Wind Advisory 23, NWS El Paso, TX

778 
WWUS74 KEPZ 221137
NPWEPZ

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
537 AM MDT Wed May 22 2019

...STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING DUST DEVELOP AGAIN TODAY ACROSS
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...

.Yet another Pacific storm system is approaching the Borderland
region from the west today. This means another afternoon and
evening with strong southwest winds and possible blowing dust.
Strong winds aloft will mix down from above as the day heats up
and help to bring gusty winds to the region today. Winds will
continue strong into the evening hours and then diminish in the
early nighttime hours.


NMZ402>411-414>416-230300-
/O.CON.KEPZ.WI.Y.0023.190522T1800Z-190523T0300Z/
Southern Gila Highlands/Black Range-
Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley-
Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley-Lowlands of the Bootheel-
Uplands of the Bootheel-Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin-
Eastern Black Range Foothills-Sierra County Lakes-
Northern Dona Ana County-Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley-
West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-
Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet-
East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-
Including the cities of Silver City, Lake Roberts, Kingston, 
Fort Bayard, Mimbres, Hurley, Faywood, Grant County Airport, 
Lordsburg, Red Rock, Virden, Antelope Wells, Animas, Hachita, 
Cloverdale, Deming, Columbus, Hillsboro, Winston, 
Truth Or Consequences, Derry, Spaceport, Garfield, Hatch, 
Radium Springs, Las Cruces, Vado, Sunland Park, Mescalero, 
Timberon, Mountain Park, Cloudcroft, Sunspot, Apache Summit, 
Mayhill, Pinon, and Sacramento
537 AM MDT Wed May 22 2019

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT
THIS EVENING...

* TIMING...Winds will increase through out the morning, reaching
  their peak speeds in the afternoon. Winds will begin to slowly
  diminishing after sunset, but stay breezy through late evening.
 
* WINDS...Winds speeds of 25 to 35 mph with wind gusts near 50 
  mph. 

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will make driving difficult, especially 
  in cross winds. Few areas of blowing dust could reduce 
  visibilities to 3 to 5 miles in desert areas. Small items will 
  be blown around if not tied down. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory means that sustained winds of at least 30 mph are
expected. Winds this strong can make driving difficult, 
especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

&&

$$

Bird

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
255 PM MDT Tue May 21 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
If you are counting the number of windy days across the
Borderland, add another for Wednesday. Unfortunately it won't be
the last one upcoming. Another Pacific storm system approaches
Wednesday to bring more strong and gusty southwesterly winds and
areas of blowing dust across the region. Southwestern New Mexico
will be under another Wind Advisory, while Far West Texas sees
strong winds, but falls just short of the speeds required. The
area will continue it's string of dry conditions through the rest
of the week. This means more clear skies than clouds. Each day the
upcoming weekend temperatures will to run at or above seasonal
averages. Winds will drop off Thursday through the weekend, but
still remain breezy these days, before the next strong wind event
arrives next Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
At this point in the year, the current upper-level weather
pattern suggests we are running about a month and a half behind
the typical seasonal evolution from late winter to spring to
summer. Our deeply amplified wave pattern aloft, and southern jet
position are more typical of early spring offerings than mid-May
dominance as we are currently seeing. Boiled down to measurable
weather elements, it means generally dry, mild, and windy
conditions for our region. This forecast largely follows that
theme.

Yesterday's low pressure passage is out in the plains, but
a long wave mean trough remains carved out across the Western U.S.
We sit in the base of this trough with a strong jet overhead, and
mean surface troughing to our east. The result is tight pressure
gradients and good daytime mixdown of strong winds aloft to make
for breezy to windy afternoon conditions for most days of this
7-day forecast package.

Wednesday we start a warming trend as we shift winds back to
southwest and keep dry air inbound across the region. The mean
western U.S. trough remains through the work week and we see
another low pressure system swing by, well to our north, for
Thursday. A few more clouds for the Gila but no pcpn expected. We
will see a minor Pacific front passage to cool temps just a few
degrees. The pattern of deep southwesterly flow will continue to
keep our winds in the breezy category. With the surface trough
attempting to reposition over our eastern CWFA, the western CWFA
zones will see the highest winds, while the eastern CWFA (Otero
lowlands and Far West Texas) possibly sees sub-breezy wind
conditions for Fri- Sun. With the surface trough shifting west
over the heart of our CWFA, we will also see the dryline drawn
west into Far West Texas and South Central New Mexico. Current
GFS, and to a lesser degree, the ECMWF indicate the dryline will
wash up against, and slightly intrude, our eastern boundary Friday
night into Saturday. Thus we do have slight PoPs in for Hudspeth
and Otero counties for this period. The gulf moisture should be a
very short-lived ingredient in our region, with it getting shoved
back east Saturday afternoon. However, it does linger nearby and
might try to reenter Saturday overnight into Sunday morning. We'll
watch that.

