Severe Thunderstorm Warning 71, NWS Kansas City, MO

140 
WWUS53 KEAX 241029
SVSEAX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
529 AM CDT Fri May 24 2019

KSC043-MOC087-241039-
/O.EXP.KEAX.SV.W.0071.000000T0000Z-190524T1030Z/
Doniphan KS-Holt MO-
529 AM CDT Fri May 24 2019

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WESTERN DONIPHAN AND CENTRAL
HOLT COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 530 AM CDT...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  However gusty
winds are still possible with this thunderstorm.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 AM CDT for
northeastern Kansas...and northwestern Missouri.

LAT...LON 4027 9523 4026 9519 3966 9510 3966 9534
      4000 9534 4000 9531 4003 9535 4003 9540
      4004 9542 4006 9542 4007 9539 4012 9539
      4017 9547
TIME...MOT...LOC 1029Z 240DEG 48KT 4036 9493 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
448 AM CDT Fri May 24 2019

.Mesoscale Discussion...
Issued at 440 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2019

Upstream convection across northeast Kansas is currently
advecting into a favorable bulk shear environment of 50 to 60
knots, capable of strengthening storms through early Friday
morning across northeast Kansas and northwest Missouri.
Additionally, 0-3 km storm relative helicity averages near 500
m2/s2 may support potential tornadoes within the strongest
storms. Strong to damaging winds are possible across northeast
Kansas to north central Missouri as the line of storms quickly
push eastward through the early to mid morning hours.

&&

.Discussion...
Issued at 336 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2019

A line of storms stretched across south central Kansas to
southeast Nebraska will continue to drift northeast with time
early Friday morning. Main steering flow aloft and a northward
moving synoptic boundary draped over northern Missouri should keep
most of this activity across far northwest Missouri this morning,
initially. As the morning progresses, however, a southwesterly to
northeasterly oriented low-level jet will veer with time and any
cold pool propagation from ongoing convection to the northwest
will eventually bring the line of storms to the south through mid
Friday morning into the afternoon. The initial concern will
continue to be with the potential for flash flooding across
northwest Missouri Friday morning. Anomalously high PWAT values on
the order of 1.5" to 1.75" are expected today into Saturday as a
surge of Gulf moisture continues to advect northward with time. A
break in activity is expected by the late morning and early
afternoon as the upstream line of storms weakens with time. The
overall synoptic boundary and any lingering outflow boundaries
will serve as the focus for renewed convection this afternoon,
persisting into the overnight. Though the exact placement of the
primary axis for storm development depends on ongoing convection
across central Kansas, the extent of the low-level jet veering,
and the placement of the warm front, generally thinking that
storms will form along an axis from eastern Kansas to northeast
Missouri. Storms should quickly form a line and undergo little to
no eastward movement as the mid/upper level ridge across the
southeastern CONUS retrogrades into the evening. Have issued a
Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning within this area given
sensitive antecedent conditions and resulting low flash flood
guidance, and where forecast rainfall amounts range from 1.5" to
2.25", with locally higher amounts possible. Additionally, dew
point values will increase into the lower 70s by the afternoon,
with SBCAPE values expected over 2500 J/kg and deep layer shear
averaging between 30 to 40 kts. All combined, this will present
the potential for severe weather this afternoon and evening with
the primary hazards being large hail and strong to damaging winds,
with an isolated tornado risk also possible.

While the severe threat will wane as the evening progresses, the
potential for flash flooding will increase during the evening and
overnight hours. All said, particularly with this occurring on a
Friday evening and night, drivers will need to exercise caution
should roadways become flooded.

The local area will remain well within the warm sector until the
upcoming mid-week, which will help to maintain additional storm
chances through the weekend and early work week as a subsequent
upper level trough advances over the west coast by the late
weekend. Additional flooding hazards are likely beyond the
current Flash Flood Watch, which will need to be addressed during
subsequent forecasts. River flooding concerns will also persist
well into next week as the active pattern resumes.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1211 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2019

The warm front has lifted to the vicinity of the terminals.
Thunderstorms are developing along and north of the front from
northwestern MO through southwestern KS. These storms are
generally moving to the northeast. The overall area of storms
should eventually shift south and start to impact the terminals
later tonight. Then through the day tomorrow, there is a good
chance the showers with embedded thunderstorms. It's actually hard
to find a period of time when there isn't some chance for
precipitation. Ceilings and visibility may drop to low MVFR or IFR
through the rounds of precipitation.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for KSZ025-102.

     Flash Flood Watch from 10 AM CDT this morning through Saturday
     morning for KSZ103>105.

MO...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for MOZ001-002-011-
     012-020.

     Flash Flood Watch from 10 AM CDT this morning through Saturday
     morning for MOZ003>008-013>017-021>024-028>030-037.

&&

Mesoscale...Welsh
Discussion...Welsh
Aviation...CDB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
518 AM CDT Thu May 23 2019

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-241030-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
518 AM CDT Thu May 23 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Thunderstorms will move into the area from eastern Kansas late this
evening. A few strong wind gusts and heavy rainfall are the greatest
weather hazards at this time.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Active weather continues Friday into Saturday, with a continued
potential for severe weather and flash flooding.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo