Severe Thunderstorm Warning 29, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
135 AM EDT Fri Mar 15 2019

.UPDATE...

Stronger cluster of convection and some current SVR warnings
making its way across portions of western north GA here at the
time of the update and coordinated to have Tornado Watch in effect
through 1 AM for zone mainly north and west Atlanta to Rome and
the AL border. This could be expanded farther east if the
environment continues to look favorable. Previous discussion
follows.

00z Aviation discussion below.

Baker

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 351 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2019/

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Friday Night/...

To begin the short term period, a strong upper-level cutoff low is
moving northeastward across the Northern Plains and into the Great
Lakes region. The associated surface low has deepened significantly
and is well-occluded. A cold front is splitting off from the
occluded front in Indiana and dropping N-S into the southeastern
CONUS. With the moisture return to our area from continued
southeasterly flow, along with our area being positioned in the warm
sector of this system ahead of the approaching cold front, dewpoints
have increased into the upper 50s to low 60s throughout the region
and temperatures have reached into the upper 60s and low 70s.
Moreover, a tightening of the pressure gradient has allowed for an
increase in wind speeds across the forecast area, with wind gusts of
20-25 kts still ongoing this afternoon.

The main line of showers and thunderstorms associated with the cold
front is currently moving eastward into Alabama. Some isolated
showers and thunderstorms will be possible ahead of the main line by
late this afternoon, with the line itself entering northwest
Georgia tonight. Increased dewpoints are indicative of some
destabilization of the atmosphere ahead of the front. With SBCAPE
values of 500-1000 J/kg co-located with some impressive deep layer
shear and 1 km helicity values over 200 m^2/s^2, there is a
chance for some thunderstorms rotating thunderstorms as the line
enters our forecast area. Some of these storms could be strong to
severe, with strong wind gusts and a possible brief tornado
possible with severe storms that occur.

The highest risk for strong to severe thunderstorms will be
positioned across far northwest Georgia during the overnight hours.
The intensity and organization of the storms will then begin to
decrease as the front pushes southeastward towards the metro area.
While brief periods of heavy rainfall are possible with stronger
storms embedded within the line, rainfall totals are generally
expected to be between 0.5 and 1 inch along and north of the I-85
corridor. The only exception is the far northeast in the higher
elevations, where orographic lift could enhance rainfall totals to
as high as 2 inches.

The main axis of showers and thunderstorms will push southeastward
away from the metro area by Friday afternoon and clear the
forecast area by Friday night. As the cold front clears the area,
low temperatures overnight will return to near climatological
normals, mainly in the mid to upper 30s in north Georgia and low
to mid 40s in central Georgia.

King

&&

.LONG TERM /Saturday through Thursday/...

Short-term front expected to be south of the CWA by Saturday, with
cool, dry high pressure building in behind it. Extended models are
showing the old frontal boundary and tropical moisture south of the
forecast area could creep northward into central Georgia Sunday as a
few weak waves move through the area. For now, though, forecast kept
dry through early week. Extended models diverge in solution
beginning midweek, particularly in the timing of the next system.
For now, have opted with the drier GFS, keeping things dry
through Wednesday, then pulling a weakening cold front through the
state Wednesday night into Thursday. Even still, pops are low,
and have only included slight chance at this time. Should the
ECMWF pan out, rain chances would start a little earlier (Tuesday
night) and coverage be a little better.

Temperatures through the extended are generally below average. We
will see overnight lows approaching freezing a few nights, and a
Frost/Freeze product (Advisory/Warning) may be necessary through the
weekend.

31

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z Update...

Area of scattered convection, including a few strong thunderstorms,
will slowly sink south and east across the forecast area early this
morning and through the day. Impacts at the Atlanta metro TAF sites
will be mainly between 06Z and 14Z, KAHN and KCSG between 10Z and
18Z, and KMCN between 14Z and 20Z. We will see MVFR or lower
conditions developing across the area between 06Z and 10Z,
continuing through 18Z before improving to VFR between 18Z and 00Z.
Southwest winds 7-12kt w/ gusts 15-20kt will become westerly most
areas by 12Z and northwesterly by 18Z.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...

Medium for all elements except winds.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          61  66  42  62 /  50  60  20   0
Atlanta         58  63  41  57 /  70  70  20   0
Blairsville     54  61  34  54 /  90  80  10   0
Cartersville    54  60  38  56 /  90  70  10   0
Columbus        63  68  46  62 /  50  60  20   5
Gainesville     57  62  39  59 /  70  70  10   0
Macon           63  71  46  63 /  30  60  30   0
Rome            55  61  38  57 /  80  60  10   0
Peachtree City  59  65  41  60 /  70  70  20   0
Vidalia         62  80  52  65 /  10  60  50   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Tornado Watch until 1 AM EDT Friday for the following zones:
Bartow...Carroll...Douglas...Floyd...Haralson...Heard...
Paulding...Polk.

&&

SHORT TERM...King/Baker
LONG TERM....31
AVIATION...Baker

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
451 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2019

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-152100-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
451 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight...

There is a Slight Risk for severe storms across northwest
Georgia out ahead and along a front pushing into the area late
tonight. The highest threat for severe weather will exist across
northwest Georgia from about 8 PM until 2 AM. The primary threats
will be damaging wind gusts, hail, and tornadoes can't be ruled
out. In addition, a strong storm could develop at any location
across north and central Georgia.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday...

Showers and a few thunderstorms will linger across north and
central Georgia on Friday. Thunderstorms should remain below
severe limits. Otherwise expect dry weather through the middle of
next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested but spotters are encouraged
to submit reports of severe weather through the web by going to
weather.gov/atlanta.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1212 AM EDT FRI MAR 15 2019

GAZ052-053-066-067-150500-
Coweta GA-Troup GA-Heard GA-Meriwether GA-
1212 AM EDT FRI MAR 15 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN COWETA...TROUP...
HEARD AND NORTHWESTERN MERIWETHER COUNTIES UNTIL 100 AM EDT...

At 1212 AM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Stroud...moving
northeast at 50 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, heavy rain, and enhanced risk of a
           brief tornado.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Newnan, LaGrange, Franklin, Hogansville, Grantville, Luthersville,
Moreland, Lone Oak, East Newnan, Corinth, Southern Harbor,
Mountville, Cannonville, Louise, Rocky Point, Piedmont Heights,
Harrisonville, Hillcrest, Wares Crossroads and Glenn.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. Motorists should
slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3338 8499 3344 8478 3310 8458 3292 8520
      3325 8526
TIME...MOT...LOC 0412Z 242DEG 43KT 3305 8538

WIND...50MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
117 AM EDT FRI MAR 15 2019

GAZ002-004-005-011-012-019-150545-
Chattooga GA-Whitfield GA-Walker GA-Gordon GA-Murray GA-Floyd GA-
117 AM EDT FRI MAR 15 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CHATTOOGA...SOUTHERN WHITFIELD...
SOUTHEASTERN WALKER...NORTHWESTERN GORDON...SOUTHWESTERN MURRAY AND
NORTHEASTERN FLOYD COUNTIES UNTIL 145 AM EDT...

At 117 AM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Summerville...moving
northeast at 50 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Dalton, Calhoun, Summerville, Trion, Resaca, Oostanaula, Subligna,
Suttles Mill, Tidings, Redbud, Lake Marvin, Tilton, Audubon,
Villanow, Berryton, Sugar Valley, Everett Springs, Nickelsville and
James H. Floyd State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3434 8535 3450 8546 3478 8495 3453 8477
TIME...MOT...LOC 0517Z 242DEG 44KT 3446 8533

WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
142 AM EDT FRI MAR 15 2019

GAZ053>057-067-068-150615-
Fayette GA-Clayton GA-Coweta GA-Spalding GA-Meriwether GA-Pike GA-
Henry GA-
142 AM EDT FRI MAR 15 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FAYETTE...CLAYTON...SOUTHEASTERN
COWETA...SPALDING...NORTHEASTERN MERIWETHER...NORTHERN PIKE AND
SOUTHWESTERN HENRY COUNTIES UNTIL 215 AM EDT...

At 141 AM EDT...a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from Fayetteville to near Rocky Mount...and moving east at
40 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Griffin, McDonough, Fayetteville, Jonesboro, Peachtree City,
Stockbridge, Riverdale, Hampton, Lovejoy, Locust Grove, Senoia,
Luthersville, Brooks, Williamson, Turin, Orchard Hill, Haralson,
Woolsey, Sunny Side and East Griffin.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. Motorists should
slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3318 8476 3354 8444 3356 8409 3355 8407
      3318 8415 3319 8424 3317 8425 3314 8474
TIME...MOT...LOC 0541Z 250DEG 33KT 3343 8446 3320 8468

WIND...50MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
158 AM EDT FRI MAR 15 2019

GAZ019-030-150630-
Polk GA-Floyd GA-
158 AM EDT FRI MAR 15 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR POLK AND SOUTHERN FLOYD COUNTIES
UNTIL 230 AM EDT...

At 158 AM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Piedmont...moving
northeast at 55 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Rome, Cedartown, Rockmart, Aragon, Cave Spring, Fish Creek, Lindale,
Esom Hill, Antioch, Van Wert, Seney, Coosa and Etna.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. Motorists should
slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3437 8520 3412 8504 3408 8505 3408 8502
      3400 8497 3390 8530 3390 8538 3424 8545
TIME...MOT...LOC 0558Z 239DEG 47KT 3394 8562

WIND...50MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
222 AM EDT FRI MAR 15 2019

GAZ011-012-019-020-150700-
Chattooga GA-Gordon GA-Bartow GA-Floyd GA-
222 AM EDT FRI MAR 15 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CHATTOOGA...WESTERN GORDON...
NORTHERN BARTOW AND FLOYD COUNTIES UNTIL 300 AM EDT...

At 222 AM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Coosa, or 9 miles west
of Rome...moving northeast at 60 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Rome, Calhoun, Adairsville, Cave Spring, Resaca, Plainville, Shannon,
Lyerly, Sonoraville, Pinson, Lindale, Oostanaula, Tidings, Armuchee,
Folsom, Lake Marvin, Pine Log, Coosa, Sugar Valley and
Chattoogaville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3462 8500 3462 8499 3434 8472 3409 8537
      3425 8546 3436 8548
TIME...MOT...LOC 0622Z 238DEG 54KT 3424 8536

WIND...50MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
224 AM EDT FRI MAR 15 2019

GAZ046>048-057-150700-
Walton GA-Rockdale GA-Newton GA-Henry GA-
224 AM EDT FRI MAR 15 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN WALTON...ROCKDALE...
NORTHERN NEWTON AND NORTHERN HENRY COUNTIES UNTIL 300 AM EDT...

At 224 AM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was near Magnet, or near
Conyers...moving northeast at 45 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Conyers, Monroe, Covington, Social Circle, Oxford, Porterdale, Walnut
Grove, Jersey, Georgia International Horse Park, Magnet, Almon,
Milstead, Richardson Park, Brick Store, Herndonville, Gum Creek,
Kelleytown and Oak Hill.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3361 8419 3363 8413 3362 8411 3365 8410
      3380 8373 3364 8365 3360 8368 3351 8414
TIME...MOT...LOC 0624Z 247DEG 39KT 3359 8407

WIND...40MPH