Severe Thunderstorm Warning 241, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
321 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2019

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Saturday Night/...

A broad 500 mb trough is in place across the far eastern CONUS to
begin the short term period, with high pressure ridging approaching
from the west. A weakness between the approaching ridge and the
trough to the east will remain in place across the forecast area
today and Saturday. At the surface, a weak surface trough remains
across central Georgia. Plenty of energy is in place in this area of
weakness, which will allow for better convective development during
the peak heating hours each afternoon. As a result, high-end chance
to likely PoPs are anticipated through the remainder of this
afternoon and on Saturday.

The atmosphere will remain very moist and unstable through the
period. Precipitable water values will exceed 2 inches throughout
the rest of the day today and tomorrow. Boundary layer winds will
also be light, at 10-15 kts. As a result, heavy rain is expected
with any thunderstorms that occur. While widespread flooding
concerns are not anticipated, localized flooding is possible in the
event that slow-moving storms remain over a location for a prolonged
period of time, or multiple storms train over a common location.
Convection is expected diminish in coverage with the loss of diurnal
heating, but deep moisture over the area could allow for some
showers and thunderstorms to remain well into the night tonight and
tomorrow night.

Good instability is in place this afternoon, with MLCAPE values of
2000-2500 J/kg, along with SBCAPE of 3000-4000 J/kg, and similar
values expected once again tomorrow. The combination of this
potential energy and the mid-level shear axis will allow for
scattered to numerous thunderstorms during the remainder of the
afternoon today, and Saturday afternoon, as well. It is possible
that a several storms each today and tomorrow could become strong,
producing gusty winds, frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall. An
isolated severe thunderstorm cannot be ruled out, as well, with
damaging wind gusts being the primary hazard.

Temperatures will be near to just above climatological averages, in
the mid 90s in east-central Georgia and in the upper 80s and low 90s
elsewhere across the forecast area. With dewpoints in the low to mid
70s and humid conditions, heat indices could reach into the low 100s
in locations in central Georgia this afternoon and Saturday
afternoon. However, increased cloud cover and high-end chance to low-
end likely PoPs throughout the area will inhibit heat index values,
ultimately preventing them from reaching Heat Advisory criteria.

King

LONG TERM /Sunday through Friday/...
Only tweaks to the long term based on the latest guidance.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Main concerns in long term period are chances for diurnal convection
and likelihood that front will actually move through CWA middle of
next week.

Pattern at start of period still dominated by large, E-W oriented
upper ridge centered along 35 deg N latitude, extending across
entire CONUS and into western Atlantic. Underneath this ridge, there
is an easterly wave moving very little over the middle Gulf coast
and lower MS valley states. Medium range model guidance keeping most
of the deep moisture with this easterly wave and weakness in the
upper ridge over AL/MS Sun and Mon. Meanwhile, models also
indicating shortwave over upper midwest Sun digging SE into the OH
valley by late Mon and carving out a nice upper trough over the
eastern CONUS by 00Z Wed then slowly fill the trough thru the rest
of the week. Some disagreement seen in guidance on exactly how deep
this trough becomes and how far any drier air could push into the
state behind front. 00Z GFS more aggressive while 00Z EC keeps front
a bit weaker and keeps it stationary further north over middle GA.
00Z CMC in between the two but closer to the EC. Model blend PoPs
look good.

Convective ingredients do not appear to be excessive during the long
term period. Will be a touch more vertical wind shear starting early
next week as 20-30kt H5 flow from upper trough moves in.  With
coverage of afternoon/evening convection increasing this weekend
with the increased moisture pooling ahead of front, temps will be a
bit cooler than recently.

SNELSON

&&

AVIATION...
18Z Update...
Numerous SHRA/TSRA is ongoing across the western portion of the
forecast area and is building east towards the metro area.
Thunderstorms are most likely over the metro sites between 18-20Z,
with a TEMPO group in place thereafter before storms diminish
around 00Z. A BKN ceilings are developing at 035-050 and will
remain in place into the evening hours. There is a possibility
for some MVFR visibility restrictions between 10-12Z where patchy
fog occurs, most likely across CSG/MCN. Winds will remain W
through the TAF period at 3-7 kts, with the exception of variable
gusts associated with TSRA.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Low confidence on early morning visibility restrictions.
Medium confidence on timing of convection.
High confidence on all other elements.

King

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          72  92  72  92 /  30  40  30  30
Atlanta         74  90  73  89 /  40  50  30  40
Blairsville     67  85  67  83 /  30  50  40  60
Cartersville    72  91  71  90 /  30  60  40  50
Columbus        74  90  73  92 /  40  60  30  40
Gainesville     72  89  72  89 /  30  50  30  40
Macon           73  93  73  94 /  30  40  20  30
Rome            72  92  72  91 /  30  60  40  50
Peachtree City  72  90  72  91 /  40  50  30  40
Vidalia         73  95  75  96 /  30  30  20  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...King
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...King

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
441 AM EDT Fri Jul 19 2019

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-200845-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
441 AM EDT Fri Jul 19 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening.
A few storms could be strong with gusty winds, frequent lightning
and heavy rain. While most storms will not be severe, one or two
could briefly reach severe thresholds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday...

Scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms are expected through
at least Tuesday, with some decrease in chances possible over
north Georgia Wednesday and Thursday. Any storms will again have
the potential for strong gusty winds, frequent lightning and very
heavy rain.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested but spotters are encouraged
to submit reports of severe weather through the web by going to
weather.gov/atlanta.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
432 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2019

GAZ061-192100-
Hancock GA-
432 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HANCOCK COUNTY UNTIL 500 PM
EDT...

At 432 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was near Shoulderbone, or near
Sparta. This storm was nearly stationary.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Sparta, Springfield, Shoulderbone, Devereux and Culverton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3316 8302 3329 8318 3331 8316 3331 8315
      3332 8315 3346 8300 3345 8299 3345 8298
      3336 8283
TIME...MOT...LOC 2032Z 043DEG 0KT 3331 8303

WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
439 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2019

GAZ097-098-111-112-192115-
Wheeler GA-Treutlen GA-Montgomery GA-Laurens GA-
439 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN WHEELER...SOUTHWESTERN
TREUTLEN...NORTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY AND SOUTHEASTERN LAURENS COUNTIES
UNTIL 515 PM EDT...

At 439 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Cedar Grove, or 7
miles northwest of Alamo. This storm was nearly stationary.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Alamo, Glenwood, Barnhill, Lothair, Landsburg and Cedar Grove.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3215 8291 3218 8287 3220 8289 3216 8296
      3217 8299 3234 8296 3236 8260 3209 8265
TIME...MOT...LOC 2039Z 276DEG 4KT 3225 8284

WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
444 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2019

GAZ105-106-108-192130-
Crisp GA-Dooly GA-Wilcox GA-
444 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN CRISP...SOUTHEASTERN
DOOLY AND WESTERN WILCOX COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM EDT...

At 444 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Tremont, or near
Cordele. This storm was nearly stationary.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Cordele, Vienna, East Crisp, Pleasant View, Richwood, Tippettville,
Tremont, Wenona, Seville and Hatley.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3190 8381 3208 8381 3212 8360 3212 8355
      3186 8355
TIME...MOT...LOC 2044Z 270DEG 4KT 3199 8367

WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
446 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2019

GAZ108-109-192130-
Wilcox GA-Dodge GA-
446 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN WILCOX AND
SOUTHWESTERN DODGE COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM EDT...

At 446 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Antioch Church, or
near Abbeville. This storm was nearly stationary.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Abbeville, Rochelle, Rhine, Browning, Antioch Church and Owensboro.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3187 8346 3203 8346 3207 8321 3184 8322
TIME...MOT...LOC 2046Z 270DEG 4KT 3195 8335

WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
447 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2019

GAZ072-082>084-192100-
Wilkinson GA-Bibb GA-Jones GA-Twiggs GA-
447 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN WILKINSON...EASTERN
BIBB...SOUTHEASTERN JONES AND NORTHWESTERN TWIGGS COUNTIES UNTIL 500
PM EDT...

At 447 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Griswoldville, or 10
miles east of Macon. This storm was nearly stationary.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Macon, Gordon, Ivey, Dry Branch, Myricks Mill, Mountain Springs,
Griswoldville and Franklinton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3277 8361 3294 8348 3295 8336 3293 8335
      3294 8331 3276 8336
TIME...MOT...LOC 2047Z 270DEG 4KT 3285 8346

WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
455 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2019

GAZ025-034-035-047-192200-
Jackson GA-Walton GA-Barrow GA-Gwinnett GA-
455 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN JACKSON...NORTHWESTERN
WALTON...BARROW AND EASTERN GWINNETT COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM EDT...

At 453 PM EDT...a line of showers and thunderstorms extended from
near Hoschton to near Big Haynes Creek Park. These storms were
nearly stationary.

  HAZARD...Heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Heavy rain that has already fallen will cause temporary
           street flooding, especially in poor drainage areas, as
           well as rising water on creeks and streams.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Lawrenceville, Winder, Jefferson, Snellville, Buford, Loganville,
Braselton, Auburn, Dacula, Grayson, Hoschton, Walnut Grove,
Bethlehem, Between, Carl, Fort Yargo State Park, Windsor, Harbin,
Nicholasville and Chateau Elan.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Motorists should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of
control due to hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3409 8361 3370 8384 3379 8398 3375 8402
      3378 8408 3379 8408 3407 8400 3411 8390
      3410 8387 3415 8378
TIME...MOT...LOC 2053Z 225DEG 4KT 3409 8372 3376 8401