Monday and Tuesday of next week look like they could be a carbon
copy repeat of what we saw yesterday (this MON) and today (TUE).
Another deep upper low will approach from the west and then lift
across the Four Corners region. This will again position a strong
jet over the area, and induce a deep lee surface trough to our
east. Strong pressure gradients and deep mixing will bring back
strong winds similar to what we saw yesterday. It will be a dry
passage. Thus winds and dust will be be main impacts.

14-Bird

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 22/00Z-23/00Z...
VFR conditions prevail thru this period. The upper system that
affected the region yesterday is moving away, but we will still feel
its influence as windy conditions remain thru this evening.
Generally west to southwest winds with speeds between 15 to 25 kts
are expected thru 9Z. Afterwards wind speeds should decrease between
10 to 15 kts with some gusty isolated locations. The approach of
another system will increase the intensity of the winds again
tomorrow after 18Z.

29-Crespo

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Critical fire weather conditions continue over the next few days. An
upper level system that is leaving the area is responsible for
today's critical conditions, but an incoming system is responsible
for tomorrow's increased risk. More dry air is expected as the next
system tries to move into the region. Minimum relative humidity
values will be in the upper single digits and the lower teens in the
lowlands while the mountains continue in the upper teens and lower
20s over the next few days. While the winds will be around 15 to 25
mph, but stronger for the western zones with speeds in the range of
25 to 35 mph.

The winds intensity is expected to decrease on Thursday which will
prevent the development of fire weather conditions. However, it is
not by a lot. Humidity continues to be in the teens in most areas
late this week and the weekend. Early next week, we may again have
another chance for critical fire weather conditions as another
strong upper system moves in with dry air and windy conditions.

29-Crespo

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 60  88  61  84 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           54  86  57  84 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              50  81  53  79 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              52  83  54  79 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              40  59  42  56 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences   51  78  54  75 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             45  72  46  65 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  49  83  50  78 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               47  80  48  75 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      58  86  60  83 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               54  90  58  87 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            58  94  61  90 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              55  82  58  79 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  57  90  61  86 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            54  84  55  81 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          57  83  61  80 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           50  81  51  79 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   50  81  51  80 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                52  85  55  80 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               53  83  56  81 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 46  71  48  68 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero               44  69  45  65 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                42  69  43  66 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                 40  69  40  66 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro               47  76  48  73 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               48  78  50  76 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            39  72  40  64 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                  44  75  44  69 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   40  79  39  71 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              43  72  44  65 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 45  77  47  70 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  49  81  47  77 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 48  81  47  77 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          50  81  48  79 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              47  74  47  71 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for NMZ111-112.

     Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Wednesday for NMZ111-112.

     Wind Advisory from noon to 9 PM MDT Wednesday for NMZ402>411-
     414>416.

     Wind Advisory until 7 PM MDT this evening for NMZ414>416.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for TXZ055-056.

     Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Wednesday for TXZ055-056.

&&

14/29

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
642 AM MDT Tue May 21 2019

NMZ401>413-417-TXZ418>424-221245-
Upper Gila River Valley-Southern Gila Highlands/Black Range-
Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley-
Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley-Lowlands of the Bootheel-
Uplands of the Bootheel-Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin-
Eastern Black Range Foothills-Sierra County Lakes-
Northern Dona Ana County-Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley-
Central Tularosa Basin-Southern Tularosa Basin-Otero Mesa-
Western El Paso County-Eastern/Central El Paso County-
Northern Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Salt Basin-
Southern Hudspeth Highlands-
Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-
Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth County-
642 AM MDT Tue May 21 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
New Mexico, southwest New Mexico, and southwest Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight
The upper level storm system that brought winds and dust to the
region yesterday, will be moving away from the area today, but we
will still have a windy day with winds of 20 to 30 mph. Dust will
be less of a problem as the lower wind speeds and cooler
temperatures will help keep the dust down.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday
We will again be windy on Wednesday then we will take a little
break from the winds until we are breezy on Saturday and windy on
Sunday and Monday of next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not anticipated today.

NMZ414>416-221245-
West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-
Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet-
East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-
642 AM MDT Tue May 21 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
New Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight
The upper level storm system that brought winds and dust to the
region yesterday, will be moving away from the area today, but we
will still have a windy day with winds of 25 to 35 mph in the
Sacramento Mountains. The winds will begin to diminish around
sunset.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday
We will again be windy on Wednesday then we will take a little
break from the winds until we are breezy on Saturday and windy on
Sunday and Monday of next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not anticipated today.