Severe Thunderstorm Warning 24, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
333 PM CDT Mon May 6 2019

.Discussion...
Issued at 333 PM CDT MON MAY 6 2019

A stationary front extends from southwest KS east-northeastward into
northeast MO. This front is sitting right on top of the KC metro.  A
cluster of storms has developed in south central NE/north central
KS, north of the front, in elevated CAPE. Strong effective shear
north of the front has lead to occasional severe storms in this
cluster and may help this area survive into northwestern/western MO/
northeastern/ east central KS early this evening. There is some
potential for this area of storms, as it moves closer to the
front and possibly crossing it into the better instability, to
become severe. Forecast CAPE south of the front in eastern KS and
western MO may be as high as 2000 J/kg with favorable shear. So
can't rule out some severe storms from this cluster with large
hail and damaging winds. 20Z special sounding from TOP shows very
steep low level lapse rates showing potential for the damaging
winds.

For late this evening and overnight, there remains some uncertainty
with where the warm sector MCS my initiate. It's likely that with
subtle mid-upper level features, and strong moisture convergence in
central KS, that this area will be the one to watch for new
convective initiation. The forecast for the overnight is largely
based on this notion. Given this, the trend has been to shift PoPs
and the heavy QPF southward for tonight. Going through the night the
severe weather threat will diminish but the flash flooding threat
will increase. Flash flood guidance is between 1.5 and 2.5 inches
for the 1 to 3 hour time frame. While QPF falls short of this at
about an inch in 6 hours overnight, there will be embedded areas of
2 to possibly 3 inches. Because of the uncertainty in the forecast,
this cant really be depicted with confidence. But rain rates greater
than 1.5"/hr would likely lead to flash flooding. Given this, the
flash flood watch looks on target.

This wet pattern will continue Tuesday - Wednesday. Several rounds
of severe are possible through this period of time as well. What
happens on Tuesday is going to be largely dependent upon what
happens tonight/tomorrow morning. The MCS could push the front south
of the area, keep the forecast area in the colder air. But it's
possible the front may remain in our south with strong CAPE built up
in our south. Convergence along the front would initiate new
convection. With shear in the 30-40kt range there is some potential
for these storms to become severe. The better, or more widespread
severe potential, looks to be on Wednesday. This will depend on how
far north the front lifts, but models have been trending northward
for several runs. The GFS has much of the area in the warm sector,
ahead of the the shortwave trough. The NAM is faster with the
shortwave and as a result moves the cold front through the area
earlier the day, limiting our severe potential and keeping to our
east.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT MON MAY 6 2019

VFR conditions this afternoon will worsen overnight as a complex
of thunderstorms develops and moves through the region. There
still a fair amount of uncertainty with where the thunderstorm
complex will develop and eventually move through. But the trend
has been to develop it in south central to east central KS and
track it to the east southeast overnight. This would mainly impact
the southern portion of the KC metro. But there is potential for
storms further north given the uncertainty with the origin area of
the storms. Once the complex pushes southeast of the area, low
MVFR to IFR ceilings should develop and spread over the area
through tomorrow morning.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Flash Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through late
     Wednesday night for KSZ025-057-060-102>105.

MO...Flash Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through late
     Wednesday night for MOZ020-021-028>031-037>040-043>046-053-
     054.

&&

Discussion...CDB
Aviation...CDB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
530 AM CDT Mon May 6 2019

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-071030-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
530 AM CDT Mon May 6 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

 Storms are expected to develop across eastern Kansas this afternoon
 and both move and develop eastward this evening and tonight. These
 storms could produce large hail, damaging winds, and an isolated
 tornado or two.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

 Periods of showers and thunderstorms are expected this week. Storms
 could be strong Tuesday and severe Wednesday, and heavy rain could
 lead to both river flooding and areas of flash flooding.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
751 PM CDT MON MAY 6 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0740 PM     TSTM WND GST     LAWSON                  39.44N 94.20W
05/06/2019  E50 MPH          RAY                MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER REPORTS A FEW SMALL TREE LIMBS DOWN,
            AS WELL.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
759 PM CDT Mon May 6 2019

MOZ022-029>031-037-038-070130-
Ray MO-Carroll MO-Lafayette MO-Jackson MO-Caldwell MO-Clay MO-
759 PM CDT Mon May 6 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN CLAY...RAY...WESTERN
CARROLL...SOUTHEASTERN CALDWELL...NORTHWESTERN LAFAYETTE AND
NORTHEASTERN JACKSON COUNTIES UNTIL 830 PM CDT...

At 759 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Kingston to 6 miles east of Woods Heights
to near Lake Tapawingo. Movement was east at 45 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Independence, Blue Springs, Excelsior Springs, Richmond, Odessa,
Lexington, Sugar Creek, Buckner, Courtney, Braymer, Orrick,
Wellington, Norborne, Polo, Hardin, Henrietta, Crystal Lakes, Sibley,
Kingston and Missouri City.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for
west central Missouri.

LAT...LON 3957 9358 3928 9366 3901 9398 3909 9447
      3936 9418 3964 9407
TIME...MOT...LOC 0059Z 283DEG 39KT 3964 9400 3935 9405 3907 9433

Welsh

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
826 PM CDT MON MAY 6 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0810 PM     HAIL             6 WSW OSAWATOMIE        38.47N 95.05W
05/06/2019  E1.00 INCH       MIAMI              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
840 PM CDT MON MAY 6 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0815 PM     HAIL             3 S OSAWATOMIE          38.46N 94.96W
05/06/2019  E1.75 INCH       MIAMI              KS   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
902 PM CDT MON MAY 6 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SE LANSING            39.22N 94.85W
05/06/2019                   LEAVENWORTH        KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTS 24 DIAMETER
            TREE DOWN ACROSS 119TH STREET AND KS HWY 5.

&&

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