Severe Thunderstorm Warning 302, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
130 PM EDT Sat Aug 24 2019

.UPDATE...

Updated for the 18Z Aviation Discussion.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1114 AM EDT Sat Aug 24 2019/

UPDATE...

For the most part, the forecast remains largely on track, with
only minor adjustments made based on the latest observations.
Ceilings have been slow to improve this morning across portions of
north and east Georgia, and scattered light showers have begun in
central Georgia. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected
to develop during the afternoon hours. Deep Gulf moisture and precipitable
water values in excess of 2 inches could lend itself to the
possibility of locally heavy rainfall with any stronger storms
that occur.

King

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 743 AM EDT Sat Aug 24 2019/

.12Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 445 AM EDT Sat Aug 24 2019/

SHORT TERM /Today through Sunday/...

A weak frontal boundary is currently draped in the vicinity of far
north Georgia this morning. This front will get a southward push
today in the form of a back door/wedge front courtesy of surface
high pressure transitioning eastward across northern Maine and New
Brunswick. The boundary will interact with abundant Gulf moisture in
place across the area (PWs remain at 2+") today to generate
widespread shower and thunderstorm activity this afternoon and
evening. Locally heavy rainfall will again be possible with any
thunderstorm activity.

Cool easterly surface flow will set in tonight into Sunday as the
front makes steady progress south and westward. Some convection will
likely linger into the overnight hours into Sunday morning given the
progressing front. The wedge front looks to make it as far as
western and central Georgia on Sunday with cooler, more stable air
settling into much of the area. This will concentrate the highest
chance for convection across western and southern portions of the
area on Sunday, though some scattered activity will remain possible
farther north and east within the wedge.

Temperatures will begin to trend cooler today, though the most
noticeable temperature change will be on Sunday as cool easterly
flow sets in. High temperatures Sunday are forecast to be around 8-
10 degrees cooler than late August normals and may struggle to reach
80 degrees across much of north Georgia. This cooldown will provide
welcome relief from the persistently above normal temperatures this
August.

RW

LONG TERM /Sunday Night through Friday/...

The long term begins with much of the forecast area under the
influence of a wedge. Not confident how far south and west into
the area the wedge will reach...but probably all of north and a
good portion of central. The possible formation of a tropical
system off the coast of the Carolinas could serve to enhance the
easterly flow. Have kept mostly chance to likely pops area wide
through the middle of the week. Think the most favored area for
convection should be along/near the wedge boundary. An upper level
trough crosses the southeast on Tuesday and the wedge breaks down.
However another front looks like it is on track for Wednesday.
Pops begin to taper off Thursday and Friday as the upper flow
becomes more northwest. At least north GA feels the influence of
some drier air and have removed pops across the far north by
Thursday.

41

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
Mainly VFR conditions are expected through this afternoon as lowered
ceilings from earlier have scattered out and have been replaced
with a BKN cu field at 035-040. Scattered SHRA/TSRA is developing
across the forecast area, with peak coverage anticipated in the
mid-late afternoon. TEMPO groups for TSRA are in place at all
sites starting at 18-19Z. Some activity is moreover anticipated to
linger into the overnight hours until around 06-07Z. MVFR ceilings
will start to spread over TAF sites from east to west after 00Z
and drop down to IFR after 06-07Z, remaining through the morning
hours Sunday. Winds are expected to be E through the period,
starting out at 4-8 kts this afternoon then increasing to roughly
8-10 kts after 06Z.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium to high confidence on all elements.

King

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          83  66  79  67 /  50  40  30  40
Atlanta         88  68  78  69 /  70  70  50  50
Blairsville     79  62  72  62 /  60  40  40  40
Cartersville    88  68  80  69 /  60  50  50  50
Columbus        91  73  84  71 /  60  60  60  60
Gainesville     83  66  75  67 /  60  40  30  40
Macon           91  71  83  70 /  70  70  40  50
Rome            90  68  80  68 /  50  50  60  60
Peachtree City  89  68  81  69 /  70  70  50  60
Vidalia         91  72  86  71 /  70  70  50  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...King
LONG TERM....NListemaa
AVIATION...King

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1107 AM EDT Sat Aug 24 2019

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-251000-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
1107 AM EDT Sat Aug 24 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Scattered thunderstorms are expected across much of north and
central Georgia this afternoon into tonight. A few storms could be
strong to severe with gusty winds, frequent lightning and locally
heavy rainfall possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday...

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected across much of north
and central Georgia through Thursday...mainly in the afternoons
and evenings. A few storms could be strong to severe with gusty
winds, frequent lightning and locally heavy rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested but spotters are encouraged
to submit reports of severe weather through the web by going to
weather.gov/atlanta.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1115 AM EDT SAT AUG 24 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1015 PM     FLASH FLOOD      5 ESE RIDDLEVILLE       32.87N  82.59W
08/23/2019                   WASHINGTON         GA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LAW ENFORCEMENT RESCUED MOTORISTS WHO HAD BECOME
            STRANDED ALONG WILSON RD AFTER HEAVY RAINS HAD MADE THE
            ROAD IMPASSABLE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1900714

TV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1121 AM EDT SAT AUG 24 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1015 PM     FLASH FLOOD      5 ESE RIDDLEVILLE       32.89N  82.58W
08/23/2019                   WASHINGTON         GA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LAW ENFORCEMENT RESCUED MOTORISTS WHO HAD BECOME
            STRANDED ALONG WILSON RD AFTER HEAVY RAINS HAD MADE THE
            ROAD IMPASSABLE.

&&

CORRECTED LOCATION

EVENT NUMBER FFC1900714

TV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1142 AM EDT SAT AUG 24 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0706 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 S MOXLEY              32.91N  82.40W
08/23/2019                   JEFFERSON          GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES WERE REPORTED DOWN ALONG US-1 NORTH OF WADLEY.
            TIME IS ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1900715

TV

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
100 PM EDT Sat Aug 24 2019

GAZ014-015-241730-
Dawson GA-Lumpkin GA-
100 PM EDT Sat Aug 24 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN DAWSON AND SOUTHERN
LUMPKIN COUNTIES UNTIL 130 PM EDT...

At 1259 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Dahlonega...moving
southwest at 10 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Dahlonega, Dawsonville, Nimblewill, McKee, Juno and Auraria.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3457 8389 3447 8392 3447 8393 3445 8392
      3445 8393 3443 8396 3441 8398 3440 8397
      3439 8398 3435 8398 3446 8425 3465 8408
TIME...MOT...LOC 1659Z 024DEG 7KT 3455 8403

WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
156 PM EDT Sat Aug 24 2019

GAZ097-098-111-112-241830-
Wheeler GA-Treutlen GA-Montgomery GA-Laurens GA-
156 PM EDT Sat Aug 24 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN WHEELER...
SOUTHWESTERN TREUTLEN...NORTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY AND SOUTHEASTERN
LAURENS COUNTIES UNTIL 230 PM EDT...

At 156 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Barnhill, or 8 miles
southwest of Soperton...moving west at 5 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Soperton, Lowery, Barnhill, Lothair and Landsburg.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3242 8259 3223 8258 3217 8287 3242 8287
TIME...MOT...LOC 1756Z 084DEG 6KT 3233 8272

WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
235 PM EDT Sat Aug 24 2019

GAZ097-109>111-241900-
Wheeler GA-Telfair GA-Laurens GA-Dodge GA-
235 PM EDT Sat Aug 24 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN WHEELER...NORTHWESTERN
TELFAIR...SOUTHERN LAURENS AND DODGE COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM EDT...

At 235 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was near Jay Bird Springs, or 7
miles north of McRae...moving west at 10 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
McRae, Eastman, Helena, Milan, Chauncey, Jay Bird Springs, Achord,
Cedar Grove, Little Ocmulgee State Park and Godwinsville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3199 8308 3224 8318 3227 8289 3210 8283
TIME...MOT...LOC 1835Z 072DEG 8KT 3217 8294

WIND...40MPH