Special Weather Statement, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1100 PM CST Wed Nov 20 2019

.Discussion...
Issued at 242 PM CST WED NOV 20 2019

Latest water vapor imagery with 1.5 pvu pressure overlaid shows a
large upper trough over southern California. A leading upper wave
was moving out of the Four Corners region. Strong ascent ahead of
the leading wave, along with strong moisture transport into the
area, is leading to showers and storms in western Oklahoma. As this
wave continues to track to the northeast, rain with embedded
thunderstorms will become more widespread across eastern Kansas and
Missouri. The timing of this should be late this afternoon/ this
evening for onset with precipitation becoming widespread late this
evening and overnight. Rain amounts with this system should
generally be about a quarter to half an inch, with localized higher
amounts in areas of convection. The cold front associated with this
upper trough will move through the area tomorrow morning. Cold
advection behind this front will lead to falling through the day. So
temperatures in the mid 50s around sunrise in the KC area will fall
to around 40 by sunset.

For Friday into Saturday, what's left of the now sheered apart main
upper trough will move through the area. This may result in some
light precipitation across the area. The better chances will remain
south of the forecast area but there's still a small chance for
precipitation far enough north that some wintry weather is possible.
Little or no precipitation is expected at this time and confidence
that anything will actually fall further north is low.

Quiet weather with cooler than normal temperatures are expected over
the weekend. There remains very little agreement with the models for
next week. The GFS has had a signal for a strong winter storm in the
middle of the country. The Canadian and the ECMWF have flipped from
having a system to no system to varying the strength of the the
system that moves through. So there remains little confidence in the
forecast for next week at this time.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1046 PM CST WED NOV 20 2019

Scattered showers will persist over the terminals through the
overnight hours, while the more moderate showers along a cold
front will push through the area within the 09Z to 10Z time frame.
There is some potential for marginal low-level wind shear
overnight as winds near 2kft approach 45 to 50 knots, though
directional shear will be minimal and speed shear will be marginal
given increased surface winds. Precipitation will clear east by
the early morning, though MVFR ceilings will likely linger through
the morning and into the afternoon. Will see a gradual improvement
by Thursday evening, while winds remain northwesterly in the wake
of the cold front.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

Discussion...CDB
Aviation...Welsh

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
502 AM CST Wed Nov 20 2019

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-211115-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
502 AM CST Wed Nov 20 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A few embedded thunderstorms will be possible this evening, but no
hazardous weather is expected at this time.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

 No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
221 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2019

KSZ025-103>105-MOZ012>014-020>023-028>030-037-210900-
Wyandotte KS-Leavenworth KS-Johnson KS-Atchison KS-Buchanan MO-
Ray MO-Livingston MO-Andrew MO-Clay MO-Platte MO-Clinton MO-
Daviess MO-De Kalb MO-Jackson MO-Caldwell MO-
221 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LEAVENWORTH...SOUTHEASTERN
ATCHISON...WYANDOTTE...NORTHERN JOHNSON...EASTERN BUCHANAN...
SOUTHEASTERN ANDREW...NORTHWESTERN JACKSON...NORTHWESTERN
LIVINGSTON...SOUTHERN DAVIESS...CLAY...CLINTON...NORTHWESTERN RAY...
CALDWELL...PLATTE AND DEKALB COUNTIES UNTIL 300 AM CST...

At 221 AM CST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Stewartsville to Dearborn to near McLouth
to near Williamstown. Movement was east at 60 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Kansas City, Overland Park, Independence, Shawnee, Lenexa,
Leavenworth, Leawood, Liberty, Gladstone, Prairie Village, Lansing,
Excelsior Springs, Merriam, Cameron, Mission, Smithville, Kearney,
Bonner Springs, De Soto and Parkville.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 70 in Missouri between mile markers 0 and 9.
 Interstate 70 in Kansas between mile markers 410 and 423.
 Interstate 35 in Missouri between mile markers 0 and 68.
 Interstate 35 in Kansas between mile markers 225 and 235.
 Interstate 29 between mile markers 0 and 42.
 Interstate 635 between mile markers 0 and 12.
 Interstate 435 between mile markers 3 and 64.
 Kansas Turnpike between mile markers 206 and 226.

LAT...LON 3938 9518 3950 9495 3994 9458 3996 9363
      3940 9400 3896 9460 3897 9506 3899 9507
      3897 9509 3898 9516 3898 9519
TIME...MOT...LOC 0821Z 250DEG 50KT 3970 9454 3954 9475 3921 9511 3903
9529

Kurtz