Flash Flood Warning 4, NWS El Paso, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
210 PM MDT Thu Aug 1 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Moist unstable air will flow into southern New Mexico and west
Texas under high pressure aloft and this will result in
seasonably hot temperatures along with a few showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon and this evening and again on
Friday. Showers and thunderstorms will increase this weekend and
continue into next week as deeper moisture flows into the region
behind a weak cold front. Some storms may produce very heavy
rainfalls with possible flooding.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Air mass rather moist and unstable this afternoon with CAPE's
ranging east to west from 1000 to 2000 J/kg and precipitable
water from 1 to 1.3 inches. Low levels showing typical summer
monsoonal pattern with large surface heat/thermal trough over the
western United States and high pressure to the east. Resultant
circulation is sustaining low level moisture inflow into the
region.

High pressure aloft was meanwhile centered over the Texas
panhandle early this afternoon while troughing remains along the
west coast. The circulation from these features is steering deeper
moisture from the south into western portions of the CWA while
drier warmer continental air aloft was advecting into eastern
zones. This trend is clearly shown on latest water vapor images
and explains why higher instability and moisture will be over the
western zones. Thus expect greater storm coverage high mountain
ands far western zones with isolated activity at best elsewhere
this afternoon and Friday.

Weakening cold front will drop to the southwest into the CWA
Saturday with easterly flow behind the boundary pushing abundant
moisture into the region into early next week. Surface dewpoints
should range from the lower 50s to lower 60s most areas with
elevated precipitable amounts from 1.2 to 1.5 Saturday through
at least Tuesday. The moisture will sustain instability despite
slightly cooler temperatures with afternoon CAPE's around 1000
J/kg most locations. Models also suggesting weak embedded
disturbances may be moving into the CWA around the upper high to
the north. These factors should generate increasing shower and
thunderstorm activity this weekend and early next week. Given the
ample water vapor and slow storm movement heavy rains and flash
flooding will be the primary weather hazard.

Main uncertainty is the GFS deterministic model plus the ensemble
blends show rather widespread rainfall next week while the ECMWF
remains comparatively dry due to the proximity of high pressure
aloft. Have gone with the wetter solution given the time of year
plus the well above normal precipitable water.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 02/00Z-03/00Z...
VFR conditions expected through the forecast period with FEW-SCT070-
090. The exception will be temporary periods of MVFR to IFR near
thunderstorms, which are expected in mountain locations and areas
west of the Rio Grande. At this time, have the best confidence for
VCTS/TSRA for KTCS through 3Z, but will monitor the other terminals
for storm development this evening. Wind east of the Continental
Divide will be south to southeast AOB 10 kts, and wind west of the
Divide will be south to southwest AOB 10 kts. Wind near
thunderstorms VRB up to 30-35 kts due to storm outflows.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
High pressure centered over the TX/OK panhandle continues to
influence Borderland weather as it brings in increased moisture to
the western half of the region. This will keep rain chances this
evening to the mountains and west of the Rio Grande River. However,
there is enough moisture in place for the lowlands to see a storm(s)
form if an outflow boundary moves through. Wind will generally be
southerly overnight at less than 10 mph, except around storms, and
will become light by morning.

