River Flood Warning 217, NWS Atlanta, GA

046 
WGUS82 KFFC 160334
FLSFFC
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1034 PM EST Sun Dec 15 2019

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Georgia...
  Ogeechee River near Grange affecting Jefferson and Washington 
  Counties 


GAC163-303-161734-
/O.CON.KFFC.FL.W.0217.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/GRGG1.1.ER.191216T0012Z.191216T0015Z.000000T0000Z.UU/
1034 PM EST Sun Dec 15 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Ogeechee River near Grange.
* Until further notice.
* At 10 PM Sunday the stage was 18.1 feet...and rising.
* Minor flooding is occurring.
* Flood stage is 18 feet.
* At 18 feet Minor Flood stage is reached. Minor flooding of woodlands 
  occurs upstream and downstream from the gage on Georgia Highway 88.
  The water level will cover around three fourths of the Sandy Ford 
  Public Boat Ramp.
  

&&

LAT...LON 3315 8279 3321 8270 3308 8257 3303 8239
      3294 8243 3300 8263             

$$

484 
WGUS82 KFFC 160942
FLSFFC
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
442 AM EST Mon Dec 16 2019

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Georgia...
  Oconee River near Oconee affecting Johnson...Washington and 
  Wilkinson Counties 

  Ogeechee River near Grange affecting Jefferson and Washington 
  Counties 


GAC167-303-319-162341-
/O.CON.KFFC.FL.W.0216.000000T0000Z-191218T0100Z/
/OCNG1.1.ER.191216T0954Z.191217T0000Z.191217T1900Z.NO/
442 AM EST Mon Dec 16 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Oconee River near Oconee.
* From early this morning until Tuesday evening.
* At 4AM Monday the stage was 16.8 feet...and steady.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 17.0 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage this morning and 
  continue to rise to near 18.0 feet by this evening.The river will 
  fall below flood stage by tomorrow early afternoon.
* At 18.0 feet...The water level begins to flood portions of the dirt
  parking lot area near the Old Balls Ferry Road boat ramp...just 
  upstream and rightbank from the Georgia Highway 57 bridge. Minor 
  flooding continues in the woodlands near the river.
  

&&

LAT...LON 3284 8303 3288 8298 3279 8292 3267 8289
      3265 8298 3278 8300             

$$

GAC163-303-162341-
/O.CON.KFFC.FL.W.0217.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/GRGG1.1.ER.191216T0012Z.191216T0600Z.000000T0000Z.UU/
442 AM EST Mon Dec 16 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Ogeechee River near Grange.
* Until further notice.
* At 4AM Monday the stage was 18.1 feet...steady.
* Minor flooding is occurring and will continue. 
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* At 18.0 feet...Flood stage is reached. Minor flooding of woodlands 
  occurs upstream and downstream from the gage on Georgia Highway 88.
  The water level will cover around three fourths of the Sandy Ford 
  Public Boat Ramp.
  

&&

LAT...LON 3315 8279 3321 8270 3308 8257 3303 8239
      3294 8243 3300 8263             

$$

426 
WGUS82 KFFC 161321
FLSFFC
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
821 AM EST Mon Dec 16 2019

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Georgia...
 
  Ogeechee River near Grange affecting Jefferson and Washington 
  Counties

 
GAC163-303-161351-
/O.CAN.KFFC.FL.W.0217.000000T0000Z-191216T1321Z/
/GRGG1.1.ER.191216T0012Z.191216T0600Z.191216T1035Z.UU/
821 AM EST Mon Dec 16 2019

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Ogeechee River near Grange.
* This takes effect immediately.
* At 7 AM Monday the stage was 17.9 feet...and falling.
* Flood stage is 18 feet.
* The river will continue to fall.
* At 18 feet...Flood stage occurs. Minor flooding of woodlands 
  occurs upstream and downstream from the gage on Georgia Highway 88.
  The water level will cover around three fourths of the Sandy Ford 
  Public Boat Ramp.
  

&&

LAT...LON 3315 8279 3321 8270 3308 8257 3303 8239
      3294 8243 3300 8263             

$$

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
602 PM EST Sun Dec 15 2019

.UPDATE FOR AVIATION...

