Severe Thunderstorm Warning 14, NWS El Paso, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
322 PM MDT Fri May 31 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
The Borderland will continue to see an inflow of gulf moisture,
through the weekend, on nightly pushes from the east. With
daytime heating, there will be daily chances for isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms each afternoon through the
evenings. Temperatures will hover near seasonal normals. The far
western areas will be drier with better rain and storms chances
from the Rio Grande valley and areas east. In fact, stronger
storms, and heavier rainfall is more likely east. It appears the
pattern will change after mid week with drier air and few to no
storms across the region after Wednesday of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The synoptic scale pattern is locked in place through early next
week with little evolution through this period. Aloft we see a
deep trough/low to our west with weak high pressure to our east.
The surface pattern is also mostly fixed in place with a minor
surface trough over our region and broad high pressure over the
southeastern U.S. This pattern is not expected to change much
through next Wednesday. At lower levels we will keep a moist east
fetch with gulf moisture vacillating west and east across the
CWFA. Aloft a southwesterly fetch will keep the potential for weak
shortwave disturbances to track over the region. Those are hard to
foresee more than 12-24 hrs out. None the less, it will likely be
the combination of the increased moisture with daytime heating and
orographic lift that will generate daily rounds of afternoon and
evening showers and thunderstorms.

With the pattern generally stagnant through TUE/WED, the
temperatures will be mostly flat day-to-day, with daily highs
near, or slightly above seasonal averages. Night time lows will
be mild with the higher dewpoints keeping them up a bit. Skies
will be quite variable with fewer clouds in the early daytime
hours, with clouding each afternoon, and plenty of clouds in the
evening and overnight hours.

The precipitation pattern looks like this: Less atmospheric
moisture as you move toward the Continental Divide, with
increasing atmospheric moisture as you move east through the Rio
Grande valley into our eastern zones. Thus we have PoPs near
zero/to zero west...and increase them as you move east. This
pattern holds each day through Wednesday. In addition, dynamics
are much stronger east vs west. Thus there is a severe threat for
the areas east of the Rio Grande, but those parameters do diminish
over time as the winds aloft slacken and reduce the shear. Rain
amounts will also be graduated from west to east, with none to few
hundredths west...to near 1 inch east.

Wednesday onward the pattern transitions as the upper low to our
west ejects east and a high pressure ridge moves in from the west.
This will make for deep southwest to west flow across the region
and effectively sweep out the moisture to the east. Thus we will
end PoPs bring back dry conditions for the forecast.

14-Bird

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 01/00Z-02/00Z...
An influx of low level moisture will create scattered thunderstorm
chances east of the Rio Grande through 2-4Z. Convective allowing
models keep storms east of KELP, affecting mainly Hudspeth and Otero
counties. Therefore have continued to keep VCTS in the KELP TAF for
now, but will continue to monitor the terminal. Soundings show
clouds lowering at KELP and KLRU to 050-070 BKN-SCT through 0-3Z.
East/southeast wind 5-15 knots through 0-3Z, becoming less than 10
knots thereafter. Low-end shower chances continue overnight for KLRU
and KELP as moisture continues to increase (ceilings lower back down
to SCT 050-070 by sunrise), however the better chance for storms for
all terminals will be tomorrow after ~15-17Z.

33-Reynolds

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected east of the Rio Grande this
afternoon and early evening where a dryline has set up. Deeper
moisture begins to flow into the region overnight, pushing the
dryline to roughly the Continental Divide. This will continue shower
and thunderstorm chances through the day tomorrow, while drier
southerly flow continues over far SW New Mexico. Dry lightning
strikes can't be ruled out over the Gila region Friday.

This overall weather pattern (with a dryline and shower chances in
the moist sector/dry lightning risk) will repeat each day through
at least Tuesday. The westward progression of low level moisture
will be key in determining daily precip and dry lightning risk, but
overall the pattern continues to favor rain chances east of the
Divide. Winds over the dry sector in far SW New Mexico will be
overall light, preventing critical fire weather conditions.

33-Reynolds

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 69  94  67  94 /  50  20  10  30
Sierra Blanca           62  88  62  86 /  40  50  40  40
Las Cruces              61  90  60  91 /  30  20  10  20
Alamogordo              61  89  62  91 /  30  30  10  30
Cloudcroft              45  68  48  68 /  40  50  30  50
Truth or Consequences   61  88  61  90 /  20  20   0  20
Silver City             55  84  55  84 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  59  93  58  92 /  10  10   0  10
Lordsburg               57  92  56  92 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      67  92  67  93 /  40  20  20  30
Dell City               63  91  63  91 /  40  50  40  40
Fort Hancock            67  95  68  95 /  40  40  30  40
Loma Linda              64  87  64  86 /  50  30  30  30
Fabens                  68  95  67  94 /  50  20  20  30
Santa Teresa            63  92  62  92 /  40  20  10  20
White Sands HQ          67  90  67  91 /  40  20  10  30
Jornada Range           59  89  59  90 /  30  20  10  20
Hatch                   59  90  58  91 /  20  20   0  20
Columbus                64  95  62  94 /  20  10   0  10
Orogrande               64  89  64  89 /  40  30  20  30
Mayhill                 50  76  52  77 /  40  50  30  50
Mescalero               48  76  50  78 /  30  50  30  50
Timberon                47  75  49  75 /  40  50  30  50
Winston                 47  81  47  84 /  20  20  20  20
Hillsboro               56  86  56  89 /  20  20   0  10
Spaceport               57  88  56  89 /  20  20   0  20
Lake Roberts            48  83  49  84 /   0  20   0  10
Hurley                  53  87  53  87 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   48  91  47  92 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              51  87  54  86 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 56  87  56  87 /  10  10   0  10
Animas                  56  95  56  94 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 55  94  56  92 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          57  94  58  93 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              55  89  56  88 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

14/33