Severe Thunderstorm Warning 8, NWS Kansas City, MO

897 
WWUS53 KEAX 180143
SVSEAX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
843 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2019

MOC025-047-095-177-180200-
/O.CON.KEAX.SV.W.0008.000000T0000Z-190418T0200Z/
Clay MO-Ray MO-Caldwell MO-Jackson MO-
843 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2019

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT
FOR EAST CENTRAL CLAY...CENTRAL RAY...SOUTHEASTERN CALDWELL AND
NORTHEASTERN JACKSON COUNTIES...

At 843 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 7 miles southeast of Cowgill to 9 miles north of
Richmond to near Woods Heights to near Orrick, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Trained weather spotters.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Richmond, Braymer, Orrick, Henrietta, Rayville and Knoxville. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Continuous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature's leading
killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to
be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 3943 9377 3931 9383 3922 9398 3921 9426
      3939 9407 3952 9397 3960 9376
TIME...MOT...LOC 0143Z 259DEG 21KT 3947 9385 3942 9394 3932 9407 3924
9416

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Kurtz

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
646 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2019

.Discussion...
Issued at 322 PM CDT WED APR 17 2019

First severe weather threat of the season expected to get underway
late this afternoon and and evening as well-advertised cold front
moves south over the region. Afternoon 1-min visible satellite
imagery finally starting to show some breaks in the overlying
status deck, which should help the atmosphere become weak to
moderately unstable as MLCAPE values exceed 1500-2000 J/kg later
today. Biggest uncertainty with this evening's event continues to
be the strength of the capping inversion, and whether enough
frontal convergence and column lifting associated with large-scale
ascent from an approaching shortwave to our northwest will be
able to provide enough forcing to initiate surface based
convection. In fact, latest ACARS soundings from MCI still show a
fairly strong cap in place over our region, which may be showing
some signs of weakening as latest 7.34 um water vapor imagery is
showing the warmest brightness temperatures associated with the
cap beginning to move east into eastern Missouri and western
Illinois. Given this scenario, along with the fact that various
high-res model solution's suggest the cold front will eventually
light up early this evening, we expect expect activity to get
underway around the 00z time frame.

An additional area of uncertainty continues to be just how much of
this activity impacts the greater Kansas City Metro. Latest high-
res model runs seem to want to develop convection a little further
north than previously expected, which means a sizable portion of
the KC metro may be under the gun for developing storms later this
evening. That said, best chances still look to occur along and
south of the I-35 corridor, with activity decreasing in areal
extent the further north one goes. In any event, given sufficient
buoyancy for ascent, along with unidirectional shear profiles
through the atmospheric column, it currently appears the main
threats will be large hail and strong winds owing to steep low
and mid-level lapse rates along with decent downdraft CAPE values
(500-1000 J/kg) which should allow adequate mixing of
thunderstorm generated downdrafts to the surface. Storm mode will
likely be messy as deep-layered shear vectors will become
increasingly parallel to the incoming boundary as the evening
hours progress. While enough shear may exist for a few isolated
storms initially, the prevailing idea is that activity will
congeal into a MCS fairly quickly this evening. While an isolated
tornado or two cannot be ruled out with initial discrete activity,
the main threats will undoubtedly be large hail and strong winds,
especially as activity becomes more and more linear in nature.

In addition to the severe wx threat, the other concern will be the
potential for heavy rainfall as models continue to paint 1+"
amounts across southern portions of the fcst area, especially
south of Route 50. Fortunately, 1- and 3-hr flash flood guidance
values largely remain over 2" for a good portion of the area,
which combined with the expectation that the heaviest rains will
occur over a non-urban landscape, should promote a limited flash
flood threat despite PWAT values exceeding the 90th percentile
for this time of year.

Rain/storms should gradually start working to the south and east
during the predawn hours which should be followed by a drying
trend on Thursday. Temperatures will be noticeably cooler both
Thursday and Friday as cold air advection remains in place both
days. From this point forward, the fcst largely looks dry through
the first half of the weekend before a southward sagging cold
front brings the next chance for organized rainfall to the area on
Easter Sunday. And looking even further out, unsettled weather
looks to remain across the region through midweek as longwave
troughing takes hold over the southern Rockies and Plains, which
should allow several migrating disturbances to pass overhead in
persistent southwesterly flow aloft.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 646 PM CDT WED APR 17 2019

Cold front moving slowly southeastward across all TAF sites will
arrive between 00z-02z, bringing through a broken line of storms
and a sharp wind shift to the northwest. Ceilings should be mostly
VFR but may drop briefly below 3 kft in individual storms.
Otherwise, no significant aviation hazards are expected.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

Discussion...32
Aviation...Laflin

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
449 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2019

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-181000-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
449 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Storm chances return this evening. Some storms could be strong to
severe between 6 PM and 10 PM, with large hail and damaging winds
the primary threats.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
655 PM CDT WED APR 17 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0644 PM     HAIL             5 ESE SANTA ROSA        39.96N 94.12W
04/17/2019  E0.70 INCH       DAVIESS            MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MPING.

&&

JP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
701 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2019

KSZ057-060-180045-
Miami KS-Linn KS-
701 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN MIAMI AND NORTHWESTERN
LINN COUNTIES UNTIL 745 PM CDT...

At 701 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Greeley, or 8 miles east of Garnett, moving northeast at 35 mph.

Pea size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Paola, Osawatomie, Parker, Fontana, New Lancaster and Beagle.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
east central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3825 9507 3826 9506 3842 9507 3859 9490
      3855 9475 3844 9468 3823 9507
TIME...MOT...LOC 0001Z 227DEG 29KT 3831 9509

Kurtz

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
707 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2019

MOZ013-020-021-180045-
Buchanan MO-Clinton MO-De Kalb MO-
707 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL BUCHANAN...NORTHERN
CLINTON AND SOUTHERN DEKALB COUNTIES UNTIL 745 PM CDT...

At 707 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Agency, or 7 miles northwest of Gower, moving east at 35 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
St. Joseph, Cameron, Stewartsville, Agency, Osborn, Easton and
Turney.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
northwestern Missouri.

LAT...LON 3962 9478 3969 9476 3974 9478 3986 9429
      3975 9423 3963 9427
TIME...MOT...LOC 0007Z 259DEG 30KT 3968 9472

Kurtz

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
721 PM CDT WED APR 17 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0656 PM     HAIL             4 NNW FAUCETT           39.65N 94.83W
04/17/2019  E1.25 INCH       BUCHANAN           MO   PUBLIC

&&

JP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
733 PM CDT WED APR 17 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0705 PM     HAIL             3 NNW AGENCY            39.68N 94.76W
04/17/2019  E1.25 INCH       BUCHANAN           MO   PUBLIC

&&

EH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
811 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2019

MOZ022-029>031-037-180200-
Ray MO-Carroll MO-Jackson MO-Caldwell MO-Clay MO-
811 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN CLAY...RAY...
NORTHWESTERN CARROLL...SOUTHEASTERN CALDWELL AND NORTHEASTERN JACKSON
COUNTIES UNTIL 900 PM CDT...

At 811 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Lawson to Woods Heights to near Missouri
City to near Liberty. Movement was east at 30 mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Liberty, Excelsior Springs, Richmond, Pleasant Valley, Orrick,
Glenaire, Crystal Lakes, Sibley, Missouri City, Excelsior Estates,
River Bend, Woods Heights, Rayville, Mosby, Homestead, Prathersville
and Knoxville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
north central and west central Missouri.

LAT...LON 3961 9369 3950 9371 3934 9389 3915 9421
      3921 9448 3928 9438 3937 9424 3949 9411
TIME...MOT...LOC 0111Z 250DEG 25KT 3942 9411 3935 9416 3928 9427 3924
9435

Kurtz