The upper level high pressure will shift west on Friday and anchor
over the Four Corners region through the weekend. Expect similar
storm chances on Friday, with min RH in the upper teens east of the
Divide, and mid to upper 20s west of the Divide. Wind on Friday will
be southerly at less than 10 mph, with poor to fair max vent rates.
Rain chances become more widespread over the weekend as deep
moisture sets in over the area. This will bring the potential for
heavy rain and localized flash flooding.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 75 101  76 101 /  10   0  10  10
Sierra Blanca           68  96  69  96 /  10   0   0  10
Las Cruces              70  98  72  97 /  10   0  10  20
Alamogordo              70  98  72  99 /  10   0  10  30
Cloudcroft              53  76  54  74 /  20  30  20  60
Truth or Consequences   72  99  74  97 /  20  30  20  40
Silver City             64  90  65  90 /  20  30  30  50
Deming                  68  99  70  99 /  20  10  20  30
Lordsburg               69  97  71  97 /  20  20  20  30
West El Paso Metro      76 100  78 101 /  10   0  10  10
Dell City               72 102  73 101 /  10   0   0  10
Fort Hancock            76 100  76 105 /  10   0   0  10
Loma Linda              72  94  74  93 /  10   0   0  20
Fabens                  76 101  77 101 /  10   0  10  10
Santa Teresa            72 100  74  99 /  10   0  10  20
White Sands HQ          74 100  76  99 /  10   0  10  20
Jornada Range           69  99  71  98 /  10   0  10  30
Hatch                   70 100  72  99 /  10   0  10  30
Columbus                73 100  74  99 /  20   0  10  20
Orogrande               71  99  73  98 /  10   0  10  20
Mayhill                 58  87  60  83 /  20  20  20  60
Mescalero               57  86  59  84 /  20  20  20  60
Timberon                55  84  57  81 /  20  20  20  60
Winston                 58  89  60  88 /  20  30  30  60
Hillsboro               66  96  68  95 /  20  30  20  60
Spaceport               68  99  70  96 /  10  10  20  30
Lake Roberts            57  91  58  90 /  20  30  30  60
Hurley                  63  92  64  93 /  20  20  20  40
Cliff                   60  98  62  99 /  30  20  20  50
Mule Creek              65  91  67  93 /  30  20  20  50
Faywood                 66  93  67  92 /  20  20  20  50
Animas                  67  97  70  98 /  30  20  20  20
Hachita                 66  97  67  98 /  20  10  20  20
Antelope Wells          66  95  68  96 /  30  20  20  20
Cloverdale              65  89  66  90 /  30  30  20  20

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

05 Rogash/ 33 Reynolds

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1250 PM MDT Thu Aug 01 2019

NMZ401>417-TXZ418>424-022015-
Upper Gila River Valley-Southern Gila
Highlands/Black Range-Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley-
Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley-Lowlands of the Bootheel-
Uplands of the Bootheel-Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin-Eastern Black
Range Foothills-Sierra County Lakes-Northern Dona Ana County-
Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley-Central Tularosa Basin-
Southern Tularosa Basin-West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500
Feet-Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet-East Slopes Sacramento
Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Otero Mesa-Western El Paso County-
Eastern/Central El Paso County-Northern Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco
Mountains-Salt Basin-Southern Hudspeth Highlands-Rio Grande Valley
of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-Rio Grande Valley of
Eastern Hudspeth County-
1250 PM MDT Thu Aug 01 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
New Mexico, southwest New Mexico, and southwest Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

A few showers and thunderstorms across the region with most of the
storms west of the Rio Grande or over the high mountains. Several
storms may produce over an inch of rainfall resulting in localized
flooding especially around low water crossings and poor drainage
areas. Isolated storms may also produce small hail and wind gusts to
50 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

A few showers and thunderstorms across the region with most of the
storms west of the Rio Grande or over the high mountains Friday.
Several storms may produce locally heavy rains.

Showers and thunderstorms will increase across the area beginning
Sunday  with up to 2 inches of rain falling over a few locations
next week. Thus flash flooding may occur over isolated areas
especially around low water crossings and poor drainage
areas. A few road closures may be required.
.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters should stay alert mainly for heavy rains and possible
flooding around areas of thunderstorms.

Rogash

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service El Paso TX
651 PM MDT Thu Aug 1 2019

NMZ410-411-413-020130-
Southern Tularosa Basin NM-Northern Dona Ana County NM-
Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley NM-
651 PM MDT Thu Aug 1 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL DONA ANA COUNTY UNTIL 730
PM MDT...

At 650 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Organ, moving north at 5 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Las Cruces, Organ, Talavera, East Mesa, Portions of Jornada
Experimental Range, Northeast Las Cruces, Dripping Springs and
Portions of Organ Mountains Desert Peaks National Monument.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3232 10658 3227 10671 3249 10685 3257 10658
TIME...MOT...LOC 0050Z 161DEG 7KT 3241 10665

DENNHARDT