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 221 PM EST Sun Dec 15 2019/

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Monday/...

Synoptically, a broad longwave trough will begin digging into the
southwestern CONUS, forcing moist, southwesterly flow into the Gulf
states. This plume of moisture, following a warm front, will bring
dense cloud cover and isolated showers from the northwestern corner
of Georgia all the way through the I-85 corridor, starting late
tonight. Any showers that develop should remain light with minimal
accumulations if any. By Monday, a cold front will begin making it's
way through the southeast with a line of showers and thunderstorms
making its way towards the area. Before the system arrives
temperatures will increase into the unseasonably warm mid-60s to mid-
70s, around 10-15 degrees above normal. Some isolated prefrontal
showers will be possible, but precip chances will really begin to
increase Monday evening as the cold front reached the northwestern
corner of the state. More details discussed below.

Thiem

Monday night/Tuesday...

Heading into the evening hours (Monday), will be closely monitoring
ongoing severe weather coming out of Louisiana, Mississippi and
Alabama. Hi-res/short-term models continue to show an overall
weakening trend of storm organization/intensity as broken line of
showers/storms approach northwest and west-central GA between 6 pm
and midnight Monday evening. However, low-mid 60s dewpoints yielding
just enough instability along with 40-50kt low lvl (0-3km) winds to
support small pockets of organized convection that could result
in strong to damaging winds and perhaps even a brief/spin-up
tornado. Axis of heaviest rain with this system will be across
north GA where a more prolonged period of heavier rain is likely.
As much as 1 to locally 2 inches is expected with lesser amounts
south/east of I-85.

Risk for severe includes areas along and west/north of I-85 through
daybreak Tuesday morning (12z/Tues). After 12z/Tues, potential for a
few stronger storms will exist east/south of I-85 from Columbus to
Macon and points south. However, weakening low lvl wind shear and
overall support should end overall severe threat across these areas.

Cold front gets through the ATL area around daybreak Tuesday and
will continue advancing south and east, clearing the entire forecast
area by mid afternoon. Gusty northwest winds 15-30 MPH will usher in
much colder and drier air. Maximum "high" temps will likely occur
early in the day for most locations, with temps steady or slowly
falling through the day. DJN.83

LONG TERM (Wednesday through Sunday)...

Cooler (but near seasonal) temperatures will exist across the area
Wed and Thurs but it will be dry. Next chance for precipitation
arrives late Friday into the weekend with a lot of model run-to-run
inconsistencies. Latest solutions showing a rather significant
closed upper low diving far south then tracking along the Gulf
Coast. Given the inconsistencies seen with the models and the fact
we are still 5-7 days out, am leaning towards a more conservative
forecast with just low chance POPs spreading across the area late
Friday into Saturday.

No major warm periods or cold snaps seen affecting the area through
next weekend.

DJN.83

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z Update...
Potential for MVFR ceilings to increase or continue overnight
with some potential for brief IFR ceilings toward daybreak.
Improvement to VFR is expected for most locations Monday.
Surface winds calm or light SE-SW overnight and less than 10 kts
on Monday. Light rain or showers possible late tonight and
Monday.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Low confidence for ceilings heights
Medium to high confidence all other elements.

BDL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          45  67  58  63 /  10  20  80  80
Atlanta         51  66  60  63 /  20  30  90  80
Blairsville     47  60  53  57 /  20  50  90  70
Cartersville    52  67  55  59 /  20  40  90  60
Columbus        50  71  63  65 /  10  20  80  80
Gainesville     48  64  58  62 /  20  30  90  80
Macon           45  73  61  66 /   5  10  70  80
Rome            52  68  53  57 /  20  50  90  60
Peachtree City  50  69  60  63 /  20  30  80  80
Vidalia         46  76  61  73 /   5  10  40  70

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

AVIATION...BDL

Hazardous Weather Outlook...Updated
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1055 AM EST Sun Dec 15 2019

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-160915-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
1055 AM EST Sun Dec 15 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday...

A storm system and associated cold front will increase the chance
for rain and a few thunderstorms late Monday into Tuesday. A few
storms could become strong to severe, especially west of I-75
Monday night. High winds and locally heavy rain are the primary
threats.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.