Severe Thunderstorm Warning 253, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
621 AM CDT Tue Aug 20 2019

.Discussion...
Issued at 415 AM CDT TUE AUG 20 2019

Satellite and radar imagery this morning show a subtle shortwave
trough zipping east across the northern Plains, with storms
developing in Iowa on the nose of the nocturnal jet; much like every
other night for the past several. CAMs are struggling with the early
morning convection, with the operational models looking to have the
better handle on the storm solutions. That said, expectations are
that the activity in Iowa will congeal through the early morning
hours, with an organized cold pool pushing stormy activity southeast
from Iowa across north central and eastern Missouri this morning.
However, if the cold pool does not get organized, then storms will
likely stay north of the Missouri border, which will need
monitoring owing to how that would effect temperatures later
today. Otherwise, some of the early morning storms may be a bit
strong, with gusty winds and torrential rain owing to the strong
instability aloft. Any storms that wander south will take the edge
off the heat across areas from north central to central Missouri
this morning, but there is enough time in the day for temperatures
to recover; so expect a hot and steamy afternoon either way, and
thus will leave the Heat Advisory as is.

For tonight into Wednesday morning...we will be watching as a more
significant trough axis swings into the northern Plains. This will
have the duel effect of focusing tonight's nocturnal jet across
southern Nebraska and Iowa, while also inducing a more meridional
flow across the northern Plains. Expect the nocturnal jet to spark
storms across southern Nebraska and Iowa early Wednesday morning,
spreading southeast as the cold pool develops and interacts with
the nocturnal jet. This will also likely result in a weak frontal
boundary, and/or effective front from the storms cold pool, laying
out across northern Missouri on the southern edge of a surface
high that will be rolling across the northern Plains in response
to the more meridional flow. Expect much of this activity to stay
north of the Missouri border till almost sunrise Wednesday
morning. What storms do make it into northern Missouri will
likely include a decent chance of large hail, damaging winds, and
torrential rain.

Rest of Wednesday...will see the potential for storms to hang around
as a whatever-kind-of-boundary wallows across northern Missouri. As
a result, many models advertise ongoing showers and thunderstorms
through the day Wednesday; but forecast thoughts are that models are
over doing the precipitation potential during the day, converting
what is likely going to be cloud cover into storms. Better chance
for storms looks to arrive Wednesday night into Thursday morning as
the nocturnal jet, on the south side of the trough axis swinging
into the northern Plains, focusing across eastern Kansas and
western Missouri. Will need to keep an eye out for late night
severe potential as these storms will have plenty of instability
to pull form aloft, and might have some organizing shear around
any weak boundaries.

For the rest of the work week, of note will be the cooler
temperatures that will prevail staring Wednesday, with many
locations across northern Missouri likely to see afternoon highs
stay in the 70s Thursday through Saturday. There will be a small
ongoing chance for more storms, but next widespread chance for
storms does not return until next work week.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 621 AM CDT TUE AUG 20 2019

VFR conditions will prevail at the state line terminals through
the day, and likely all night tonight. Storms in Iowa this
morning will continue to slide southeast, thus not approaching the
terminals. However, we will want to watch the early morning hours
of Wednesday, as storms may enter northern Missouri, possibly
effecting the KSTJ terminal at the end of this TAF cycle.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for KSZ025-057-060-102>105.

MO...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for MOZ011-020-021-028>030-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

Discussion...Cutter
Aviation...Cutter

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
524 AM CDT Tue Aug 20 2019

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-211030-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
524 AM CDT Tue Aug 20 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Very hot and humid conditions are expected this afternoon, with
dangerous heat indices developing.

Thunderstorms are expected this morning across northeast Missouri, a
few may be severe with strong winds.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Periodic chances for thunderstorms will continue Wednesday morning
through Thursday. A few of these storms may be strong to occasionally
severe.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1040 AM CDT Tue Aug 20 2019

MOZ017-025-201615-
Macon MO-Adair MO-
1040 AM CDT Tue Aug 20 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN ADAIR AND
NORTHEASTERN MACON COUNTIES UNTIL 1115 AM CDT...

At 1039 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
La Plata, moving east at 40 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
La Plata, Gibbs, Millard and Kirksville Regional.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 300 PM CDT for
north central and northeastern Missouri.

LAT...LON 3999 9269 4014 9256 4008 9234 3995 9235
      3995 9229 3993 9228 3986 9229 3987 9231
TIME...MOT...LOC 1539Z 291DEG 33KT 3999 9241

Pietrycha

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1110 AM CDT Tue Aug 20 2019

MOZ011-012-201645-
Holt MO-Andrew MO-
1110 AM CDT Tue Aug 20 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN HOLT AND SOUTHERN
ANDREW COUNTIES UNTIL 1145 AM CDT...

At 1109 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Amazonia, or 7 miles west of Savannah, moving southeast at 30 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Savannah, Country Club Villa, Country Club, Amazonia, Fillmore, Cosby
and Helena.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 29 between mile markers 52 and 68.
 Interstate 229 between mile markers 11 and 14.

LAT...LON 4003 9501 3998 9461 3982 9460 3982 9485
      3985 9494 3986 9494 3988 9493 3990 9495
      3990 9502 3988 9503 3989 9507
TIME...MOT...LOC 1609Z 293DEG 25KT 3993 9497

Pietrycha

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1140 AM CDT Tue Aug 20 2019

KSZ102-MOZ011-012-201715-
Doniphan KS-Holt MO-Andrew MO-
1140 AM CDT Tue Aug 20 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL DONIPHAN...
SOUTHEASTERN HOLT AND SOUTHWESTERN ANDREW COUNTIES UNTIL 1215 PM
CDT...

At 1140 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Oregon, or 10 miles northeast of Highland, moving southeast at 25
mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Savannah, Oregon, Amazonia and Forest City.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 29 between mile markers 57 and 78.
 Interstate 229 between mile markers 12 and 14.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3998 9529 4007 9518 3998 9482 3982 9487
TIME...MOT...LOC 1640Z 300DEG 20KT 3996 9512

Pietrycha

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1215 PM CDT Tue Aug 20 2019

KSZ102-MOZ011-012-020-201745-
Doniphan KS-Buchanan MO-Holt MO-Andrew MO-
1215 PM CDT Tue Aug 20 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL DONIPHAN...
NORTHEASTERN BUCHANAN...SOUTHEASTERN HOLT AND SOUTHERN ANDREW
COUNTIES UNTIL 1245 PM CDT...

At 1215 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Troy, moving southeast at 40 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
St. Joseph, Savannah, Elwood, Country Club Villa, Country Club,
Amazonia, Cosby, Helena and Fanning.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 29 between mile markers 46 and 70.
 Interstate 229 between mile markers 6 and 14.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3984 9523 4001 9511 3991 9461 3973 9472
TIME...MOT...LOC 1715Z 303DEG 35KT 3986 9510

Pietrycha

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1220 PM CDT TUE AUG 20 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1145 AM     HAIL             FOREST CITY             39.98N 95.20W
08/20/2019  E1.25 INCH       HOLT               MO   PUBLIC

&&