Severe Thunderstorm Warning 325, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
700 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2019

.UPDATE FOR AVIATION...

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 333 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2019/

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Sunday Night/...
Tonight, as Post-Tropical Storm Nestor makes it's way across
southern Georgia, the shield of rain will begin to exit the area
from southwest to northeast. Most of the rain, outside a few
isolated showers, should be moved out of the forecast area by dawn
tomorrow morning. Winds will also remain gusty going into the
overnight period, but begin weakening and backing out of the north
around midnight and out of the northwest by sunrise. Temps should
remain in the low- to mid-50s.

Skies will begin to clear late tomorrow morning as relatively high
pressure seeps back into the southeastern CONUS between the post-
tropical cyclone and a strong low-pressure system in the northern
plains. Weak ridging aloft will also help keep skies mostly clear
going into tomorrow night with high temperatures expected to climb
into the mid-70s despite northwesterly winds bringing in cooler and
drier air into the region. Tomorrow night, moist Gulf air will
quickly make its return with the southwesterly flow aloft ahead of a
longwave trough situated from the Midwest into the southern plains.

Thiem

LONG TERM /Monday through Saturday/...
No major changes made to the extended forecast. Cold front still
on schedule for Monday afternoon/evening exiting the area Tuesday.
The models are in good agreement with timing, but the ECMWF is a
little wetter than the GFS. Strong mid level support, coupled
upper jet structure and surface instability still present so
strong thunderstorms are still possible.

High pressure will build in behind the front and dominate the
weather pattern trough Thursday as a second frontal boundary
moves east of the Mississippi River. The second front looks to
push some precip into our area by Friday, then sweep through the
state Sat. Will keep an eye out for this system as timing and
intensity will most likely change over the next few days.

Temps still expected to be close to seasonal norms, give or take
a few degrees, so have not made to many adjustments to the current
forecast.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z Update...
IFR ceilings most likely through the overnight along with
MVFR/IFR vsby restrictions due to showers/rain/drizzle. Surface
winds N-E 10-15 kts with gusts to around 25 kts will be
diminishing and becoming N-W less than 10 kts late tonight and
Sunday. IFR ceilings are expected to clear on Sunday.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Low confidence for vsbys.
Medium confidence for all other elements.

BDL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          53  77  56  77 /  90  10   5  20
Atlanta         54  75  59  77 /  90   5   5  20
Blairsville     52  72  53  69 /  90  10   5  40
Cartersville    55  77  58  78 /  90   5   5  30
Columbus        57  79  60  83 /  60   5   5  30
Gainesville     51  76  57  75 /  90   5   5  30
Macon           56  78  57  82 /  80   5   5  20
Rome            54  77  58  79 /  80   5   5  40
Peachtree City  55  76  58  79 /  80   5   5  20
Vidalia         62  78  59  83 /  90  10   5  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

AVIATION...BDL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
446 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2019

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-202100-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
446 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight...

Isolated thunderstorms are possible through this evening, mainly
along and south of a line from LaGrange to Macon to
Swainsboro, as Post Tropical Storm Nestor moves northeast across
the state. Locally heavy rain and gusty winds will be the main
hazards, but an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. Isolated
strong wind gusts, which could down large tree limbs or small
trees, cannot be ruled out, but should not be widespread.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday...

Isolated thunderstorms will be possible Monday afternoon and again
Friday as two cold fronts move through to the region.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
626 PM EDT SAT OCT 19 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0445 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 4 WNW PEACH STATE SPEED 34.19N  83.61W
10/19/2019                   JACKSON            GA   PUBLIC

            UPROOTED TREE DUE TO WINDS REPORTED BY THE PUBLIC ALONG
            PINE WAY LANE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1900764

LUSK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
632 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2019

GAZ105>108-192315-
Crisp GA-Dooly GA-Wilcox GA-Pulaski GA-
632 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN CRISP...EASTERN DOOLY...
NORTHWESTERN WILCOX AND SOUTHWESTERN PULASKI COUNTIES UNTIL 715 PM
EDT...

At 632 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was near Richwood, or near
Cordele...moving northeast at 15 mph.

  HAZARD...40 mph wind and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Cordele, Vienna, Pineview, Pinehurst, Pleasant View, Richwood,
Tippettville, Tremont, Pope City and Finleyson.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. Motorists should
slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3203 8396 3204 8397 3227 8367 3207 8343
      3190 8385
TIME...MOT...LOC 2232Z 232DEG 14KT 3202 8385

WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
723 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2019

GAZ106>108-200000-
Crisp GA-Wilcox GA-Pulaski GA-
723 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN CRISP...NORTHWESTERN
WILCOX AND SOUTHERN PULASKI COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM EDT...

At 723 PM EDT...National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong storm within a tropical rain band over Seville, or 10 miles
east of Cordele...moving northeast at 20 mph.

  HAZARD...enhanced risk of a brief tornado.

  IMPACT...Storms embedded within a tropical rainband have exhibited
           localized rotation. A brief tornado could quickly form.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Abbeville, Rochelle, Pineview, Pitts, Pleasant View, Cedar Creek,
Pope City, Finleyson and Seville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately.

LAT...LON 3202 8366 3203 8365 3203 8361 3207 8361
      3224 8344 3202 8329 3201 8330 3200 8328
      3199 8329 3198 8328 3198 8329 3194 8358
TIME...MOT...LOC 2323Z 241DEG 19KT 3199 8361