Heat Advisory 2, NWS Atlanta, GA

Bleckley County, GA, Chattahoochee County, GA, Crisp County, GA, Dodge County, GA, Dooly County, GA, Emanuel County, GA, Johnson County, GA, Laurens County, GA, Macon County, GA, Marion County, GA, Montgomery County, GA, Muscogee County, GA, Pulaski County, GA, Schley County, GA, Stewart County, GA, Sumter County, GA, Telfair County, GA, Toombs County, GA, Treutlen County, GA, Webster County, GA, Wheeler County, GA, Wilcox County, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
731 AM EDT Thu Aug 8 2019

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 401 AM EDT Thu Aug 8 2019/

SHORT TERM /Today through Friday/...

A near stationary frontal boundary remains across southern TN and W
NC. A surface trough does extend into central portions of the CWFA,
ahead of the stalled boundary. In the mid levels, a broad trough is
situated off the SE coast with the SE US mostly in NW flow aloft.

The front/trough will slowly push a little southward today. Not
confident on exactly how far south, the models seem to be a little
aggressive having the boundary settle across southern GA. Would not
be surprised to see the front/trough settle around or just north of
the Interstate 20 corridor. Wherever the front/trough decides to
settle, it should become stationary.

WV imagery shows NW flow aloft across much of the SE. NW flow aloft
will continue through the short term forecast period. One shortwave
is noted across NE Mississippi and will drop SE in the flow today.
Models keep most of the energy associated with this shortwave to the
west of GA, but it could clip the SW corner of the CWFA.

Pops should still be fairly limited today. The highest values will
be along the SW corner of the CWFA, south of the front/trough and
closest to the mid level shortwave energy moving within the flow
aloft. Even then, only isold/sct coverage is anticipated. Severe
weather is not anticipated, but a strong storm cannot be ruled out.

Do think pop chances will taper off after the loss of heating, but
will keep pops into the early morning. This seems reasonable, as
storms have continued the last two days until after midnight. Pops
will be fairly similar on Friday, but the SCT coverage should
extend a little further east.

NListemaa

LONG TERM /Friday Night through Wednesday/...

Through the long term period, the high-amplitude ridge that has been
positioned over the four corners region will continue to deamplify
and move eastward over the southern plains. By the end of the
extended period, this upper-level high pressure will elongated
longitudinally and engulf most of the southern U.S. This will push
the subtropical jet stream poleward, and increase temperatures to
around 3-9 degrees above normal, with upper 80s and low 90s in northern Georgia and
mid to upper 90s in central Georgia. Monsoonal moisture will also
continue moving into the region from the four corners and
southern plains. PWATs over 2" could enter the area by Friday
evening, with Gulf moisture continuing to move into the southeast
from the SSW near-surface winds linked to the Bermuda High in the
Atlantic.

Some relief may come through the weekend as a surface high pressure
moving across the midwest attempts to push into the southern
Appalachian states. Discrepancies continue going into the beginning
of next week.  ECMWF continues to indicate the suppression of
widespread precipitation, but the GFS still indicates an enhanced
corridor of moisture with several possible MCSs moving within the
flow to the southeastern CONUS in the beginning of next week. So
for now we're still expecting isolated to scattered chances for
thunderstorms with decreasing trends compared to earlier in the
week.

Thiem

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z Update...
SCT-BKN050 during peak heating this afternoon, otherwise VFR.
Winds will remain on the west side with a WNW direction. Speeds
should be at or right below 10kt. Pops are too low to mention at
this time with VCSH sufficing.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
High confidence all elements.

NListemaa

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          95  72  93  73 /  20  10  20  20
Atlanta         93  75  91  74 /  20  10  30  30
Blairsville     85  65  84  66 /  20  10  30  30
Cartersville    92  72  89  72 /  20  10  30  30
Columbus        96  75  94  76 /  30  20  30  30
Gainesville     91  72  89  72 /  20  10  20  20
Macon           96  74  95  75 /  30  20  30  30
Rome            93  72  90  73 /  20  10  30  30
Peachtree City  93  73  92  73 /  20  10  30  30
Vidalia         98  75  97  76 /  30  20  30  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...NListemaa
LONG TERM....Thiem
AVIATION...NListemaa

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1135 AM EDT Thu Aug 8 2019

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-091545-
Dade-Walker-Catoosa-Whitfield-Murray-Fannin-Gilmer-Union-Towns-
Chattooga-Gordon-Pickens-Dawson-Lumpkin-White-Floyd-Bartow-
Cherokee-Forsyth-Hall-Banks-Jackson-Madison-Polk-Paulding-Cobb-
North Fulton-Gwinnett-Barrow-Clarke-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Wilkes-
Haralson-Carroll-Douglas-South Fulton-DeKalb-Rockdale-Walton-
Newton-Morgan-Greene-Taliaferro-Heard-Coweta-Fayette-Clayton-
Spalding-Henry-Butts-Jasper-Putnam-Hancock-Warren-Troup-
Meriwether-Pike-Upson-Lamar-Monroe-Jones-Baldwin-Washington-
Glascock-Jefferson-Harris-Talbot-Taylor-Crawford-Bibb-Twiggs-
Wilkinson-Johnson-Emanuel-Muscogee-Chattahoochee-Marion-Schley-
Macon-Peach-Houston-Bleckley-Laurens-Treutlen-Stewart-Webster-
Sumter-Dooly-Crisp-Pulaski-Wilcox-Dodge-Telfair-Wheeler-
Montgomery-Toombs-
1135 AM EDT Thu Aug 8 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and
Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon
and evening with the highest coverage expected across portions of
Central Georgia. Some storms may become strong with strong wind
gusts, frequent cloud-to-ground lightning, and brief periods of
heavy rain.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday...

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to continue each
day throughout the week, especially during the afternoon and
evening hours. A few storms could become strong to severe with
strong wind gusts, extended periods of heavy rain, and frequent
cloud- to- ground lightning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.