Severe Thunderstorm Warning 308, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
619 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019

.Discussion...
Issued at 209 PM CDT SUN OCT 20 2019

Forecast focus is for potential of strong to severe thunderstorms
tonight, and gusty winds on Monday.

For the rest of today clouds and winds will increase ahead of
deepening upper level trough to the west. Winds will stay in the 15-
30 mph range through sunset.

Cold front will move into the western counties and KC Metro area
this evening through about midnight expect showers and thunderstorms
to develop west of area this afternoon and move into far western
counties between 7 and 8 pm and affecting the KC Metro area between
roughly 8 pm and midnight and then heading east overnight and will
be east of the area by the early morning hours. Some thunderstorms
could be strong to severe due to decent mid level lapse rates, deep
layer shear of 50-60 knots and even some helicity due to low level
winds from southeast. However due to limited moisture with dewpoints
in mid to upper 50s and PW's near an inch and CAPE below 1000 most
storms will stay below severe limits. Any storms that do become
strong to severe could contain hail up to the size of quarters and
half dollars and wind gusts of 50-60 mph. The best chance for severe
storms will be south of the I-70 corridor where slightly better
instability will exist.

Monday and Tuesday strong westerly and northwesterly flow develops
behind front as pressure gradient and cold air advection mixes wind
to the surface. Gusts of 25-35 mph likely with gusts to 40 mph
possible in some areas, but do not expect advisory level winds.
Otherwise just a tad bit cooler Monday and Tuesday to start the work
week with highs in upper 50s to near 60 and lows in 40s.

Another deepening trough to the west on Thursday will bring
increasing chances of rain as a frontal system moves across the
area. Its shaping up to be a cool rainy day on Thursday with highs
in the 40s. Finally, Friday looks chilly with lows near freezing.
Still some uncertainty with the evolution of this system on Thursday
and Friday due to large model differences, stay tuned...

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 617 PM CDT SUN OCT 20 2019

The main threat for aviation tonight will be a line of showers and
thunderstorms that will push through the KS/MO border area between
3-6Z. This line does look to be continuous from north to south so
there will not be many breaks as it pushes through. There is a
lower end chance of some stronger winds as it pushes through, but
went with 25kts for now. Winds will shift from SE to W quickly as
the front passes and as we heat up tomorrow gust up to 30kts will
be possible until sunset.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

Discussion...Christensen
Aviation...Barham

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
457 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-211000-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
457 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

 Dense fog this morning will reduced visibility to less than a
 quarter of a mile at times.

 This evening thunderstorms will develop over the area. Some of these
 storms may be strong with an isolated severe storm possible. The
 main threat will be for hail up to the size of a quarter.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

 No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
902 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019

KSZ025-102-210245-
Doniphan KS-Atchison KS-
902 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN DONIPHAN AND
ATCHISON COUNTIES UNTIL 945 PM CDT...

At 901 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Denison, or near Holton, moving northeast at 45 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Atchison, Effingham, Lancaster, Muscotah, Denton, Farmington, Huron,
Leona and Arrington.

LAT...LON 3965 9556 3965 9534 3979 9534 3979 9533
      3961 9507 3958 9509 3958 9510 3942 9536
      3942 9557
TIME...MOT...LOC 0201Z 227DEG 40KT 3946 9561

PP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
918 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019

MOZ001-210300-
Atchison MO-
918 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN ATCHISON COUNTY
UNTIL 1000 PM CDT...

At 917 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Peru, or 23 miles west of Tarkio, moving northeast at 55 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northwestern
Atchison County.

This includes Interstate 29 between mile markers 118 and 123.

LAT...LON 4058 9577 4058 9551 4046 9566 4047 9570
      4049 9568 4051 9569 4054 9565 4056 9567
      4056 9569 4052 9571 4052 9575 4053 9577
TIME...MOT...LOC 0217Z 213DEG 47KT 4049 9583

PP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
938 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019

KSZ025-102-MOZ011-012-020-210315-
Doniphan KS-Atchison KS-Buchanan MO-Holt MO-Andrew MO-
938 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DONIPHAN...CENTRAL ATCHISON...
NORTHWESTERN BUCHANAN...SOUTHEASTERN HOLT AND SOUTHWESTERN ANDREW
COUNTIES UNTIL 1015 PM CDT...

At 937 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Denton, or 8 miles south of Highland, moving northeast at 40 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
St. Joseph, Atchison, Wathena, Elwood, Highland, Troy, Country Club
Villa, Country Club, Horton, Oregon, Effingham, Amazonia, Lancaster,
Fillmore, Muscotah, Denton, Doniphan, Severance, Farmington and
Huron.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 29 between mile markers 51 and 72.
 Interstate 229 between mile markers 7 and 14.

LAT...LON 3966 9555 3965 9534 3983 9534 4007 9504
      3985 9474 3942 9537 3958 9557 3965 9557
TIME...MOT...LOC 0237Z 230DEG 34KT 3974 9526

PP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1013 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019

KSZ025-102-MOZ011-012-020-028-210400-
Doniphan KS-Atchison KS-Platte MO-Buchanan MO-Holt MO-Andrew MO-
1013 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN DONIPHAN...EASTERN
ATCHISON...CENTRAL BUCHANAN...SOUTHEASTERN HOLT...NORTHWESTERN PLATTE
AND ANDREW COUNTIES UNTIL 1100 PM CDT...

At 1013 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Troy, moving northeast at 45 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
St. Joseph, Atchison, Savannah, Wathena, Elwood, Troy, Country Club
Villa, Country Club, Union Star, Amazonia, Rushville, Lancaster,
Fillmore, Lewis And Clark Village, Doniphan, De Kalb, Rosendale,
Cosby, Farmington and Rea.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 29 between mile markers 42 and 67.
 Interstate 229 between mile markers 0 and 14.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3953 9536 4011 9492 4005 9460 3985 9460
      3942 9509 3942 9518
TIME...MOT...LOC 0313Z 230DEG 37KT 3968 9508

PP