Severe Thunderstorm Warning 110, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
325 PM CDT Tue May 28 2019

.Discussion...
Issued at 324 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2019

The main concern with this forecast continues to be the potential
for severe weather, with large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes
possible, and flash flooding likely.

Early in the day and ongoing convection has added a bit of a wrench
into the outlook for this afternoon. The storms that moved across
northern MO earlier today helped reinforce an existing boundary
and also lay down a new boundary in our northeastern zones.
Synoptically, a stationary front is draped along the Missouri
River valley. This front was likely reinforced by the outflow and
the colder post- storm airmass in northern MO. As a result, we
have temperatures ranging from the lower 60s in northern MO to
the upper 70s in our southern zones. These warm temperatures are
in spite of thick low to mid-level cloud coverage. Models seem to
be resolving the low clouds well and the 18Z KTOP sounding shows
that there is minimal inhibition in the warm sector. Forecast
soundings show this as well and the end result of the low clouds
is to basically weaken low level lapse rates. Above this layer,
steep lapse rates exist. Given the steep mid-level lapse rates,
large hail is expected with any storm throughout the forecast
area. The weaker low level lapse rates may limit the damaging
wind potential. The tornado risk will remain and will likely
increase as stronger low-level flow moves over the region. This
will enhance the low-level helicity values after 22/23Z.
Additionally, if any storm is able to move along the boundary, the
tornado risk will increase significantly. The problem is that the
boundary is oriented west to east and right moving supercell
motion is northeast. It's not out of the question but there's a
stronger possibility of storms crossing the boundary and briefly
interacting with it than anchoring to it.

For the flash flood potential, the underlying conditions are
obviously saturated with most rivers in flood across the forecast
area. Flash flood guidance is very low and any new convection
exacerbates the ongoing issues. Earlier today, storms that moved
through the northeastern portions of the forecast area produced over
2 inches of rain in a short period of time. This a a testament to
the very high precipitable water values in excess of 1.6" across
the area and overspreading the warm front. So storms that are
north of the front will still be capable of very heavy rainfall.
In fact, north of the front should see the most widespread
rainfall, another 1 to 2 inches expected from this afternoon
through tonight. There will likely be pockets of heavier rain,
depending on where storms track and whether they train or not.
Rain should move east of the area tomorrow morning. There may be
some lingering showers/storms after 12Z tomorrow but the heaviest
rains will have moved away. So the flash flood watch ending at 12Z
looks good for now. The only change was to add a county of rows
southward.

For Wednesday into Wednesday night, the Tuesday/Tuesday night
convection will help push the front south of the forecast area.
There may be some showers/storms in our far southern area, but it
looks like the heaviest rain will stay south of our area. Finger
crossed, we can start to dry out, at least for a few days.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2019

An active weather scenario is expected to evolve this afternoon/
evening. First, an initial round of storms moving into
northeastern KS will move into northwestern MO early this
afternoon. This round should stay north of the KC terminals and
just impact KSTJ. Another round of storms should move through late
this afternoon to this evening. This round looks like it would be
severe and affect all the terminals. After storms move through,
MVFR ceilings are possible overnight into tomorrow morning.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Flash Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for KSZ102.

MO...Flash Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for MOZ001>008-
     011>017-020>025-032-033.

&&

Discussion...CDB
Aviation...CDB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
429 AM CDT Tue May 28 2019

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-290930-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
429 AM CDT Tue May 28 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

 Widespread severe storms are possible this afternoon and evening.
 Hazards include strong to damaging winds, large hail, and a few
 possible tornadoes. Flash flooding is possible tonight into
 Wednesday morning.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

 Storms capable of producing large hail and strong wind gusts are
 possible Wednesday afternoon and evening before dry conditions
 return to the area late Wednesday.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
409 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 WSW CAINSVILLE        40.42N 93.82W
05/28/2019  E60 MPH          HARRISON           MO   911 CALL CENTER

            DELAYED REPORT.

&&

SGA

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
453 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0425 PM     HAIL             NEW HAMPTON             40.27N 94.19W
05/28/2019  M0.70 INCH       HARRISON           MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MMS