Tornado Warning 26, NWS Kansas City, MO

937 
WWUS53 KEAX 012024
SVSEAX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
324 PM CDT Tue Oct 1 2019

MOC005-012033-
/O.EXP.KEAX.TO.W.0026.000000T0000Z-191001T2030Z/
Atchison MO-
324 PM CDT Tue Oct 1 2019

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN ATCHISON COUNTY WILL EXPIRE
AT 330 PM CDT...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for northwestern
Missouri.

LAT...LON 4058 9577 4058 9544 4046 9567 4048 9570
      4049 9568 4051 9569 4052 9566 4055 9566
      4056 9568 4052 9571 4052 9575 4053 9577
      4056 9576 4057 9577
TIME...MOT...LOC 2023Z 237DEG 39KT 4062 9557 

$$

Mell

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
253 PM CDT Tue Oct 1 2019

.Discussion...
Issued at 249 PM CDT TUE OCT 1 2019

Severe potential this afternoon/evening and heavy rain/flooding
potential through tomorrow highlight the near-term concerns.

For this afternoon, warm and humid conditions with modest mid-
level lapse rates should lead to MLCAPE values in the 2000 to 2500
J/kg range. Strong mid to upper-level flow should lead to strong
shear. Winds at the surface are south-southwesterly and gusting in
the 20 to 30 kt range. Low-level hodographs are fairly straight
this afternoon, but as the low-level jet increases, some curvature
is introduced. Given this there may be a trend to having some
supercell structures this afternoon into early this evening as the
low-level jet increases and adds some curvature to the
hodographs. The tornado threat will remain low, but not zero, and
wouldn't be surprised to see storms show some rotation this
afternoon/early this evening before things fill in and
precipitation becomes widespread along and behind the southward
moving front. That will transition us into the flooding threat for
the evening and overnight hours. Moisture transport is
impressive, once again, with strong contributions in the lower
levels from the Gulf, and strong contributions in the upper levels
from the Pacific. Precipitable water values are near or exceeding
the max values for this time of year based on sounding
climatology. The one thing that may limit extremely heavy rainfall
is some progression southward of the rain area. But with PWATs
that high, rain rates will be very heavy so flash flooding and
new/worsening river flooding will continue to be an issue. The
current forecast has widespread amounts in northwestern MO around
2 inches. Far northwestern MO may see 2-3 inch amounts and there
will very likely be localized higher amounts, depending on how
fast any convection moves, or if there is better training than
anticipated. Given where the heavy rain is forecast, the alignment
of the current flash flood watch looks good.

Tomorrow, the front may be splitting the KC area in half. There may
be a 10 to 15 degree spread in high temperatures tomorrow afternoon,
just across the KC Metro with cooler temperatures in the upper 60s
northern Platte county, and low middle 80s in southeastern Jackson
county. With the front sitting on top of the metro, additional heavy
rains are possible. This would especially true across the southern
third of the forecast area, where stronger instability may be able
to build. There is inherently more uncertainty with this given the
frontal position but for now, areas from the southern KC metro
southward could see 1 to 1.5 inches of rain, with some localized
areas seeing more than that tomorrow afternoon and evening.

For the rest of the forecast, temperatures more representative of
fall are expected. Highs on Thursday and Friday should be in the 60s
across the area, with some areas in far northwestern MO possibly
staying in the 50s. Another round of rainfall, some of it heavy,
should move through Friday night into Saturday. But with a
progressive upper system, the threat of widespread heavy rainfall
should be mitigated. Fall-like temperatures should then persist
through the remainder of the forecast.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT TUE OCT 1 2019

VFR conditions to start the forecast will deteriorate to IFR by
tomorrow morning. Showers and storms will become more widespread
across northwestern MO and northeastern. This activity will spread
southward with time overnight as a cold front approaches the area.
By tomorrow morning widespread rainfall with some embedded
thunderstorms will spread across the area with ceilings trending
to IFR. Some visibility restrictions are expected as well.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Flash Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Wednesday
     evening for KSZ025-102.

MO...Flash Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Wednesday
     evening for MOZ001-002-011-012-020.

     Flash Flood Watch from 1 AM CDT Wednesday through Wednesday
     evening for MOZ003>007-013>016.

&&

Discussion...CDB
Aviation...CDB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
425 AM CDT Tue Oct 1 2019

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-020930-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
425 AM CDT Tue Oct 1 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

 Strong to severe storms are possible across northwest Missouri this
 afternoon and evening. Main hazards include the potential for
 strong wind gusts, large hail, along with an isolated tornado risk.
 Flash flooding concerns will increase overnight into Wednesday over
 sensitive areas, given the recent heavy rainfall over last weekend.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

 Isolated strong to severe storms are possible across central
 Missouri Wednesday afternoon and evening. Some storms may produce
 strong wind gusts and/or large hail. Flooding potential will remain
 in place through Thursday across northwest to north central
 Missouri.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo