Severe Thunderstorm Warning 211, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
634 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2019

.Discussion...
Issued at 411 AM CDT WED JUL 10 2019

Today's primary forecast challenge will be timing of approaching
cold front through eastern Kansas/Missouri and when/where
convection will develop, if at all, before the front exits
forecast area. Currently, the cold front is situated over central
Iowa and extends southeast to Omaha and along the Kansas/Nebraska
border. HRRR is fairly quiet as scattered convection develops near
21Z over the southern edge of the CWA. Meanwhile the NAM NEST is
a bit slower and more aggressive with showers and thunderstorms.
Decided to lean towards the HRRR solution as upper level support
is somewhat limited and timing of the cold front appears better.
Unfortunately for folks in the southern most counties, cooler and
drier air will not arrive until early evening. With temperatures
expected to reach the low 90s and heat indices reaching 100-105F,
a Heat Advisory is valid for counties along the southern border
of the CWA from 10/17Z to 11/00Z.

Welcome cooler temperatures arrive for Thursday and Friday,
especially during the morning hours as lows will reach the low to
middle 60s. Temperatures rebound quickly for the weekend and into
the beginning of the work week as mid/upper level ridging build
back into the area and highs reach the low to mid 90s. There is a
possible wild card in the extended forecast. A developing tropical
system in the northern Gulf of Mexico is expected to move on
shore along the Louisiana coastline by Saturday and the head due
north...possibly increasing precipitation chances for Arkansas
and Missouri. However, tropical systems are known to be fickle,
and the forecast is sure to change and evolve in the coming days.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 633 AM CDT WED JUL 10 2019

Area of thunderstorms over NE Kansas and SE Nebraska are refusing
to weaken this morning as they move into E Kansas. However,
latest radar returns are hinting at these storms are beginning to
slowly weaken. Expect latest trend to continue, but cannot rule
out the possibility of thunderstorms making it to the
Kansas/Missouri border for a couple of hours before dissipating.
Winds are currently light and variable and will shift from the NW
by mid morning 6-8 kt as a cold front pushes through all TAF
locations. VFR conditions will continue for the next 24 hrs.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for
     KSZ060.

MO...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for
     MOZ040-045-046-053-054.

&&

Discussion...Kurtz/Otto
Aviation...Kurtz/Otto

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
459 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2019

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-111000-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
459 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

.Thunderstorms...
Scattered thunderstorms will develop along the frontal boundary as it
pushes into central and southern Missouri mid to late this afternoon.
A few storms may be strong to severe. Wind and heavy downpours are
the primary concerns, along with a low risk of damaging hail.

.Heat...
High temperatures will reach the lower 90s ahead of the cold front in
central and southern Missouri. Paired with high humidity, heat index
values will approach 100 to 105 degrees in the late afternoon in
central and southern Missouri. A heat advisory is in effect for much
of central, eastern, and southern Missouri and southeastern Kansas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo