Flash Flood Warning 17, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
953 PM EDT Tue Jun 11 2019

.UPDATE...
Inverted surface trough across the area along with residual
instability from the daytime heating is aiding a more or less line
of mainly showers across the ATL metro area down toward CSG. The
easterly flow that is setting up across the area will continue
shower chances overnight with minimal thunderstorm chances as
well.

BDL

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Thursday Night/...

BDL

.LONG TERM /Thursday through Wednesday/...

Baker

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 708 PM EDT Tue Jun 11 2019/

UPDATE FOR AVIATION...

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 311 PM EDT Tue Jun 11 2019/

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Wednesday Night/...

Summer time CAD event setting up across North GA today and
tomorrow ahead of a digging shortwave to our west. 500mb trof
expected to sharpen by Wednesday afternoon as energy currently
over MT heads southeast within a broader NW Flow across the center
part of the US.

Some pop up showers appearing within the wedge zone in NE GA today
which, for now is not much more than a wind shift. Some drier air
lurking in SC and NC will continue moving SW into N GA tonight
making tomorrow feel very welcome across the northern part of the
state with highs closer to overnight lows on Wed. To the south of
the wedge front, hot and humid conditions with much higher pops
expected tonight through tomorrow as combination sea breeze and a
remnant boundary aid in flaring up storms. Carrying likely pops
south and east of MCN tonight through tomorrow. Pops increase and
expand area wide overnight through tomorrow as the upper trof
approaches and flow aloft becomes more southwest. Given the cooler
drier airmass at the surface...not expecting much in the way of
storms for metro and NE GA...however...Tstorms possible esp Wed
afternoon most other areas in a ring around the CAD. SPC outlined
a marginal risk across far NW GA for Wed PM which will be closer
to the main energy...however...wouldn't be surprised to see a
stronger storm further south as the main front comes through late
Wed. Local WRF runs suggesting this as a possibility and given the
40-50kts of deep layer shear on Wednesday and GFS forecast CAPE >
1000 j/kg...cannot rule out an isolated severe storm...where
damaging winds would be the main concern. Interestingly...CAPE
drops off significantly in the wedge so any strong storms would
likely weaken as they move into the more stable CAD.

Stellman

LONG TERM /Thursday through Tuesday/...

The upper level longwave trough and associated surface low will be
lifting northeastward away from the forecast area and towards the
mid Atlantic to begin the extended period. Although there is a
slight chance for some wraparound precipitation in far north
Georgia, rain chances will otherwise be coming to an end across
north and central Georgia, as precipitation will remain focused
along the elongated frontal boundary to the south and east of the
area. A cooler and drier airmass will set up over the forecast area
behind the passage of this system, and high pressure is expected to
start building into the southeastern CONUS on Thursday and remain
through the end of the week. Temperatures on Thursday and Friday
will be well below climatological averages. This is especially true
Friday morning, when lows in the 50s with some upper 40s in the far
northeastern mountains will be generally 8-12 degrees below normal.
High temperatures on Thursday and Friday will also range from the
upper 70s across far north Georgia to the mid 80s in south-central
Georgia, which will be generally 5-8 degrees below normal.

During the weekend, the high pressure centered over the southeastern
CONUS will slowly progress eastward towards the mid Atlantic coast,
eventually moving offshore by Sunday morning. This high will then
gradually join with the Bermuda High pattern as it continues its
eastward track. Southerly flow will return to the area this weekend
on the back side of the surface high, promoting a return of low
level moisture and a subsequent rapid increase in surface dewpoints
throughout Saturday and Sunday. PoPs will similarly begin to
increase late in the weekend as the forecast area becomes entrenched
in the summertime diurnal convective pattern. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are anticipated during the afternoon and evening
across the area starting Sunday and continuing through the end of
the period.

King

AVIATION...
00Z Update...
Potential for IFR/MVFR ceilings later tonight and Wednesday
along with shower chances and some thunderstorm chances.
Surface winds becoming ENE 7-14 kt with some gusts 15-25 kts
diminishing Wednesday afternoon.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Low confidence on ceiling heights and timing later tonight and
 Wednesday.
Medium confidence for all other elements except high confidence
for wind direction once the winds go to the east side.

BDL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          64  70  60  81 /  50  60  30   5
Atlanta         67  73  62  80 /  40  40  30   5
Blairsville     59  70  55  73 /  20  40  30  20
Cartersville    66  75  60  78 /  30  40  30   5
Columbus        71  82  65  85 /  40  40  30   5
Gainesville     64  70  60  78 /  30  50  30  10
Macon           70  78  63  86 /  60  70  40   5
Rome            65  77  60  79 /  20  40  30   5
Peachtree City  67  75  61  81 / 100  40  30   5
Vidalia         71  81  67  87 /  70  80  60   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...BDL
LONG TERM....Baker
AVIATION...BDL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1132 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2019

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-121545-
Dade-Walker-Catoosa-Whitfield-Murray-Fannin-Gilmer-Union-Towns-
Chattooga-Gordon-Pickens-Dawson-Lumpkin-White-Floyd-Bartow-
Cherokee-Forsyth-Hall-Banks-Jackson-Madison-Polk-Paulding-Cobb-
North Fulton-Gwinnett-Barrow-Clarke-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Wilkes-
Haralson-Carroll-Douglas-South Fulton-DeKalb-Rockdale-Walton-
Newton-Morgan-Greene-Taliaferro-Heard-Coweta-Fayette-Clayton-
Spalding-Henry-Butts-Jasper-Putnam-Hancock-Warren-Troup-
Meriwether-Pike-Upson-Lamar-Monroe-Jones-Baldwin-Washington-
Glascock-Jefferson-Harris-Talbot-Taylor-Crawford-Bibb-Twiggs-
Wilkinson-Johnson-Emanuel-Muscogee-Chattahoochee-Marion-Schley-
Macon-Peach-Houston-Bleckley-Laurens-Treutlen-Stewart-Webster-
Sumter-Dooly-Crisp-Pulaski-Wilcox-Dodge-Telfair-Wheeler-
Montgomery-Toombs-
1132 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

Scattered thunderstorms will be possible mainly for central
Georgia this afternoon and evening. A few isolated thunderstorms
could be strong, and produce gusty winds, heavy rain, and
frequent lightning. However, no storms are expected to be severe
at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday...

Scattered thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday and Wednesday
night as a low pressure system moves off to the northwest.

Moisture and instability return on Sunday and into next week,
with scattered diurnal thunderstorms possible in the afternoons
and evening each day.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1006 PM EDT Tue Jun 11 2019

GAZ022-120245-
Forsyth GA-
1006 PM EDT Tue Jun 11 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN FORSYTH COUNTY UNTIL 1045
PM EDT...

At 1004 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Drew, or near
Cumming. This storm was nearly stationary.

  HAZARD...Heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Heavy rain may cause temporary street flooding especially
           in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Cumming, Sugar Hill, Drew and Ducktown.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Motorists should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of
control due to hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3426 8406 3414 8409 3411 8410 3409 8411
      3411 8426 3430 8424
TIME...MOT...LOC 0204Z 087DEG 2KT 3418 8420