River Flood Warning 149, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
638 AM CDT Sat May 18 2019

.Discussion...
Issued at 350 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2019

Active weather likely today/tonight with threat for strong to severe
weather and localized flash flooding. As of early this morning, a
weak line of thunderstorms were generating along a thunderstorm
outflow boundary from northwest MO into central KS, aided by a 50kt
low-level jet. Most high-res model guidance has done a poor job
resolving this activity, minus the ARW/NMM. Current indications are
this activity will shift into the northwest half of the forecast
area through mid-morning. The trend has been a gradual lack of
organization/weakening as storms run ahead of strongest
forcing/instability and expect this trend to continue. The true cold
front will briefly become quasi-stationary over eastern Kansas by
mid/late morning in response to pressure falls to a developing low
pressure over south central Kansas. As the upper trough ejects into
the central Plains, rapid thunderstorm development is expected
between 11am-1pm over eastern Kansas into northern Missouri in
proximity to both the synoptic front and the ongoing outflow
boundary expected to be draped over the forecast area. This
widespread cluster of storms will develop/move into an area of
moderate instability (~2000 J/kg), and will have some strong to
severe weather potential, mainly in the form of large hail and
locally damaging winds. This activity is anticipated to overspread
much of the forecast area during the afternoon hours before exiting.
With steady movement of storms and the lack of saturated soils,
widespread flash flood should largely be avoided with this initial
round. One and three hour flash flood guidance is nearly 2"+ for most
areas, and should not exceed that in most locations. Models hint at
additional thunderstorms closer to the surface low, moving northeast
towards the forecast area during the evening hours. Severe weather
threat with this secondary round is highly uncertain due to the
degree of environmental recovery in the wake of the midday/early
afternoon convection. Will have to closely monitor the corridor of
heaviest rainfall that could potentially track/train over areas
earlier impacted for a flash flooding threat. All said in done, most
areas should receive 1.50-2" with locally higher rainfall amounts
between this morning into Saturday night.

Shortwave ridging and cold air advection will allow for a tranquil
and cool Sunday and Monday morning, with precipitation shifting east
of the area by late Sunday morning and highs in the middle 60s to
lower 70s both afternoons. This quiet weather will be short-lived as
an active weather pattern continues across the central CONUS with
another strong upper trough emerging into the Plains on Monday.
Elevated convection forming along/north of a warm front laid from SW
MO into SE KS is expected Monday night. The convection may also tend
to shrink/narrow the warm sector as the upper trough ejects into the
central Plains. The timing of the cold front passage is also a
little early - late AM into early afternoon. Therefore, the overall
severe weather threat remains in some question. Another heavy rain
event may also materialize with repeated convection, with 2-3 inches
possible across the western half of the forecast area. This would
certainly cause potential river and flash flooding issues.
Precipitation should clear the area around sunset Tuesday, with a
dry daytime Wednesday expected.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 628 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2019

VFR/MVFR conditions are expected to prevail. Thunderstorm outflow
has already or soon will result in a wind shift at terminals,
with a gradual return to southerly winds by mid/late AM. Scattered
rain will move over terminal space through mid morning before
pushing east/dissipating. Another round of thunderstorms is
expected by midday into the early afternoon for terminals. A final
round of showers will come through overnight, with a final wind
shift prior to sunrise Sunday. Robust activity will result in
deteriorating conditions to periodic IFR/MFVR.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

Discussion...Blair
Aviation...Blair

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
557 AM CDT Sat May 18 2019

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-191100-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
557 AM CDT Sat May 18 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

 An active weather pattern will begin today. A couple rounds of
 strong storms and heavy rainfall are expected today.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

 The active weather pattern will persist into next week with several
 rounds of storms with heavy rainfall expected Monday night through
 Tuesday.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo