medium on morning cigs.
High on all else.

Baker

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          49  60  38  61 /  70  10  10   0
Atlanta         50  60  41  62 /  70  30  20   0
Blairsville     43  58  35  60 /  60  30  20   0
Cartersville    47  59  41  63 /  60  30  20   0
Columbus        51  65  44  65 /  60  30  20   0
Gainesville     48  59  39  59 /  60  20  20   0
Macon           51  64  41  64 /  70  30  20   0
Rome            48  60  42  64 /  50  20  20   0
Peachtree City  49  61  41  63 /  70  30  20   0
Vidalia         55  67  42  64 /  60  20  20   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Baker
LONG TERM....King/SNELSON
AVIATION...Baker

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1059 AM EDT Mon Mar 25 2019

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-261500-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
1059 AM EDT Mon Mar 25 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

An upper level system will push southeastward across the area
today, bringing increased chances for showers and thunderstorms.
Some storms could be strong to severe this afternoon into
evening. The primary threats will be large hail and damaging
winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday...

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible Sunday and Sunday
night as a cold front moves through the area.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested but spotters are encouraged
to submit reports of severe weather through the web by going to
weather.gov/atlanta.

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