River Flood Warning 341, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
256 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2019

.Discussion...
Issued at 256 PM CDT FRI AUG 30 2019

A well defined MCV moving through central MO will continue to
slowly track to the east, with precipitation chances slowly moving
east with it. Overnight, quiet weather conditions are expected.
Low clouds are still expected to redevelop over the area and/or
advect northward overnight into tomorrow morning. Another MCS
should develop in western KS this evening and overnight and may be
in eastern KS around daybreak. It seems more likely that this
system would track southwest of the forecast area so have really
lowered PoPs from tonight through tomorrow. Can't rule out some
light showers though so have kept some mention going. For Saturday
night into Sunday morning, most models show dry weather in the
forecast area as high pressure builds into the region. But there
may be another MCS track southwest of the area with a small chance
for showers building northward. Have again lowered PoPs for this
period to account for the shift in thinking. What's starting to
look more possible is widespread fog. With the high pressure ridge
nosing into the area, winds should be light. With the ample
ground moisture and cooler temperatures overnight, it seems like a
good setup for fog. The main uncertainty is whether we see low
stratus or fog, or some combination of both with thick low stratus
reducing how thick the fog ultimately gets.

For next week, Labor Day looks dry as we remain influenced by the
surface high. We should also warmer temperatures with lower cloud
coverage and winds turning to the south. The hot temperatures should
stay west of the area where deeper mixing may allow highs to climb
90s. Another front will move into the area Tuesday night into
Wednesday, bringing another chance for rain to the area. Behind that
front, cooler temperatures spread back into the area for the rest of
next work week.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1116 AM CDT FRI AUG 30 2019

A mix of MVFR and VFR ceilings will persist this afternoon.
Conditions should trend to VFR later this afternoon. But this will
be short-lived as low-level moisture returns northward in the form
of low MVFR to IFR ceilings. Some minor visibility restrictions
are also possible. Once ceilings lower overnight, they should
persist low through the end of the forecast.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

Discussion...CDB
Aviation...CDB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
534 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2019

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-311045-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
534 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

 Showers and thunderstorms anticipated today. Minor flooding
possible. No severe weather is expected.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Thunderstorms possible Saturday and Saturday night. Severe weather is
not expected with this activity at this time.

More detailed information can be accessed at...
https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo