Severe Thunderstorm Warning 27, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
631 PM CDT Tue May 14 2019

.Mesoscale Discussion...
Issued at 631 PM CDT TUE MAY 14 2019

Agitated cu field from far southeast NE through north central MO
starting to show signs of glaciation in day cloud phase RGB, and
while robust deep convection has struggled to develop thus far, it
appears forcing from the shortwave trough has been enough to break
the cap and allow CI to occur. Updrafts are moving into higher
instability (RAP analyzed 2000+ J/kg), but dry air entraining into
the developing updrafts and a lack of super-supportive deep layer
shear may keep most storms sub-severe even as storm coverage
increases. May be looking at a few hour window of scattered storms
capable of producing small hail or a brief damaging wind gust,
mainly along and east of a line from STJ to Sedalia, beginning
within the next 30 mins.

&&

.Discussion...
Issued at 308 PM CDT TUE MAY 14 2019

Today's setup for afternoon and evening convection is a complex
situation as there is not strong forcing in the lower or upper
levels. This pattern is more reminiscent of a June/July pattern with
NW flow aloft and then surface heating with a weak surface boundary
running W-E over the area. The uncertainty really comes into play on
the location of where modified cumulus and eventual thunderstorms
will form up. CAMs were going with northern Missouri in earlier runs
but the HRRR has started to back off on that and forms storms along
the boundary after sunset. Performing a current analysis of the
surface observations, satellite, and SPC Mesoanalysis page we feel
the most likely initiation point would be over northwest Missouri
down into the Lake of the Ozarks late this afternoon. This would be
more in line with the Nam 3km solution (12z and newest 18z run).
Dewpoints are expected to rise through sunset and this should help
initiate what is needed at the surface for convective temperatures
as we are already into the low 80s in places. A weak mid level
shortwave is observable on RAP 700hPa temperatures will move into
northern Missouri late this afternoon which may be the trigger to
weaken the capping inversion. This area is also co-located with the
highest area of surface convergence which will help develop the
cumulus. If all this comes together and the cap does break storms
should form late this afternoon (5-6pm)over northwest Missouri and
then slowly propagate to the SE firing along the warm frontal
boundary after sunset if enough convergence is still there. The
severe potential will be there at that time with MLCAPE near 2000
J/kg, effective bulk shear of 25-30kts, DCAPE near 1000 J/kg, and
steep mid level lapse rates. The main threats with these storms will
be damaging winds with large hail also being a possibility. This
window is very small though as by 8-9pm all the instability will
begin to dissipate.

Wednesday and Thursday look to be rather quite precipitation wise
with a strong mid and upper level ridge moving into the area. This
ridge and subsequent strong southerly flow will cause WAA in the low
levels and bring the hottest day of the year on Thursday with highs
near 90s degrees and heat index values into the 90s. This ridge will
hold up one more day on Friday keeping us precip free and hot and
humid before the faucet turns back on Saturday.

Saturday through next Tuesday look very active as a deep shortwave
trough pushes into the southern plains with southwest flow
persisting into the week. The main activity looks to be on Saturday
and Tuesday with long range guidance. Severe weather looks possible
late Saturday afternoon when the shear and instability match up, but
the main threat looks to be high rates of precipitation and
potential flooding as that boundary moves through slowly. GFS
indicates Tuesday could be a possible severe weather pattern, but
the ECMWF is quite a bit different so PoPs remain low until that
uncertainty is resolved.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 631 PM CDT TUE MAY 14 2019

VFR conditions expected at all TAF sites. A few isolated storms
may develop in the vicinity of KSTJ, but most thunderstorm
activity should remain east of the terminals. Light winds will
become variable in direction overnight, and a brief period of
patchy fog is possible around sunrise.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

Mesoscale...Laflin
Discussion...Barham
Aviation...Laflin

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
509 AM CDT Tue May 14 2019

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-151015-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
509 AM CDT Tue May 14 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

 A few strong thunderstorms are possible today. Hail to quarter size
 and 50 to 60 mph winds are possible in the strongest storms.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

 An active weather pattern will develop this weekend into early next
 week with several rounds of thunderstorms expected. At this time,
 severe storms can't be ruled out this weekend and into next week.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
702 PM CDT Tue May 14 2019

KSZ102-150030-
Doniphan KS-
702 PM CDT Tue May 14 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL DONIPHAN COUNTY UNTIL 730
PM CDT...

At 702 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Troy, moving southeast at 15 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Wathena and Troy.

LAT...LON 3978 9519 3986 9511 3978 9494 3967 9507
TIME...MOT...LOC 0002Z 308DEG 11KT 3978 9510

Grana

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
706 PM CDT Tue May 14 2019

MOZ013-150030-
De Kalb MO-
706 PM CDT Tue May 14 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN DEKALB COUNTY UNTIL
730 PM CDT...

At 706 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Maysville, moving southeast at 10 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Amity and Fairport.

LAT...LON 3995 9453 4001 9448 4000 9430 3984 9443
TIME...MOT...LOC 0006Z 297DEG 10KT 3995 9446

Grana

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
712 PM CDT Tue May 14 2019

MOZ022-023-031-150045-
Carroll MO-Livingston MO-Caldwell MO-
712 PM CDT Tue May 14 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN CARROLL...EAST
CENTRAL CALDWELL AND SOUTHWESTERN LIVINGSTON COUNTIES UNTIL 745 PM
CDT...

At 712 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Braymer, or 14 miles southwest of Chillicothe, moving southeast at 20
mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Ludlow and Dawn.

LAT...LON 3964 9380 3971 9374 3962 9350 3949 9365
TIME...MOT...LOC 0012Z 305DEG 16KT 3963 9372

Grana

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
723 PM CDT Tue May 14 2019

MOZ005-014>016-023-024-150115-
Grundy MO-Daviess MO-Livingston MO-Linn MO-Harrison MO-Sullivan MO-
723 PM CDT Tue May 14 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN DAVIESS...
NORTHWESTERN LINN...GRUNDY...SOUTHWESTERN SULLIVAN...SOUTHEASTERN
HARRISON AND NORTH CENTRAL LIVINGSTON COUNTIES UNTIL 815 PM CDT...

At 723 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Spickard to 6 miles southeast of Gilman
City. Movement was southeast at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Trenton, Gilman City, Spickard, Laredo, Tindall and Brimson.

LAT...LON 4004 9332 3988 9358 4013 9391 4026 9363
TIME...MOT...LOC 0023Z 305DEG 20KT 4019 9359 4009 9378

Grana

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
733 PM CDT Tue May 14 2019

KSZ102-MOZ011-150100-
Doniphan KS-Holt MO-
733 PM CDT Tue May 14 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN DONIPHAN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL HOLT COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM CDT...

At 732 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Forest City, or near Highland, moving southeast at 15 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Fanning.

LAT...LON 3992 9525 3997 9516 3989 9503 3981 9518
TIME...MOT...LOC 0032Z 323DEG 12KT 3992 9518

Grana