Hazardous Seas Warning 24, NWS Eureka, CA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
211 PM PDT Wed Oct 9 2019

.SYNOPSIS...Breezy conditions continue this afternoon through
tonight and will start to wane Thursday afternoon. Winds will
decrease more substantially on Friday, though dry weather will
continue through Saturday morning. A more substantial chance of
rain is expected mid to late next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The prime concern through Thursday morning will be
strengthening offshore winds and the potential for critical fire
weather conditions across the interior. Dry east to northeast flow
will increase across the ridges this afternoon and evening as high
pressure builds into the Great Basin. High resolution model guidance
continues to support ridge level gusts to around 40 mph this
evening. The gusty E-NE winds and low RH's will persist into the
early morning hours of Thursday before dying down by Thursday
afternoon. A red flag warning remains in effect this afternoon
through Thursday morning for elevations above 1500 feet for
southeast Humboldt County, southern Trinity County, and interior
Mendocino County where fuels are most receptive to rapid fire
spread.

The dry airmass and clear skies will also support strong radiational
cooling...particularly in Trinity County where sub-freezing
temperatures are forecast late tonight. Guidance continues to
indicate temperatures dipping into the upper 20s in the valleys of
central and eastern Trinity county. Wind protected valleys of
Mendocino, Humboldt and Del Norte counties will probably dip into
the mid to upper 30s early Thursday morning as well. Have
upgraded to a freeze warning in areas of Trinity county to cover
these colder temperatures tonight.

Dry weather with lighter winds are expected for Friday as shortwave
ridging develops over the West Coast. A weak surface front is
forecast to approach coastal NW California late on Saturday. Light
showers may move onshore during Saturday afternoon and
evening...mainly impacting locations north of Cape Mendocino. Broad
upper ridging will redevelop over the area Monday and Tuesday,
followed by a potentially stronger storm system during the middle of
next week. Rain will be possible with this storm mid to late next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...Mostly clear skies and gusty winds...especially along the
coast and ridge tops...persisted across the region today. Early
morning light winds allowed for LLWS around 1,500 feet to manifest
until stronger winds filtered down to the surface. Also, offshore
flow and low relative humidities, due to high pressure slowly
sinking into the Great Basin, contributed to windy conditions. On
Thursday surface winds will become more relaxed as ridging from
the high increases and the gradient weakens. However, above
surface winds will allow for another LLWS event tonight at CEC.
Skies will remain mostly clear across the region overnight and
Thursday. /TA

&&

.MARINE...Northerly winds will continue to gradually increase across
the waters today and tonight with the strongest winds over the S
outer waters. Gale Warnings continue for all but the N inner waters.
The Gale Warning for the S inner waters still appears to be
marginal, but kept the warning intact for this package. Short
period seas will continue to build to nearly 15 ft in the S outer
waters today. Winds are forecast to max out this evening, with
speeds rapidly diminishing on Thursday. Light winds are expected
for Friday and Saturday, followed by moderately increasing
northerlies once again on Sunday. These northerlies are not
expected to be nearly as strong as the current event. SEC/TDJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A critically dry boundary layer airmass has
spread across the region today and will linger through Thursday,
with afternoon humidity values ranging from 5 to 15 percent and
very little recovery occurring overnight. In addition,
strengthening high pressure over the Great Basin will aid in the
development of east- northeast ridgetop winds gusting from 20 to
40 mph. Fuel conditions are expected to be most receptive to fast
moving wildfires for elevations above 1500 feet over southeast
Humboldt County, southern Trinity County, and interior Mendocino
County...which supports the issuance of a Red Flag Warning.
Elsewhere, fuels are more moist, which precludes the issuance of a
Red Flag Warning at this time. JMG/TDJ

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Red Flag Warning until 11 AM PDT Thursday for CAZ212-276-277.

     Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM PDT Thursday for CAZ107-108.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...Gale Warning until midnight PDT tonight for PZZ470-475.

     Gale Warning until 9 PM PDT this evening for PZZ455.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Thursday for PZZ450.

&&

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For forecast zone information
see the forecast zone map online:
https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png

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