River Flood Warning 117, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
639 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2019

.Discussion...
Issued at 319 PM CDT TUE APR 30 2019

Main concern for today is potential for heavy rain and flash
flooding with some remaining potential for severe weather.

For the rest of this afternoon and early this evening, the area
remains north of the warm front. That front seems to extend from
northeastern OK to the vicinity of Joplin, east-northeastward into
the St. Louis area. Persistent showers/storms north of the warm
front through central KS and along I-70 has helped reinforce cold
air and prevented the front from lifting further north. Convection
allowing models remain in decent agreement with the timing of a line
of storms that are currently moving into south central KS. Models
develop this into a line that looks to move into the are in the 23Z-
03Z time frame. Forecast soundings show some increase in instability
ahead of the line, though still only ranging from several hundred
J/kg to about 1400 J/kg in a north to south gradient. Deep layer
shear looks fairly weak. But 0-1 km and 0-3 km shear is stronger so
some gusty winds look possible. The bigger issue is the high
precipitable water values. PW values at 00Z tonight range from
around 1.5" to 1.75". Additionally, based on satellite layered
precipitable water, there is ample moisture in the low to middle
levels with decent moisture showing up in the upper levels too. With
this high moisture content in the atmosphere, it looks like as any
line of storms moves into the area, they produce very heavy
rainfall. Rain amounts from early this afternoon, in addition to the
storms moving through this evening and tomorrow, we may see another
1 to 2.5 inches on top of the rainfall observed overnight. Given the
ongoing threat for flash flooding, the flash flood watch will be
allowed to continue as is through Thursday morning.

For Wednesday into Thursday, models show the front in the southern
portions of the forecast area. Much stronger instability builds as a
result. We may be capped in the southern part of the forecast area
until late in the afternoon. Both the NAM and the GFS weaken the cap
late in the afternoon with convection developing as a result. The
monkey wrench here is how the ongoing convection may interfere with
the pattern the models are showing. More widespread/persistent
convection would limit severe potential. But if there some drying
out and/or clearing, new convection could be more widespread. So
we'll have to wait and see how things evolve.

By Thursday, it looks like the front will be well south of the area.
So the chances for precipitation should be limited to our far south.
Cooler temperatures should preclude any threat of severe weather.

For the remainder of the forecast, there will be spotty
shower/thunderstorm chances. As of now, the threat of anything
severe looks low. Temperatures look below normal Thursday and
Friday, with highs in the 60s. For the weekend into next week, highs
look closer to normal with temperatures in 70s.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 639 PM CDT TUE APR 30 2019

Rain and embedded thunderstorms continue to affect the state line
terminals this evening, with this activity expected to last into
the evening hours. Expect rain to end late tonight, but we may
end up with low CIGs early in the morning as a result. Otherwise,
left VCSH in at the end of the period as a hint at more storms
moving in Wednesday evening.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for KSZ025-057-060-
     103>105.

MO...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for MOZ008-013>017-
     020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

Discussion...CDB
Aviation...Cutter

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
409 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2019

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-010915-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
409 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

 Moderate to locally heavy rains are expected across the region this
 morning, and again later this afternoon. New rainfall accumulations
 of 1 to 3 inches will be possible through tonight under the
 heaviest activity. These rains will lead to an increasing flash
 flood threat across the region.

 Severe storms are also possible Tuesday afternoon, with large hail,
 damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes all being possible. The most
 likely locations for severe weather will be along and south of the
 Route 50 corridor.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

 Thunderstorms will remain possible Wednesday and Wednesday night.
 The main threats will be continued heavy rain chances along with
 isolated strong winds.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
806 PM CDT TUE APR 30 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     FLOOD            5 SE BEAGLE             38.37N 94.90W
04/30/2019                   LINN               KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WATER OVER THE ROAD SOUTH OF SUGAR CREEK
            ALONG KANSAS HIGHWAY 7.

&&

MMS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
811 PM CDT TUE APR 30 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 AM     FLOOD            2 W LA CYGNE            38.35N 94.80W
04/30/2019                   LINN               KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WATER OVER THE ROAD ALONG COUNTY ROAD 1095
            FROM 1150 ROAD TO 1850 ROAD.

&&

MMS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
819 PM CDT TUE APR 30 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0750 PM     HEAVY RAIN       3 W CENTERVIEW          38.74N 93.90W
04/30/2019  E3.62 INCH       JOHNSON            MO   NWS EMPLOYEE

            UPDATED STORM TOTAL AS OF 750 PM.

&&

PP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
843 PM CDT TUE APR 30 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0842 PM     FLASH FLOOD      4 W STANLEY             38.86N 94.74W
04/30/2019                   JOHNSON            KS   NWS EMPLOYEE

            PFLUMM RD CLOSED BETWEEN 143RD AND 151ST IN
            OLATHE.

&&

SGA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1004 PM CDT TUE APR 30 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 PM     HEAVY RAIN       3 W CENTERVIEW          38.74N 93.90W
04/30/2019  M4.09 INCH       JOHNSON            MO   NWS EMPLOYEE

            UPDATED STORM TOTAL AS OF 10 PM.

&&

PP