River Flood Warning 197, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
630 AM CDT Tue May 21 2019

.Discussion...
Issued at 415 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2019

Main forecast concerns remain focused on the first 24 hours, due to
ongoing flooding and the potential for severe weather.

Satellite imagery this morning shows a potent trough digging into
the Desert Southwest, inducing a southwest flow across the Southern
and Central Plains, with a secondary shortwave following it from the
eastern Pacific across the Pacific Northwest. The resulting
southwest flow from the Desert Southwest trough allowed showers and
thunderstorms, that developed early Monday morning across Texas, to
quickly reach eastern Kansas and Missouri late Monday afternoon; and
this same flow has continued to fuel storms across eastern Kansas
and Missouri all night. With precipitable water values at 00Z
already around 1.25 to 1.5 inches, storms that have been moving
through overnight have been highly efficient rain makers; and that
does not look to change at all today. Additionally, looks like we
got a bit of a wake low early this morning as stratiform rain
started to ease up on the north side of the rain shield, with a high
winds noted from the east around 2 to 3 AM.

For today...the upper level shortwave trough pivoting through the
base of the broader synoptic level Desert Southwest trough will
quickly slide northeast today as the secondary shortwave slides into
the Great Basin. The resulting buckling in the jet stream from this
upper level pattern adjustment is taking the edge off the
precipitation early this morning in eastern Kansas and Missouri, but
we are already seeing a more north-south oriented line of robust
storms developing and moving northeast across Oklahoma in response.
And, it is this line of storms in Oklahoma that we will be watching
with great concern today.

Early morning timing of the storms moving across Oklahoma has them
reaching the Kansas-Missouri border around 7 to 8AM. Rainfall rates
between 1 and 3 inches an hour are expected from that line of
storms; which when combined with the amount of water that has
already fallen will lead to more flooding across the region. Have
shifted the Flash Flood Watch to reflect where we have gotten the
heavy rain overnight, and expect more heavy rain today. Thus,
trimmed the watch from the northwest to north central section of
Missouri as those areas didn't pick up the higher end rainfall
amounts, and moved to include central Missouri where they picked
up significant rain overnight.

As for the severe potential today, we will need to watch out as
there remains a decent potential for some strong to severe storms to
develop; especially late this morning into the afternoon hours.
Expectation for the line moving northeast into Kansas-Missouri
border, is that it will arrive with torrential rainfall rates, maybe
a bit of hail, and strong gusty winds as the low jet mixes down.
Locally near the Kansas-Missouri border, instability is almost non-
existent due to the working over the atmosphere has gotten from the
overnight storms; but as the line of storms continues to move
northeast this morning it should find better instability as it moves
into central and north central to northeast Missouri later this
morning; with large hail, damaging winds, flash flooding, and an
isolated tornado threat all being possible through the late
afternoon hours. Expect storms to exit to the northeast this
afternoon, but we might want to keep an eye on the northwest
corner of Missouri as the cold core of the upper level shortwave
will be pivoting across during the evening hours.

Otherwise, looks like we will see a bit of dry weather for Tuesday
night into the day Wednesday, with warmer temperatures arriving, but
more rain is possible Wednesday night through the end of the work
week.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 630 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2019

IFR conditions are prevailing across the terminals this morning,
and may deteriorate some into the LIFR range some as a strong
line of thunderstorms moves through this morning. Thinking there
will be a break in the rain, with CIGs lifting a little late in
the morning. Expect CIGs to really lift this afternoon, but we
might also have a second round of storms by 22Z.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for KSZ025-057-060-
     103>105.

MO...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for MOZ007-008-013>017-
     020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

Discussion...Cutter
Aviation...Cutter

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
418 AM CDT Tue May 21 2019

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-220930-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
418 AM CDT Tue May 21 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Another round of thunderstorms are expected this morning into the
afternoon. Severe weather in the form of large hail, damaging winds,
and isolated tornadoes will be possible. Flash flooding will be
possible in the strongest activity.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Active weather will continue late in the workweek into the weekend as
additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms occur. River flooding
will be ongoing.

Blair

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