River Flood Warning 283, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
559 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2019

.Discussion...
Issued at 258 AM CDT FRI JUL 5 2019

Primary forecast focus is on this morning's ongoing convection.

Currently, the area of thunderstorms continues to slowly move south
and southeast, with redevelopment continuing to the west and
northwest along a frontal boundary, stalled, from west central
Missouri into south central Nebraska.

Significant rainfall, over 5 to 6 inches fell across portions of the
southeastern KC Metro and to the east and southeast Thursday
evening/night. Numerous reports of significant street flooding and
closed roads have been reported. An MCV developed earlier yesterday
evening, and has helped in advancing thunderstorms to the south and
southeast. Through 2 AM, it has shifted to the east of Warrensburg,
continuing a steady easterly track. To the west and northeast, a
stout low level jet continues to provide ample moisture into the
stalled boundary, resulting in, for a lack of a better phrase, a
convective mess from Nebraska to Missouri. With a lack of strong
synoptic forcing, model guidance will continue to struggle with
convective evolution through the morning and through the day.
Persistence forecasting will be the general rule in the short range.

Observing surface analysis, radar and satellite trends, expect the
ongoing convection south of Clinton to Sedalia, to continue to churn
east and south. Activity to the west and northwest is the big
question mark. Current thoughts are for this convection to persist
through daybreak and through the day, across Kansas and into
portions of western Missouri. These storms will remain scattered but
pose concerns of brief, heavy, rainfall. Off the available
guidance, the RAP has performed the best, and agrees with this
assessment.

This afternoon, confidence remains low in convective evolution, much
will depend on ongoing convection (if any) across western
Missouri/eastern Kansas. With a slight build of the broad 500mb
ridge, we could see some semblance of an MCS dropping south out of
Nebraska into eastern Kansas through the afternoon, clipping western
Missouri. If this occurs, it will increase concerns of flash
flooding across portions of the area later today. Ample MUCAPE and
north/northwesterly 0-3KM shear, and complementary Corfidi vectors,
suggest it would dive south through 3 or 6 PM in eastern Kansas.

For the weekend, with the midwest stuck under the broad ridge,
shower and thunderstorm chances will persist Saturday and Sunday as
weak short waves and lingering frontal boundaries subsist with ample
moisture return from the gulf. Precipitable water values will hold
in the a few tenths below 2.00 inches through the weekend, which is
at the 90th percentile for the time of year. Unfortunately, this
pattern will be tough to shake, with daily chances for scattered
showers and thunderstorms through mid-next week.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 558 AM CDT FRI JUL 5 2019

Busy aviation period ahead. MVFR visibilities and ceilings will
continue to impact area airfield operations through the morning.
Scattered shower and thunder chances will exist at various times
through the day. However, confidence in location, duration, and
intensity is very low at this time to definitively mention it in
the TAFs. Late in the period, better chances for scattered showers
and thunderstorms warrants a mention of VCTS.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

Discussion...Kurtz
Aviation...Kurtz

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
450 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2019

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-051000-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

 Scattered storms are expected today with brief periods of heavy
rain. Severe weather chances are limited, but localized strong wind
gusts and small hail are possible.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

 Scattered storm chances continue through the weekend and into the
beginning of the work week.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

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