Special Weather Statement, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
401 PM CDT Sat Apr 6 2019

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Sunday Night)...
There remains a small threat for severe weather and tornadoes with no
significant improvements in the near storm airmass until the watch is
set to expire at 6 pm. Some clearing of counties may need to be
considered from the west in the next hour or two however. A tornado
has not be detected or reported in our forecast area today, but a
radar confirmed tornado was noted just north of Williamson County
earlier this afternoon.

A convergent pattern of a lifting warm front over eastern counties
and a re-firing of thunderstorms along an eastward-propagating
outflow boundary from western counties has resulted in locally heavy
downpours of 2 to 4.5 inches over a small area of the eastern Hill
Country and the eastern halves of Travis and Williamson counties.
While much of the area is still waiting on the much anticipated rain
pattern, the areas noted above have already become saturated to the
point of resulting in some significant street flooding and some
waters rising over some low water crossings. Overall, impacts have
been spotty as has been the rains, However, the area between Johnson
City and Taylor extending south to near San Marcos is expected to see
another 1 to 3 inches of rain based on a good portion of the higher
resolution model data for late tonight into midday Sunday.

A few areas south of the FF watch area could see an isolated 4 inch
amounts, but very little rainfall has accumulated thus far outside
of the watch area. With a 90 knot upper jet streak currently diving
south along the Pacific coast of Mexico, the model run to run trends
are deeper and slower with the upper low, which should extend the
residence time of the next round of heavy rains. Much of the HRRR
runs today have shown good consistency on timing and location of
what looks to be a more widespread mcs, which should cover 80 percent
of the forecast area, with only areas NW of a Del Rio to Mountain
Home line possibly missing out on measurable rains. The axis of
heaviest rains with the next system should impact the San Antonio
area from 6 am to 11 am and the Austin area from 7 am to 1 pm. This
heavy rain axis should be along a N-S axis near Hwy 77 by 1 pm with
decreasing chances of run-off producing rains in the early afternoon.
However, the cumulative rains over the Austin metro area could lead
to lingering flood impacts through as late as 3 pm. Additional rain
chances are indicated into Sunday evening, but this should be mostly
spotty rains associated with the elevated rap- around lifting
processes from the middle and upper levels. Further wobbling and
deepening of the upper low could lead to rain chances running into
Monday morning, but these wrap-around rains should be much lighter or
on the order of 1/4 inch or less.

&&

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
The deeper trough moving over us this weekend will leave a dry regime
and light northerly flow to promote good warming under sunny skies
for Monday. Areas that have received over an inch of rain are likely
to feel some of the effects of Monday afternoon humidities as the
north winds are mostly expected to be less than 10 mph in the
afternoon. Winds are expected to remain light Monday night, but will
not factor in any chances for ground fog until we the rainfall totals
for tonight into Sunday. Sunny and hot conditions develop under
shortwave ridging aloft Tuesday into Wednesday. A few patches of
brief morning clouds may develop Thursday morning with another
mostly sunny and warm day forecast Thursday afternoon when vigorous
upper low passes well to the north of the area. Later forecasts may
need to consider warmer temperatures for Thursday afternoon as
westerly mixing of winds aloft could be a factor. As that upper low
ejects NEwd, another strong low digs into the SWrn US and brings
possibly another good chance of rain for next weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              65  75  59  83  59 /  40  60  20  10   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  65  74  59  83  58 /  50  70  20  10   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     65  74  57  84  58 /  60  70  10  10   0
Burnet Muni Airport            63  73  57  81  57 /  30  50  20  10   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           64  84  59  88  61 /  60  20   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        64  73  59  82  57 /  40  60  30  20   0
Hondo Muni Airport             64  78  57  86  59 /  80  50  10  -    0
San Marcos Muni Airport        65  75  58  83  58 /  60  70  20  10   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   67  74  60  82  57 /  60  90  40  20   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       65  75  58  85  60 /  70  70  10  10   0
Stinson Muni Airport           65  76  58  85  60 /  80  70  10  10   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for Bastrop-Blanco-
Caldwell-Hays-Lee-Travis-Williamson.

&&

Aviation...Huffman
Short-Term/Long-Term...Oaks
Public Service/Data Collection...EWilliams

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
431 AM CDT Sat Apr 6 2019

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-070945-
Llano-Burnet-Williamson-Val Verde-Edwards-Real-Kerr-Bandera-
Gillespie-Kendall-Blanco-Hays-Travis-Bastrop-Lee-Kinney-Uvalde-
Medina-Bexar-Comal-Guadalupe-Caldwell-Fayette-Maverick-Zavala-
Frio-Atascosa-Wilson-Karnes-Gonzales-De Witt-Lavaca-Dimmit-
431 AM CDT Sat Apr 6 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for South-Central Texas..

.DAY ONE...Today And Tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected today across south central
Texas. Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across most of
the region, with the main severe weather threats being large hail
and damaging wind gusts. Some locally heavy rainfall may also be
possible north of Interstate 10.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected
across most of the region Sunday. A few strong to possibly severe
storms will be possible for areas generally east of a Burnet to
San Antonio line. Confidence in severe weather development on
Sunday continues to remain low.

No hazardous weather is expected Monday through Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

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