Severe Thunderstorm Warning 22, NWS Kansas City, MO

158 
WWUS53 KEAX 060054
SVSEAX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
754 PM CDT Sun May 5 2019

MOC005-087-060103-
/O.EXP.KEAX.SV.W.0022.000000T0000Z-190506T0100Z/
Atchison MO-Holt MO-
754 PM CDT Sun May 5 2019

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR ATCHISON AND NORTHWESTERN HOLT
COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 800 PM CDT...
            
The storms which prompted the warning have weakened below severe
limits, and no longer pose an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  However gusty
winds are still possible with these thunderstorms.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for
northwestern Missouri.

LAT...LON 4058 9577 4058 9529 4022 9533 4017 9547
      4019 9548 4024 9547 4026 9555 4030 9556
      4031 9566 4034 9562 4041 9566 4046 9564
      4048 9570 4054 9565 4056 9568 4052 9571
      4052 9575
TIME...MOT...LOC 0053Z 298DEG 30KT 4048 9542 4031 9542 4017 9557 

$$

Blair

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
629 PM CDT Sun May 5 2019

.Discussion...
Issued at 312 PM CDT SUN MAY 5 2019

Main concern with this forecast is the potential for heavy rain
leading to potential flash flooding as well as new river
flooding and/or exacerbating ongoing river flooding.
Additionally, there is potential for severe weather.

Tonight:

A cold front is draped from central NE eastward into northern IA.
Thunderstorms have developed along/behind that front. Individual
storm motions are to the east. As their cold pool develops and
evolves this evening/overnight, a southward motion will take over.
Overall, convection allowing models have backed off or slowed
down the southward progression of an MCS that may move into
northern MO this evening and overnight. None-the-less, this
remains a possibility so kept PoPs in the forecast for our north.

The other item is the potential for storms to develop tonight in
southern to central KS and then move east into eastern KS and
western MO. Depending on where this area develops, the eastward
motion would bring storms to either east central KS/west central MO
area or into southeastern KS/southwestern MO. Have maintained PoPs
and expanded them eastward to capture this potential.

Monday:

A front will be draped across the area by Monday afternoon,
most likely in the vicinity of or just north of the I-70 corridor.
Dewpoints will likely climb into the low to mid 60 degree range
south of the front. Precipitable water values will likely climb to
around 1.25" along the front. North of the front there should be
substantial cloud cover. But in the vicinity of the front and
southward, clouds should be thinner and with the high dewpoints and
decent heating, there should be ample CAPE to develop. Forecast
soundings suggest around 2500 J/kg along and south of the front.
Thunderstorms may not develop until later in the afternoon or early
in the evening though when a subtle mid-level shortwave moves into
the area. With relatively steep mid-level lapse rates the initial
cells could produce large hail. As the initial storms grow into a
MCS, they should move southward with time. As this occurs, the main
threat will transition into heavy rain. This should be confined to
areas along and south of the Highway 50 corridor. It's possible that
some locations could see 4+ inches of rain with this MCS. But
confidence is not very high regarding the exact location of the
heaviest rain. So have broadened out the heaviest rain which also
result in lowering QPF amounts.

Tuesday - Wednesday:

Tuesday continues to look like the relative lull between active
days. The Monday night early Tuesday MCS will help push the front
south of the area with cooler temperatures over the area.

Wednesday Continues to look like there is good potential for severe
weather and additional heavy rain. An upper-level trough will move
out of the southwest into the southern and central Plains. The
trough may weaken as it moves east but there may be enough of a
response in the low to mid-level wind fields to help push the front
back north into northern MO. This puts most of the area in the warm
sector. There will be potentially 2000 to 2500 J/kg of CAPE with 30
to 40 kts of 0-6km shear. Precipitable water values may be as high
1.5". Forecast soundings suggest steep mid-level lapse rates by the
afternoon. So there is potential for severe storms during the
afternoon with large hail that will transition into another heavy
rain event overnight as the main upper trough moves over the area.
Once that trough moves through, the associated cold front will
quickly push through the region and quickly end precipitation
chances.

Thursday - Sunday:

Cooler air will move into the area as high pressure builds south.
This will result in cooler and drier conditions heading into the
weekend.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 629 PM CDT SUN MAY 5 2019

VFR conditions will continue through 06/06Z. Currently,
thunderstorm activity continues to develop across southeast
Nebraska and eastern Kansas. Short term guidance not in complete
agreement and confidence is not high on development and timing of
thunderstorms after 06Z. MVFR ceilings, with isolated areas of IFR
ceilings, will persist for much of tomorrow with a second round
of convection tomorrow afternoon. Winds will remain from the south
tonight and into the morning hours and shift from the east near
10kts late in the forecast period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

Discussion...CDB
Aviation...Kurtz/Otto

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
510 AM CDT Sun May 5 2019

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-061015-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
510 AM CDT Sun May 5 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

 Storms are expected to develop across southeast Nebraska this
 evening and move south southeast tonight. These storms could be
 initially strong to severe across northeast KS and far northwest
 MO, but will weaken as they move into the remainder of the outlook
 area.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

 Periods of showers and thunderstorms are expected this week. Storms
 could be strong to severe Monday and Wednesday, and heavy rain could
 lead to both river flooding and areas of flash flooding.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo