Flash Flood Watch 13, NWS Kansas City, MO

439 
WGUS63 KEAX 220810
FFAEAX

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
310 AM CDT Thu Aug 22 2019


KSZ025-057-060-103>105-MOZ028>031-037>040-043>046-053-054-220915-
/O.CAN.KEAX.FF.A.0013.000000T0000Z-190822T1500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-Platte-
Clay-Ray-Carroll-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-
Pettis-Cooper-Bates-Henry-
Including the cities of Atchison, Paola, Osawatomie, Louisburg, 
Pleasanton, La Cygne, Mound City, Fort Leavenworth, Leavenworth, 
Lansing, Kansas City Kansas, Overland Park, Stanley, Olathe, 
Shawnee, Lenexa, Parkville, Platte City, Riverside, 
Weatherby Lake, Weston, Gladstone, Liberty, Excelsior Springs, 
Richmond, Lawson, Carrollton, Kansas City, Independence, Odessa, 
Higginsville, Lexington, Concordia, Marshall, Fayette, Glasgow, 
New Franklin, Belton, Raymore, Harrisonville, Pleasant Hill, 
Warrensburg, Sedalia, Boonville, Butler, Adrian, Rich Hill, 
Clinton, and Windsor
310 AM CDT Thu Aug 22 2019

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

The Flash Flood Watch for portions of Kansas and Missouri has 
been cancelled. 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1255 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019

.Discussion...
Issued at 410 AM CDT WED AUG 21 2019

Satellite imagery shows a northwest flow developing across the
northern and central Plains early this morning in response to a
trough that is shifting into the northern Plains States, where it
will sweep across the Great Lakes in the coming days. And, it is
this trough that will be primarily responsible for the nice
weather (afternoon highs in the 70s to low 80s) expected to
prevail for the tail end of the work week and the coming weekend
as it sweeps a seasonally cool surface high sweeps into the
region. But, first we will have to deal with a couple days of
stormy weather.

Looking across the Plains, a lee side surface low has developed
across the front range of the Rockies in response to the cool
surface high the northern Plains trough is ushering into the
States. This has resulted in a frontal boundary stretched from
west central Kansas through southeast Nebraska into central Iowa
early this morning, which a diffluent nocturnal jet has developed
along, inducing strong warm air and moisture advection across
northern Kansas and southern Nebraska, where precipitable water
values of 2.1 inches has pooled. All this, in turn, has sparked a
line of strong to severe thunderstorms across central Nebraska
southeast into extreme northeast Kansas and far northwest
Missouri, which will be of concern well into the morning, and will
perhaps set the stage for more storms later today.

Storms in northeast Kansas and northwest Missouri will continue to
percolate along through sunrise as the low level jet keeps feeding
warm, moist air into the storms from the southwest. These storms
will be rather strong, but pulsy, as there is lots of instability to
work with (MUCAPE values > 4000 J/KG) but hardly any shear. This
will make large hail and damaging winds possible with these morning
storms, but will also bring a threat of flash flooding as the storms
look to train over the same locations of northeast Kansas and
northwest Missouri during the morning hours. There is some
expectation that the storms will spread east across far northern
Missouri this morning, which could lay out an effective boundary
from the rain induced cold pool for the afternoon hours. Models key
a bit on this cold pool as the shortwave trough swings through the
northern Plains to generate more scattered storms through the
afternoon hours. Confidence in the development of the afternoon
storms is a bit low, but can not ruled out, so have kept likely
POPs going for now.

Tonight into Thursday the cool surface high across the northern
Plains will slide farther south, and with it the frontal boundary
along its leading edge. This will move the focus for storms south
late this afternoon and through the overnight hours, with any late
night storms likely being rather strong, as there will be plenty of
instability aloft to work with.  Additionally, flash flooding may be
a concern given that precipitable water values pooled along the
boundary will be just over 2 inches. And, while we do expect the
activity late tonight to slowly settle south, it will do so slowly
enough to leave storms likely from eastern Kansas across central and
southern Missouri into Thursday afternoon.

Thursday on into the weekend...will see lovely temperatures in the
70s to low 80s prevail as a cool surface high slides across the
region. This will also move the focus for storms into Southern
Missouri for Thursday and Friday nights. Can't rule out any more
storms thanks to the nocturnal jet and abundant moisture in place
across the Plains States, but for now much of the weekend looks dry
across our section of Kansas and Missouri.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1255 PM CDT WED AUG 21 2019

A cold front is working its way through the area and is currently
located just northwest of I-35. This will be the main focus for
storm chances this afternoon and overnight. Isolated to scattered
storms are expected to start developing this afternoon with
coverage gradually increasing to widespread for the overnight
hours. Generally, the best chances for storms will be south of HWY
36 this afternoon and evening and then south of the MO River
overnight as the front slowly moves south. Storms won't move out
until late tomorrow morning. Winds will shift to the northwest as
the front moves through then should shift to the northeast
overnight as high pressure moves south and east across the
Midwest. Ceilings and vis will likely drop to MVFR with storms
overhead. Once storms start exiting the area, ceilings are
expected to drop to low end MVFR and perhaps IFR along I-70 and
south. Conditions should quickly improve in the late morning and
early afternoon across the entire area as high pressure builds in
from the north.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

Discussion...Cutter
Aviation...Atkins

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
541 AM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-221045-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
541 AM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

 Thunderstorms will persist this morning across northeast Kansas and
 northern Missouri, with the potential for storms to linger into the
 afternoon hours, and redevelop tonight. Torrential rain expected as
 the primary threat today and tonight, though large hail and
 damaging winds cannot be ruled out.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

 Periodic chances for thunderstorms will continue through Thursday.
 A few of these storms may be strong, with torrential rain the
 primary threat.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1030 AM CDT WED AUG 21 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0106 PM     TSTM WND DMG     COUNTRY CLUB VILLA      39.83N 94.82W
08/20/2019                   ANDREW             MO   BROADCAST MEDIA

            **DELAYED REPORT**...LARGE LIVE TREE DOWN.

&&