Severe Thunderstorm Warning 140, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
245 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2019

.Discussion...
Issued at 245 PM CDT WED JUN 5 2019

A weak boundary has moved into northern Missouri this afternoon.
Satellite imagery shows cumulus converging in our northern couple of
tiers of counties. As of 19Z, cumulus is becoming congested and
taller. Thunderstorms are expected develop in northern Missouri in
this convergence zone. There is a strip of marginally supportive
shear in this area so there may be some severe storms as well.
Regardless, very high CAPE will be supportive of large hail and
damaging winds. The hail threat should be mainly with the initial
strong updrafts. Damaging winds will become the main threat, either
from microbursts, or as storms congeal into a line or two and
produce straight-line winds. Storms should generally drift south-
southeastward with time as 1) the front moves southward, and 2) any
cold pool forces new development south-southeastward. Storms may
persist into the evening hours, especially if any cold pool
organization can occur and build southward with time.

More isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected tomorrow,
mainly across the southern half of the forecast area. Forecast
soundings show a very unstable airmass over the region. Again, shear
will be weak so we'll be looking at mesoscale driven features to key
in on. Storms may linger well into the evening hours, like today,
especially if any strong cold pool is established and storms develop
on the leading edge of the colder air.

For Friday and through the weekend, the upper low that has been
sitting over the southwestern US will move eastward and spread
rain/storms over the southern Plains and southern Missouri. This may
spread into spread into the southern portions of the forecast area
Friday. By Saturday, that upper system will have moved far enough
way that the chances for precipitation will decrease. Sunday looks
dry for most, if not all, of the forecast area. Temperatures will be
cooler through the weekend as cooler air settles into the region on
the backside of the upper low with a ridge of high pressure nosing
into the region.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1202 PM CDT WED JUN 5 2019

A weak boundary moving into the area may trigger isolated to
scattered thunderstorms. These may persist into the evening hours
for several hours after sunset depending on how strong/organized
any cold pool is from them. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions with
light winds through the forecast.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

Discussion...CDB
Aviation...CDB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
420 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2019

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-060930-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
420 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

 Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop across
 the area this afternoon into the evening. Strong wind gusts and
 large hail are possible where storms do develop, though coverage
 will generally be isolated, with the exception of central to
 eastern Missouri. Heavy rainfall is likely within storms and
 localized flash flooding is possible.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

 Additional heavy rainfall is expected off and on throughout the
 week, and flash flooding remains a concern through Saturday.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
522 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2019

MOZ002-004-012-052315-
Gentry MO-Nodaway MO-Andrew MO-
522 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR GENTRY...SOUTHEASTERN NODAWAY AND
NORTHEASTERN ANDREW COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM CDT...

At 522 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles northeast of Fillmore, or 11 miles north of Savannah, moving
east at 5 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Savannah, Albany, Stanberry, King City, Barnard, Conception Junction,
Bolckow, Rosendale, Darlington, Mcfall, Guilford, Clyde, Gentry,
Arkoe, Rea, Conception and Ford City.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
north central and northwestern Missouri.

LAT...LON 4030 9421 4007 9422 4005 9460 3994 9482
      4015 9500 4032 9473 4039 9423 4038 9422
TIME...MOT...LOC 2222Z 289DEG 6KT 4011 9484

PP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
529 PM CDT WED JUN 5 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0524 PM     HAIL             1 NE TRENTON            40.09N 93.61W
06/05/2019  E0.70 INCH       GRUNDY             MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&